Laurence Jarvik wonders if the expiration of Kosovo’s UN Trustee status in 8 months might spark a confrontation between Russia on the one side, supporting Serbia, and the US and EU on the other, recognising Kosovan independence…
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{ 7 comments }
Tim Newman 08.19.05 at 8:03 am
Maybe if the Russians send troops they will see fit to feed them this time, eh?
venichka 08.19.05 at 10:45 am
Seems a bit unlikely to me. Or extremely unlikely - as unlikely as the “civil war” threatened in Ukraine by Yanukovych’s henchmen last year.
Kosovo still remains a flash-point for sure, but I really can’t believe that the USA or the EU would be so stupid as to grant Kosovo independence. So many reasons why they shouldn’t. Serbia and Montenegro as a whole is just too unstable (and Bosnia not much better). I imagine some kind of decentralisation within Kosovo (so that both of the main ethnic groups have clearly defined rights and representation) that is restored to some kind of loose control of Serbia is the most likely, and certainly the most desirable outcome. Serbia has made (fairly great) moves away from its extreme nationalist recent past, and breaking away its historic heartland would only have disastrous consequences for the entire region. Can’t see it happening, really.
Andy 08.19.05 at 11:25 am
I don’t think there will be even a hint of a military confrontation between Russia and the US/EU over the status of Kosovo, and (putting words into Laurence’s mouth) I doubt he does either. The confrontation will be political.
In eight months time, Kosovo’s status as a UN Trustee expires, and it is clear that something will have to be done about it. While extending the trusteeship is the most likely option, it is one that still contains plenty of room for dispute in the UN Security Council. A resolution on the future status of Kosovo is by no means guaranteed.
The EU and US on the one hand will be under pressure to recognise it’s independence, and I’d imagine they will be very tempted to set a clause in any future trusteeship agreement that sets out a timetable for Kosovan independence. And Russia will probably fight this all the way - I think they will push for a trusteeship agreement that includes steps for re-integration into Serbia, probably with substantial autonomy for Kosovo.
So, what we’ll have is two competing ideas of what a new trusteeship should look like, and a debate - conflict? - that becomes increasingly urgent and increasingly bitter as those eight months gradually run out. Because if, at the end of those eight months, no agreement is reached - what happens to Kosovo then? What if the KLA re-emerges and unilaterally declares Kosovan independence?
venichka 08.19.05 at 1:50 pm
I think Andy is largely correct in his analysis, but I am not convinced that there is sufficient pressure on the EU and USA to press for (even) eventual independence for the province.
Neither of those two groups feels the same commitment/intimate sense of religious attachment and historic belonging to the region that Russia does (to Serbia); and the EU, in particular, as a result of its involvement elsewhere in the Balkans, must surely be wise enough (one hopes!) to know where to draw the line with regard to actions that would likely have a destablizing effect in several countries of the region. Meanwhile, the USA is now more concerned with other parts of the world than it is with the Balkans, as a matter of first priority.
I think a prolonged or extended trusteeship is a possibility, but am not sure that the fundamental interests of Russia, the EU and the USA are necessarily, fundamentally, in contradiction with one another here. My bet would be that the final document will NOT set a timetable for Kosovan independance, and that the international community are unlikely to promote such a state of affairs in the foreseeable future, at least for as long as the long-term status of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro remains essentially uncertain, and while Bosnia and Herzegovina continues in its present “half united, half divided” disastrous form.
Hektor Bim 08.19.05 at 4:23 pm
I’m fairly certain that independence for Kosovo is inevitable. Russia doesn’t care enough about it to put up much of a fight, and Serbia wants to be in the EU very badly. Everyone involved there on the US and EU side who isn’t French is basically in favor of independence, and the Kosovars will accept nothing less.
It’s likely that Serbia and Montenegro will split, and the Bosnia will be more integrated in the future. The Serbs have essentially lost everything, and are only beginning to figure it out.
Russia has much less leverage about this now that their only supporter is Belarus, and they can’t really offer the Serbs anything like the deal they will get from the EU. So the Serbs will knuckle under, and that is probably the best solution for everyone.
venichka 08.19.05 at 4:52 pm
hmmm… I’d have thought that Russia cares enough to squabble about Kosovo, at least. (How frequently one reads articles in the quality Russian press, Izvestiya, etc, at least on-line, talking of the “evil” (zlo) acts committed by Albanians in Kosovo, for what that is worth. And the word is probably not an understatement given the state of near-apartheid that exists there now. It’s interesting that the (perceived) tribulations of Republika Srpska, or, in general, of Serbs in BiH, barely get a look-in in the same forums of discourse.)
And Serbia wants to be in the EU very badly? Not sure, some elements certainly do, but there is probably a stronger anti-EU (one might even say mediaevalist) movement there than in pretty much any other contender nation for EU applicant status….
And they will have to wait a long time, 10 years at least… (not least because of two recent EU-related developments in France, the rejection of the European Constitutional Treaty, and the amendment to the French Constitution pertaining to future EU expansion)… while the EU may well appear less attractive in the future.
The point is that Kosovo is the spiritual heartland of Serb identity. It’s where the patriarchate is, not even mentioning events of a certain year between 1388 and 1390. (I know this is a slight simplification, but I don’t think it’s an understatement to say that Kosovo is to Serbs what Jerusalem is to Jews)
Are there even moderate Serb parties saying that they should give this land away? Maybe there are (I’m not a specialist in Serbia), but if so, I haven’t heard of them?
I’m deeply pessimistic that BiH will be more unified in the foreseeable future, whatever efforts the truly splendid Ashdown may make in the short term. The EU may well help in that regard, but if the fires of Serb nationalism are stoked - as giving away Kosovo would surely do - the situation is not going to be calmer. Not even to mention Albanian irredentism… whhat then in Macedonia?
An independent Kosovo would be a disaster
Hektor Bim 08.24.05 at 6:46 pm
Venichka,
You’re basically spouting the soft Serbian-nationalist line here, but I’ll try to address it clearly.
I don’t really know what you’re talking about re Republika Srpska. They got more land than they deserved, and they got to hold on land where they massacred the previous inhabitants. And this is after they lost the war!
You’re quick to mention evil acts by Albanians in Kosovo now, but I’m pretty sure you spilt no tears for the Albanians massacred under milosevic, packed into freezer trucks and dumped into Serbian rivers. Which is odd of course, because some of them were Orthodox. It’s interesting that Slavic brotherhood is more important than sectarianism to the Russian press.
There is really no hope for Serbia except in the EU. The economy is a mess, all their neighbors fear them for their past militaristic antics, and Russia certainly won’t save them. There is no other option. There’s a difference between what people will say in public and what they believe. Many parties have written off Kosovo - it’s just the crazies that talk about it often now.
Macedonia, unlike the idiots in Serbia, was able to recognize albanian cultural rights in the framework of a united country, and thus avoided a lot of bloodshed. While they aren’t political giants, at least they weren’t as dumb as Serbia’s political leaders.
Why would independent Kosovo be a disaster, precisely? It’s about the same size as Macedonia, more ethnically homogeneous than most states in the area, and is likely to be more prosperous than Serbia (for example) at least in the medium term.
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