Following hot on the heels of Ukraine’s presidential elections, both Kygyzstan and Tajikistan will hold parliamentary elections on 27 February.
The Argus will be running regular briefings in the runup to both elections - the first is here. Nathan has also has another great post weighing the chances of a ‘Lemon Revolution’ in Krygyzstan.
I’m wary of predicting these kinds of things because events have a way of surprising us. Georgia surprised the heck out of me, as it apparently did the rest of the world. While I doubt it, the Kyrgyz may pull something surprising off.
I’d also be pretty cautious about predicting any kind of major revolution in either of these countries along the lines of Georgia or Ukraine. I very much doubt we will see any change in either governing regime. But, hopefully, we will see the beginnings of a confident democratic opposition emerging, especially if the West makes it clear that it would not simply turn a blind eye to persecution of opposition groups. The increasing inroads that NGO’s are making into Kyrgyzstan especially, as Nathan points out, will be of great support to opposition groups.
