Russia’s falling population

by Andy on July 21, 2005

Check out A Fistful of Euros for a huge (and I mean HUGE) and in depth discussion of Russia’s demographics, particularly it’s rapidly decreasing population. A wide-ranging discussion, it covers scientific theories (complete with scary equations), the impact on Russia itself, and the potential impact on Russia’s neighbours. This is the paragraph that kicked off the whole discussion:

If anything I would now say that I was underestimating the losses to the population of Russia in the future. The current official projection (medium) by the Russian State Statistical Agency is some 101 million in 2050. [July 2005 estimate of current population is 143 million.] My expectation is that the number will be closer to 75-80, approximately the level of worst-case scenario. The current and imminent number of deaths from HIV/AIDS is much worse than anticipated, as well as the number of deaths from tuberculosis. In addition, hepatitis C deaths will, ceteris paribus, begin to be devastating at the end of the next decade. None of these health factors were incorporated into the projection model of the Statistical Agency.

Now, I’m the first to admit that I know nothing about demographics. So, time for a dumb question. If Russia’s economy maintains a reasonable level of growth (primarily fueled by the energy/resource sector) and at the same time Russia’s population declines in the order of 50% to something around the 70-80 million mark, won’t those remaining be twice as well off as if Russia’s population level had remained steady at 143 million? Wouldn’t that turn Russia into a country approaching Western European levels of per capita GDP?

Or am I just being insanely optimistic?

Tagged as: Domestic Politics

{ 5 comments }

Doug Muir 07.21.05 at 1:14 pm: Hi Andy,

The short answer is, yes — if Russia’s economy grows even modestly, but the population shrinks, then per capita income will grow and everyone will get richer.

However, this is going to be a hell of a trick, because the economy will have to adjust to much lower levels of labor participation. Not easy.

Here’s one example. The Russian birthrate trended down through the ’70s, but it crashed after 1987. Today Russia has about twice as many 25 year olds (born in 1980) as 12 year olds (born in 1993). Now, those “empty cohorts” are starting to move into university and entry level jobs. In 10 years, Russia will still have decent numbers of 35 and 40 and 45 year olds, but hardly any 20 or 25 year olds.

Adjustments will have to be made, and they won’t be easy.

Doug M.
Holly 07.22.05 at 1:56 am: We are touched on this briefly in my geography class at Middlebury. The growth rate in Russia right now is -7/1,000. If it weren’t for the large numbers of immigrants coming into the country, that number would be even higher.
I agree with Doug, that it works on paper. Whether it works in reality is something that time will only tell.
Alexei 07.22.05 at 9:00 am: If resource sectors like oil, gas, metals and timber retain their share of the GDP, given they don’t require that many workers, your conjecture sounds quite reasonable. Especially if people in the areas and sectors that don’t contribute much to the GDP die out faster than the rest. But all other things just can’t stay fixed.
ElamBend 07.24.05 at 9:11 pm: This also supposes that the rapid loss in population doesn’t lead to cascading failures of institutions accross the country.
Also, Eastern Siberia is going to look mighty juicy to a powerful China, especially if all that is holding it is a rump-Russia.
Roger 07.28.05 at 1:13 am: Hello

Agree to allcomments.
Just want to add 1 twist to the subject .If its going to be 75 or 100 million russians in 2050i dont know but what i do know is that based on differential birthrates between the different ethnics in Russia the proportion of muslims in russia in 2050 will be a substantial minority at least 30 % strong in the absence of substantial migration flows and if it will be a 75-80 million strong total pop. in russia in 2050 my prediction is there will be a majority muslim pop. in Russia in 2050 (if not chinese).
Today in Russia the highest deathrates are by far in ethnic russian areas of Russia and lowest in muslim areas whereas the opposite is true of the birthrates.
then if you tell me it does not mean anything if it is muslim pop. majority in Russia or not that is of course another thing.
In my view it means everything and this i have said since long before 9-11.
It is also true that it is tremendous rise in interethnic marriages in Moscow especially and often between caucasian muslim men and ethnic russian women.