100 reformist Iranian MPs have quit the Iranian parliament today in protest at the disqualification of over 2,000 parliamentary candidates by Iran’s Guardian Council.
My first impressions were relatively positive - perhaps this will push a confrontation that will at a minimum will force the Guardian Council to back down, and maybe even stir the passions of the people enough that they will insist on real reform. But now I’m less sure.
Looking more carefully it appears that 80 of the 100 MPs who resigned are already on the blacklist, and therefore not able to stand in the current election. They are in a situation right now where they have little to lose. But very few of their colleagues who actually are able to stand in the election seem to be supporting them at this stage. And ‘reformist’ President Khatami has ‘coincidentally’ fallen ill with back problems, taking him out of the political limelight for the time being.
I sense that the majority of Iranian MPs are really waiting to see how the public reacts to the resignation of the 100 MPs. If the public takes up the issue, then I am sure these reluctant MPs will leap into the fray (and Khatami’s will make a timely recovery from his back problems) to flaunt their democratic principles. But if the public support seems weak, I imagine the fuss will rapidly die down with a behind the scenes compromise being made to ensure that those who didn’t resign keep their seats.
The sad thing is, I don’t really see the public getting behind the 100. Perhaps they would if the rest of the Iranian MPs were prepared to make a stand, but they won’t do that unless they know that they have popular public support.
