Following a heated debate which turned into a personal slanging match, I’ve decided to introduce a formal comments policy.
It’s a very simple policy, which reads as follows: Political views of all stripes are respect ed at Siberian Light, but play nice, don’t abuse my hospitality, and don’t throw personal insults around.
Up until now, I’ve tried very hard to keep the comments on Siberian Light as lightly moderated as possible, hoping that this would encourage people with a wide range of views to engage in debate. I had (and still have) no problem with those debates becoming heated - this is a politics blog, after all - but I draw the line when commenters start to post unsubstantiated personal insults instead.
I run Siberian Light in my own time, because it is something I enjoy doing. I simply don’t have the time, or the inclination any more, to try to calm disputes between people who act like spoilt five year olds and are happy to hide behind the pseudo-anonymity of their computer screens.
Therefore, I reserve the right to delete any comment that I feel doesn’t meet the above criteria.
Anyone who doesn’t feel comfortable with this policy should consider posting comments on another blog.
April 5th, 2007 at 1:09 am
I feel for you. It’s a bummer. Apologies if I contributed to any of that.
April 5th, 2007 at 2:56 am
Feel free to delete away. This is your turf. Cheers Patrick
April 5th, 2007 at 4:59 am
Spam, spats, and sex make up 99% of the internet…
I must have missed the interesting conversation that sparked this.
And I just noticed that somehow I ended up with a double trackback to another one of your posts — sorry.
April 5th, 2007 at 8:09 am
I also apologize.
April 5th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Andy - you continue to impress as one of the more earnest folks dealing with former USSR related matter.
I did offer to take back from you pointed out. Mud slinging is an interesting topic. What constitutes it? Crude misguided stereotypes against Russia and Russians, followed by “personal attacks” against those reflecting a Russocentric view (as defined in my Siberian Liaght interview) appear to be given a greater clearance. I believe that this is often the result of a subconscious misunderstanding, due to the the predominance of some views over others.
I’m a human being and not a programmed robot, spewing out a party line perspective. In point of fact, I spend a good deal of time comprehensively reading and listening to what my political opposites say. From the get go, I grew up in an environment which often force fed anti-Russian views. This contrasts from those who did the same, while not critically thinking as much in terms of second guessing this environment.
I’ll try harder to be more academic. I’ve in fact done this. One can only have so much patience. Please make note of what I said regarding misguided stereotypes against Russia and Russians, as well as personal taunts going in a particular direction.
April 5th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
I also apologise - yours is a fine site Andy. Please reconsider your policy. I personally promise not to comment anymore and I’m most responsible for that mess. Its just a pity to ruin it for everyone else because of my and another persons bad behaviour.
April 5th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
Disregard the above -not the apology abviously - I thought you meant that all comments were being checked before publication, LR-style. Again sorry and I promise not to misbehave anymore.
April 6th, 2007 at 4:06 am
Let’s hopefully not retreat to a self censorship.
Criticize ideas as opposed to individuals’ qualifications is a good rule to follow.
Understanding what makes the other view to your own tick is another.
Ger:
Regarding that reference you made, someone showed me that site’s latest commentary on Kosovo.
Yugoslavia wasn’t exactly invaded (part of it was) and Milosevic for whatever his faults wasn’t a “genocidal madman”.
What’s really demagogic about that piece is how the author or authors knowingly keeps out the contrary views to his/her own.
I might’ve something out on this shortly.
April 6th, 2007 at 9:15 am
Ger - no need to stop commenting. The only comments that would be affected by this policy are ones that are personally offensive (and stuff like spam, obviously).
There will be no pre-moderation of comments as such, although the odd genuine comment does get trapped in the spam filter, and forwarded to me for pre-approval.
Mike - I have absolutely no intention of censoring people’s views. The people who comment on this Siberian Light have a wide variety of political views, which often results in some intriguing debates. I think that this variety of opinion is one of SL’s strengths, and I’d have to be absolutely nuts to discourage it.
April 6th, 2007 at 11:12 am
Mike - I dont know what reference you are referring to - are you sure it was me?
Am actually quite freaked out this morning with the climate report. The most damning and scary thing? Russia. Russia did not object to the wording like the US, India and China did. The Russians understand full well what’s going on. This winter, or lack of winter, has really scared Muscovites. There’s big trouble ahead and its going to be in our lifetime.
I’m a chemist and have spent the last hour trying to figure out reactions of CO2(am on a day off!). It just so happens that CO2 is a tricky little molecule that requires a lot of energy to convert it to something else.
Wonderful.
April 6th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Ger:
You referenced someone or perhaps conglomerate. Which ever, it recently gave a positive and 100% non-critical reference to what Vladimir Socor recently said about matter concerning Kosovo.
Andy:
I’m glad to read that feedback from you.
April 6th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Mike -I cant remember what I said -was it re Russian culpability for the Ukrainian famine?
April 7th, 2007 at 1:57 am
Re Climate Change: I was in Siberia over the winter this year and the locals were a little surprised and nervous about the warm temperatures. In fact they were joking about there being a shortage of snow and needing to buy snow to be able to make the snow city which is in the pictures section of my blog. However, warming of the climate is no laughing matter, just like in Alaska, lots of oil production in Siberia depends upon the land being frozen solid for much of the year.
April 7th, 2007 at 8:28 am
I thought it was absolutely damning that Russia had no argument with the wording of the climate report at all. It says everything. Russia, with such huge hydrocarbon interests, has no argument with a report blaming humans for climate change. It’d be like Pamela Anderson having no objection to the banning of bikinis. The Russians, as you’ve said above, know full well whats going on and unlike China and to some extent the US the Russians are very nervous indeed. All the talk in Moscow is about the weird winter. Its getting very worrisome. I’ve seen on tv as well the situation in Siberia is even stranger than in Moscow.
April 7th, 2007 at 11:23 pm
However, warming of the climate is no laughing matter, just like in Alaska, lots of oil production in Siberia depends upon the land being frozen solid for much of the year.
It will be far easier to increase production should the temperatures increase.
April 8th, 2007 at 12:26 am
I read somewhere before that because of Arctic melting there’ll be far more access to new oil fields, is that true Tim? Its hugely ironic) Whats your winter been like on Sakhalin? As cold as usual? What are the locals saying about it?
April 8th, 2007 at 5:28 am
It will certainly be easier to access oilfields if they are not covered in ice all year round. Currently, the Molikpaq platform sitting offshore Sakhalin can produce all year round, but can only offload during the summer months. The platform shuts down for maintenance in winter, but it is extremely hard to do maintenance work in subzero temperatures, as paint, adhesives, etc. take days instead of hours to dry. It would certainly help the Sakhalin oil industry if the weather warmed up a bit for the next 20 years.
The winter in Sakhalin has been exceptionally mild, and all the locals are saying so. But nobody seems to mind. I can’t understand why all the Muscovites are getting upset at the short winter, most Russians hate the winter and can’t wait for it to be over. Anyway, nobody here has been talking about global warming, and I think anyone suggesting that Sakhalin Islanders should take steps to reduce their energy consumption and shun oil and gas production in the name of keeping the winters from getting warmer would be met with howls of laughter.
April 8th, 2007 at 8:19 am
Its a kind of contradiction all right, asking to reduce fuel consumption to ensure a colder winter) The Muscovites are just a bit freaked I think. Its been so warm, its just not right. Usually they are moaning all the time about winter and wishing it away but not this year -which amplifies the point. I got a text from home saying people were actually sunbathing in Ireland yesterday -23 degrees and sunny, more than enough to get our women out. In early april. Now that REALLY is not right! After all my talk i just saw Russia did raise objections to the wording after all, but werent as vociferous as China and India. Pardon my lack of knowledge, but where does that platform store all the oil until summer? I dont know anything about oil and its quite interesting.
April 8th, 2007 at 9:56 am
Pardon my lack of knowledge, but where does that platform store all the oil until summer?
It doesn’t. It can in theory extract oil all year round, but in practice cannot because there is nowhere to offload it to. My point was that the surrounding ice does not prevent the oil being extracted, but it does prevent the ships offloading it and taking it away. This is a terrible utilisation of an oil facility, hence the need for the new and rather controversial pipelines.
April 8th, 2007 at 10:11 am
Thanks Tim. Thats what all the fuss is about -building pipelines to pump the oil away to refining. There’s some controversy in Ireland now about gas pipelines from the Atlantic going through the west. So, without pipelines the rig just cant work in frozen conditions because of shipping? Isnt that a huge waste?Is it just sitting there so until weather permits? Is a rig a stand alone supposed to balance its own books? Sorry for the questions, its just quite interesting.
April 8th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Not an expert on global warming, though I am becoming skeptical on the issue. Not going to argue on it though. The reason why Russia probably likes the whole politics surrounding CO2 emissions is that there is serious money to be made from it through carbon-credits. Remember, the carbon emission targets were set up before the great collapse of Soviet manufacturing, and there is no way in hell that Russian CO2 emissions are ever going to get back to that level, since much of it was due to stupidly inefficient wasteful production methods. So, once carbon trading becomes a matter of course, and everybody buys into it, Russia has a gazillion carbon credits it can sell:) and, it has nothing to fear from reduced consumption of fuel, because that’s not going to happen. It’s good for gas consumption, though, since natural gas is probably the cleanest burning of all the fossil fuels.
Whether or not Russian politicians believe in human induced climate change is totally besides the point. It’s great business for Russia one way or the other.
April 8th, 2007 at 11:22 am
I was terrified myself until yesterday, when I read Auger, a well known New Zealand climatologist, writing off the report as hysterical. Kiwis are just about the most level-headed people one could meet and if they’re calling it crap then I feel a lot better.
As for the Russian government not caring, I’m not entirely sure thats the case, and as I said above they did in fact argue against the wording, though maybe that was scientific argumement rather than trying to dampen down the report.I’m not sure you are correct about consumption- if the report is to be taken at face value and the whole world starts having a crap and takes the bus instead of the car, then consumption would surely reduce. It reduced significantly in the late 70s and early 80’s causing the price of oil to collapse which along with Chernobyl and Afghanistan helped bury the Soviet Union. I wouldnt say the Russian government had no interest in that report somehow. My point was that Russia, unlike Saudi Arabia, made no strong case against the report and Russia is second only to the Saudis in oil production, unless I’m mistaken. And i dont think selling carbon credits would make up for a massive shortfall in oil revenues. I found it a bit strange and disconcerting that the Russians hadnt more to say. Maybe you’re right though.
Natural gas is the cleanest(!) but it still produces CO2, the main problem. If the whole world switched to natural gas we’d still be heating up the world(if that indeed is what is happening). And as well as that Russia can hardly meet its own gas production commitments as it is, having to buy from Turkmenistan. I wouldnt like to be depending on a Russian monopoly of natural gas. Actually Germany wouldnt want to start too many rows with Russia) It could be a cold winter otherwise)
April 8th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Thanks Tim.
You’re welcome. Anytime.
Thats what all the fuss is about -building pipelines to pump the oil away to refining. There’s some controversy in Ireland now about gas pipelines from the Atlantic going through the west.
Usually the concern is environmental, and relates to what would happen should a crude export line rupture beneath the sea. The consequences of this would be severe, but unlikely: the pipelines are designed pretty well (in fact, I did a course in it myself). My guess is that the concern over the Irish gas lines comes largely from people who don’t know what they’re talking about but make a living from making objections. Just a guess.
Sakhalin is a bit different in that it is an earthquake zone and people are concerned the pipelines may rupture in a seismic event (I really am in no position to comment as to whether this is a genuine concern or not). The second is that the pipelines are affecting the feeding and breeding of the Western Pacific Grey Whales, whose only breeding ground is underneath one of the platforms (pretty much) and there are only about 10 of them left down from a population 50 years ago of 20. Or something. Either way, the Wetsern Pacific Grey Whale wasn’t doing tremendously well for itself before the oil companies started drilling, and it is likely that the recent activities aren’t helping. Fortunately, the Western Pacific Grey Whale is almost identical to the Eastern Pacific Grey Whale off the coast of California, of which there are loads. But don’t quote me on that, because it’s somewhat outside my area of expertise.
So, without pipelines the rig just cant work in frozen conditions because of shipping? Isnt that a huge waste?Is it just sitting there so until weather permits?
Yup! That’s about it. If the ships cannot get to the platform, they can’t offload the oil; and the ships can’t get through when the platform’s packed in with ice. So the rig shuts down when the ice arrives.
Is a rig a stand alone supposed to balance its own books?
At present it is stand alone. But two new rigs have been/are being installed along with a pipeline system which will transport the oil and gas to the southern tip of the island, where the sea doesn’t freeze and is accessible all year round. The oil will be offloaded there, and the gas converted to LNG before being put onto ships and sent to Japan and Korea. Once this system is in place, the rigs can operate all year and there is no need for them to offload their oil direct to a ship. The current setup is just temporary, put in place just to get some revenue in for 6 months of the year.
Sorry for the questions, its just quite interesting.
Not just interesting…well paid, too.
April 8th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
”Not just interesting, well paid too” - I wish I’d studied something like that now) Instead of analytical chemistry! My wife’s brother is studying at the ”Kerosinka”, the Oil and Gas University on Leninsky Prospect and seemingly he’ll be loaded when he’s finished and graduates. The University is well known for amoung other things its Chechen population -seemingly Chechens make fine chemists. Anyway its really a fascinating subject and thanks for the info.
The situation in Mayo in Ireland is quite like you called it. Shell have already bent over backwards for the few complainants and whatever enginerng alterations they’ve had to make have cost them a fortune. The complainants have already been put in jail for breaching court orders banning them from interfering with or blocking the pipeline. The government are over a barrel -they need Shell to pump the gas but at the same time have to appear concerned for the residents because an election is very near and their majority in parliament is wafer-thin. Loosing the seat in Mayo could put them out. I suspect the people involved arent getting a cut or are just moaning for the sake of it. I might be wrong but if a pipe is sealed and gas/liquid is not escaping, then there’s little danger short of someone making a hole then lighting a fag. However, the government have done something you touched on elsewhere -they sold something like vouchers to allow Shell to pump away and get a small cut also of what they’re pumping. I’m glad our state knew its limitations and steered clear of trying to control it. Actually, a UN ruling the other night means Ireland can now expand its territorial waters in Atlantic and allow us to tap into whatever goodies are under the sea. Maybe you’ll be making you’re way to Galway soon, the new Aberdeen?)
April 8th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
The decline of oil consumption in the 1970s was minor. 1973: 2753 MTOE; 1975 2677 MTOE.
Went straight back up, in 1976 it was again at 2852, rising all the way until 1979.
Oil prices during that time went up like stupid, from $14.52 in 1973 (2005 equivalent) to 46.07 in 1974.
After that, oil prices peaked in 1980 at 87.65. (all prices in 2005 values),
Then prices collapsed along with consumption.
There seems to be a very weak link between consumption of oil and its price… I have graphed it with the BP data, and it looks rather interesting….
and if you look at international gas consumption data…. it’s been all the way up - it only went down twice, from 1973-1974, and from 1996-1997. Those reductions were so small, however, you can barely see them.
April 8th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
re: soviet collapse and oil prices: i have yet to see evidence that the soviet collapse was caused by the soviets running out of money due to lower oil revenues…..
The connection between the oil prices and the soviet collapse was quite complex, and had a lot to do with the soviets refusing to further subsidise eastern european countries.
RM
April 8th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Platforms are quite different from land-based oil production facilities. The platform requires the water for boats to pull up, but in Alaska the oil can flow all year through a pipeline. The only time that you can arrive at the facilities by land is during the winter which is when large supplies are transported. You can arrive by air all year. If it were to thaw out, I am not sure that soil would support a road to arrive to the facilities even if were allowed by the government (environmental concerns). I suppose that we would find a way if that was our only option.
I must say though that I don’t work in production like Newman. When I started University, there was a joke going around that was something like this:
Q: What will a petroleum engineer ask you at work?
A: Would you like fries with that?
So I went into information systems and have ended up working in the energy industry anyway. For a little over a year, I worked with Alaska so I did learn some about their operations.
April 9th, 2007 at 2:46 am
RM, my likely poor information comes from Mikhail Gorbachev. I saw a Discovery Channel documentary marking the Chernobyl ten year annniversary just recently. Gorbachev said quite clearly the price of oil and Chernobyl buried the USSR (I didnt mention the COMECON countries, the revolutions in which Gorbachev categorically disregarded as having an impact on the USSR itself, which I’m not too sure is true). By the time the USSR died, the economy was in ruins. I cant reconcile in my mind how a cash shortage from low oil prices couldnt impact on the stabilty of the USSR. It doesnt make sense to me. Still, maybe Gorbachev was talking through his hat. I also cant see how stopping subsidies for the COMECON countries could have negatively impacted on the USSR itself. Seems to me that stopping handouts is hardly bad for the pocket.I also cant understand how if supply remains constant but consumption drops then the price isnt affected. Maybe oil is unlike any other commodity. I dont know.
Russophile: we had that line for Arts students,
”What do you say to an Arts graduate”?
”Burger and chips, please”
In fairness I think a lot of that was jealousy on our part. We had to derive the Schrodinger equation and the like, they had to write essays on all sorts of cool stuff. Its obvious which was more fun.
Were you in Alaska? Must have been amazing.
April 9th, 2007 at 3:26 am
I also cant understand how if supply remains constant but consumption drops then the price isnt affected.
This would happen were it not for the influence of OPEC, the cartel which controls 40% of the world’s oil production. They attempt to control the price of oil by controlling the production rates, and to a certain extent they are successful. If consumption drops, OPEC cut production to keep the price high; if comsumption rises, they increase production to prevent the price going too high.
The problem they have at present is that with the enormous consumption of oil by China and India, along with the Iraq war, disrupted supplies from Nigeria, and a Venezuelan president who is likely to send production rates crashing through the floor, OPEC is struggling to keep its production high enough to keep the price down. Although they want the price to remain high so they get more revenue, they don’t want it going to the point that alternative sources of oil, or indeed energy, become commercially viable.
Many of the OPEC countries are desperately trying to increase production. Their reserves are enormous, but years of complacency and laziness of the countries in question has left them faced with rising consumption but without the facilities of knowledge to deal with it. Until a few years ago, the North Sea was producing more oil than Kuwait, which has reserves many, many times greater. The reason I spent a year on the oilfields in Kuwait was to prepare the facilities for upgrading so that Kuwait could meet its OPEC production committments.
April 9th, 2007 at 3:36 am
Russophile, I’m guessing that joke was in use in the early/mid 90s when the oil price was low and the oil companies laying people off in their thousands.
These days petroleum engineers are raking it in.
April 9th, 2007 at 4:26 am
Thanks again Tim for the info, its been really eye opening and of course these days extremely relevant. I read one time, I dont know if its true, that Kuwait increased production in the 80s to offset the price increase that would have happened because of the Iran/Iraq war, is that true? Seemingly this was one of the reasons the Iraqs were so horrendous during the invasion. Also, from an oil executive’s point of view, whats your thinking on the climate reports? And the other question -is the world going to run out of oil anytime soon? You might have better answers to these than most people. A Kiwi I know visited Kuwait one time, said it was very interesting. Its quite difficult to get a visa seemingly.
The in-laws here are quite well off but they think it better for their son to go and work for Lukoil or somebody rather than running Daddy’s business, as well call it at home. Seems to me like its going to be a licence to print money for him. I think he’s studying drilling engineering or some such, I dont know exactly, I must ask, I know there are many disciplines within the college and therefore the industry. I know he’s not very talkative and therefore not really suited to being a businessman.
April 9th, 2007 at 4:34 am
Regarding soviet collapse from low oil prices: http://www.aei.org/events/filter.,eventID.1420/transcript.asp
The link is there, of course, but it had to do with a whole host of other factors of which the oil prices were only one.
I just throw this out here because there is this dumb-witted talk about drawing parallels between the Soviet Union and contemporary Russia and the impact of a potential fall in oil prices.
Here is my prediction: should oil prices today fall to, let’s say, $30/barrel, the impact on Russia’s economy and politics would be minimal.
April 9th, 2007 at 5:39 am
RM, I hope your prediction would turn out to be right, otherwise its home for Paddy here). Its one of LR’s favourite tunes, that an oil price collapse would bury Russia. I dont think its entirely ”dumb witted” though- if the value of your main export collapses in the absence of any replacements, its hardly going to be a good thing. Most of the stabilisation fund is made up of oil revenues. Mind you, doesnt look like the price of oil is heading down anytime soon(
April 9th, 2007 at 5:55 am
Yes, most of the StabFond is made up of that — which is why we have the StabFond. SHOULD oil go down to below the cut-off point, we would finally actually have to touch it……. Right now, it’s just sitting there and getting fat and fatter. Besides, there is always the other stuff to sell.. metals, processed metals, etc. Russia is moving away from being dependent on oil and gas, and it’s diversifying its economy quite nicely. Also, do not forget that should oil prices collapse because of an international demand slump, we would probably be dealing with a massive industrial production crisis — which would hit consumer goody exporters much harder than exporters of such vitals as oil, gas, and metals.
Russia is built on old-economy production, and the so-called old economy has yet to show any signs of dying;) It’s old, but not dead:)
April 9th, 2007 at 6:15 am
And Ger — if oil prices fall, why would you want to go back to Ireland? Don’t you think that any kind of global crisis is going to hit lazy old Europe much harder than incredibly dynamic Russia? Our economy here has been growing like mad — despite all that stupid government regulation and nonsense, and not just because of oil and gas, but because there is just so much need for growth here.
Regarding global warming:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/debate/singer.html
The more I read about it, the less worried i become. I would like to make a survey correlating belief in global warming to support for ‘organic agriculture’, opposition to ‘globalization’, and belief in the ‘medical’ uses of ‘homeopathy’….;)
April 9th, 2007 at 6:24 am
I read one time, I dont know if its true, that Kuwait increased production in the 80s to offset the price increase that would have happened because of the Iran/Iraq war, is that true? Seemingly this was one of the reasons the Iraqs were so horrendous during the invasion.
I really don’t know about this, but I can believe OPEC did try to make up the shortfall. I know Iraq was pretty horrendous during the invasion, though. Once I’d been to Kuwait and spoken to the locals about the invasion, the mayhem in Iraq where Iraqis are smashing the place to bits, killing each other, and looting everything ceased to be a surprise.
Also, from an oil executive’s point of view, whats your thinking on the climate reports?
Being in the oil game doesn’t help me much here, but personally I believe the climate is changing, but only a small degree of this will be due to mankind’s actions. The challenge for us will be to develop technologies and economies which will allow us to cope with the increased temperatures better, but to achieve this without throwing subsidies at special interest groups. I do not believe any of the scare stories which get printed regarding climate change, as there is a blatant political motive behind almost all of them, which is to exert greater government control over the population’s behaviour and to extract more tax, some of which will be passed to the special lobby groups and scientists who produced the climate predictions in the first place. I do not believe there is a complete concensus amongst the scientific community regarding climate change, and I am unimpressed by the actions of some in their attempt to silence any dissent from within their own ranks. Global warming IMO has been hijacked into a political project, nothing more. My feelings on the Kyoto Protocol reflect that, and can be read here.
And the other question -is the world going to run out of oil anytime soon? You might have better answers to these than most people.
Not a chance. There is easily enough oil to last us the next 100-200 years. The barriers to producing this oil are purely political, not technological. Were the countries of the Middle East, Russia, and certain others willing to allow western oil companies access to their fields (using a block licensing system and tax the production), the world would have plenty of oil for decades. Under the current system of mainly nationalised production, we will have to make the shift to non-oil based fuels much sooner.
A Kiwi I know visited Kuwait one time, said it was very interesting. Its quite difficult to get a visa seemingly.
Kuwait is about as interesting as my university fluid mechanics lectures. It is a patch of sand with an oil spigot on top, where you can’t drink, there are no clubs or bars, there is one shopping centre, and nothing to do whatsoever other than gawp at top line sport scars. Visas got a lot easier in late 2004, when Europeans and citizens of certain other reliable countries could get a visa on arrival.
The in-laws here are quite well off but they think it better for their son to go and work for Lukoil or somebody rather than running Daddy’s business, as well call it at home. Seems to me like its going to be a licence to print money for him.
The Russians I know working for Russian oil companies tell me it is pretty tough. The money isn’t that good and they don’t treat you well. Any attempts to quit are met by threats of physical violence. So I’ve heard, I have no evidence. But I am ready to believe it is no picnic.
April 9th, 2007 at 6:34 am
Here is my prediction: should oil prices today fall to, let’s say, $30/barrel, the impact on Russia’s economy and politics would be minimal.
I think a drop to $30 a barrel would be disastrous for Russia, and many other countries. Despite Russia’s progress towards a diversified economy, its governmental revenues are still massively dependent on exportation of raw materials, at a time when governmental expenditure is going to have to increase enormously over the next decade or so. Outside the two major cities in Russia, I have seen few signs that the economy is diversifying much at all.
April 9th, 2007 at 7:57 am
F***! Physical violence!? Gosh I hope not. I’ve heard the money is quite good though, but even if it aint he’s not going to be broke anyway I imagine. I’m shocked at your words though and hopefully its not the case. As bothers in law go, he’s a nice fella.
I have to take issue with you on fluid mechanics which is a fine, noble interesting subject!) You couldnt have a pint in Kuwait? Well, thats the end of interest for me)!
I feel a lot better having read your and RMs messages. I have to say, i woke up friday to all this climate news and it freaked me out totally. It really did. I was full of doom and gloom. But I’m starting to realise there are huge agendas at play and the truth of the whole thing is probably somewhere in between. Which hopefully means we wont be all toast in just 50 years after all.
April 10th, 2007 at 5:06 am
Yes, Tim, I started University in the early 90’s, so that joke is certainly old now. Ger, I too have heard it applied to lots of other majors, but this is the only time period I ever heard it applied to any engineering field.
The University Oklahoma posted average starting salaries for petroleum engineers of over $70K for last year. (It was a small reporting sample, but still highly impressive.) It took me years after college to bust that barrier, so was in shock for a few days after reading that because I had seriously considered studying petroleum engineering. The demographic trends (in the US, the average age of petroleum engineer is pushing 50) looked good, but the fear of the short-term market trends spooked me too much.
I never made it up to Alaska. I was scheduled to go visit the next year, but a great new internal opportunity came along. However, I spent a great deal of time on the phone with Alaska discussing their operations to ensure that our SAP system met their needs. Currently, I am working hard to try to get sent back to Russia because my wife wants to be closer to her family. Also, we are facing a uphill battle teaching our daughter Russian in the states. I think that I could teach her English without much issue in Russia, and I would like to live there again, so Russia is the place we want to be…
It is funny that the comments policy sparked this long conversation…
April 10th, 2007 at 7:43 am
70k? Thats good starting money for a graduate, bloody heck I wish I’d done that. We can take it so that Tim Newman is earning ten times that and we know who to ask for a few pints))
In fairness those graduate jokes cause real grief. The arts students of course used to joke that scientists and engineers were just uncultured, maths minded brutes). During our postgrad induction we all had to stand up and tell an audience of lecturers what we were doing for research. My mate was trying to make bone prosthetics from limestone(he succeeded), I was doing an EPO project(I worked in anti-doping for a long time) and then one of the arts graduates stood up and announced she was doing her thesis on ”the impact of museums on the social conscience of the general public”. Of course we had to hold in the laughs) To be honest though, such projects I’m sure have a use. I just dont know what it is) The girl was lovely though)
I have the opposite problem, i’m thinking of going home. I’m wondering if its the right thing to rear my son in Moscow, would it be easier at home. Me and the wife are getting fed up of this 100mph lifestyle. Moscow can wear the soul down. I’m waiting on a job offer in Galway and if I get it am tempted to take it. Both me and my wife like the West of Ireland and it might be a good idea to go home and get settled. You need to be made of tough material for Moscow and I’m beginning to think I’m not after all. Funny enough, at home I knew a Russian girl who’d come to Ireland working and met a local man. They eventually married and she went to live with him. However the man was from Carroroe in the Galway Gaeltacht. She had to learn Irish to understand what the in-laws were talking about) The trouble languages cause!
April 10th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
We can take it so that Tim Newman is earning ten times that and we know who to ask for a few pints.
Heh! Not quite ten times, but let’s just say I didn’t choose to work in Sakhalin because daytime TV was crap at home. The money here is very good, largely because very few expats can handle living here.
and the wife are getting fed up of this 100mph lifestyle. Moscow can wear the soul down.
I can well believe this. The sheer size of the place and the traffic is enough to do that. I am certain I will spend some part of my life in Moscow, but already I can see I’d not want it to be more than a few years at once.
April 11th, 2007 at 2:10 am
I have to be honest and say I’m a wimp. And its not like I have a busy expat sort of lifestyle, I dont really, its just the place is just hard on you. I cant explain it. I’m loathe to give LR a shred of a credit but she’s onto something when she talks about how hard life there is. Though I’m not on the rough end, you can feel the difficulty and hardness of the place and it eats into you a bit. You can see so many expats here, they end up alcoholics and are deeply unhappy. Going to the pub to watch Ireland play in the 6 nations only makes me feel worse, not better. I suppose weather has a lot to do with it and lack of sunshine. But at the same time, Moscow is an astounding place that never fails to amaze. As a girl(yes, good looking) I knew from Orekhovo Zuyevo used to say to me ”Moscow is a city of many allurements”. It certainly is that.
What kind of difficulties do expats have on Sakhalin? Does the fact that you’re married to a Russian make life easier, do you think? I know it’d be harder on me here if I wasnt.
April 11th, 2007 at 2:53 am
What kind of difficulties do expats have on Sakhalin?
The younger, single ones don’t really have too many difficulties beyond finding a decent apartment and a reliable source of food…they quickly start shagging a local and they’re happy enough for the 2-3 years they are here.
The older ones, be they single or married, have a tougher time. There is not much to do here unless you can speak Russian and are into outdoor pursuits, other than drink. In fact, that adequately describes most oil towns. The younger people don’t care as they are expected to all go out and drink and know it is temporary. But for some of the older guys, they end up drinking too much and getting involved with women half their age, and all the problems that brings with it - serious if you are single, catastrophic if you are married. Of course, many of them do fine here, but as I saw in Dubai, many of them fall into a spiral of drink, young women, and loneliness. I can imagine Moscow would be the same.
Does the fact that you’re married to a Russian make life easier, do you think?
It does, but maybe not in the way you think. If I was single here, like I was in Dubai for a long time, it would be good fun up to a point. I’d simply chase any good looking girl unfortunate enough to fall within my field of vision. But this got boring, and I settled down and got married. Were my wife not here, it would be hell. I couldn’t stand it. And if my wife were here but was a foreigner who couldn’t speak the language, work, etc. it would be exceptionally difficult for us. But given that she can have a normal life and job here, it makes life much easier for us, and hence easier for me.
As for it being easier for me because she is Russian and she can help me out with the finer points of their culture, that doesn’t really make much difference. I’ve always been pretty independent in Russia, and even though my wife helps me out a bit now and again, I could manage perfectly well in the practical sense without her.
April 11th, 2007 at 4:06 am
Your 2nd paragraph above applies absolutely in Moscow also. A lot of older expats have met their Borodino here. I personally know of situations with men having wives and kids at home and lovers in Moscow. It has to end in tears. And Moscow turns some people angry and bitter. Expat women here are generally obnoxious and drunk half the time. I avoid expat nights out these days. Moscow seems to a kind of magnet for unhappy westerners - a lot of people I know have no enthusiasm to go home for holidays etc, something I cant get my head round. You can see in their faces home doesnt mean a whole lot to them. Maybe any big city has the same.
I find the missus a great help though we have big arguments about Putin, Chechnya, all that kind of stuff. You made a point before about ordinary Russians not connecting their troubles with their leaders -I’ve got that at home! Putin is a hero and thats it and any critical points made by me are shot down! I dont dislike Putin but he wouldnt have the approval rating he has here if he were in charge of Ireland or another western country. Reform of the army, war in the south, dependence on oil - none of these things are the fault of the Russian leader) He’s only responsible for the good things)
I think that years ago I managed fine on my own here but now I’d struggle a bit here -I seem to have weakened rather than strengthened as time goes by. I think though that it makes a big difference coming home to a family here - coming home to an empty flat in Moscow would be hard indeed.
April 11th, 2007 at 4:38 am
Putin is a hero and thats it and any critical points made by me are shot down!
Fortunately my wife, even though she is a Petersburger like Putin, can see through his bullshit a mile away. She doesn’t speak about him very often, but the other day she mentioned that over the last couple of years she has noticed a constant and often subtle campaign encompassing all forms of media - television, magazines, even books - to give Russians a strong national identity, the leader of which is Putin, who - like a Tsar - is granted semi-Godlike status and can do no wrong.
Personally, I prefer taking the line that a politician should be required each morning to justify to his electorate why they shouldn’t hang him from a lampost and skewer him with pitchforks. Idolising political leaders is never healthy for a country, it’s much better to remain sceptical and remind them whom is supposed to serve whom.
April 11th, 2007 at 6:01 am
Wow! You guys are making me reconsider wanting to go back. I would certainly miss my current 10 minute commute and the nice park four blocks away from our house that my daughter and I walk to nearly daily to play on the playground.
Although, I am aware of the things that you mentioned because I saw the same situations when I lived there. The other group of expats that I found annoying were the complainers who of course never bothered to learn Russian.
Any big city is hard on a person, but Moscow is just worse. I think much of the frustration is caused by those heavy metro doors that are always trying to knock you down because no one gives enough of a damn to hold them open.
They are a metaphor for life in Moscow.
April 11th, 2007 at 6:35 am
I would certainly miss my current 10 minute commute and the nice park four blocks away from our house that my daughter and I walk to nearly daily to play on the playground.
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk is nice in that respect. You can call someone from across town, suggest you meet for a beer, and do so 20 minutes later. Or you go to work, forget something, then nip home and collect it. Try doing that in Moscow.
April 11th, 2007 at 8:41 am
You sound like you love it Russophobe! I can safely say there’s nothing you can do in 20 minutes in Moscow, not outdoors anyway). The sheer enormity -and it is so HUGE -means even the most trivial bit of business takes time. That inspite of the metro, which I’m still in awe of.
I try telling the wife that acting tough and bad language a good leader do not make. But I’m just ignored and she’s not thick by any means. Putin gets the credit for everything and blamed for nothing. Its the total opposite at home where politicians quite rightly get blamed for everything and credit for nothing. Hilarious.
April 11th, 2007 at 8:42 am
Sorry, RussoPHILE! Sincere apologies for that one!)
April 11th, 2007 at 11:38 am
Note of dissent: i think Putin has done, and is doing, quite a bit of things for Russia that would not have happened otherwise. The problem is that there is no alternative to him — and there wasn’t one before. Do any of you really think that the Yabloko jokers would be good for this country, or that Khodorkovsky would not turn this place into his personal fiefdom and a classic rentier state?
Putin is simply a symbol for everything that’s going right in Russia — all the bad things would happen without him in any case. I doubt, though, that many of the good things would have happened without him.
The guy is obsessed with stability, economic growth, and a sane (yes, you heard me, sane!) foreign policy.
The funny thing is that there hasn’t been a political leader in any country I have lived in before of whom I have approved as wholeheartedly as Putin.
What I hope, though, is that in twenty years this country can do without somebody like him. I wish Russia that one day it will be able to survive somebody as stupid as George Bush.
But for the time being, I hope that Putin has set the tone for how this country should be run.
Fiscally conservative, low taxes, pro-business, step-by-step fighting corruption (yes, I am serious about that one, too. Most business people I talk to here in Moscow tell me that corruption today is much more easy to deal with than before — in fact, many Russian companies begin to appreciate the advantages of not being seen as corrupt, and doing business with companies that are not seen as corrupt).
In any case, enough ranting, got to go back to work.
RM
April 11th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Gotta agree with that, RM. Well put.
April 11th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
RM you’re spot on. There isnt any alternative at all and he has done a good job generally. People like LR criticise Russian voters, but who else Is there? Yavlinsky? Kasparov? There isnt anyone at all. And I agree with his foreign policy -there’s nothing wrong with defending Russia’s interests and stating the obvious, that the world isnt too happy with illegal, unilateral military actions.
Khodorkovsky was a candidate only in his own mind and that of LR. I’d get more votes if I went into the election than him and I’m a Paddy.
My main gripe with Putin is the army. And yes I know he’s not minister for defence but the situation with conscription is a cancer on the country and just has to be dealt with. Its time it was scrapped. Sadly now that his time is nearly up and the attempts at reform have failed it looks like nothing is going to be done. The judiciary needs reform as well(in fairness, contrary to popular belief, Putin tried to reform this, but actually failed)
April 12th, 2007 at 7:02 am
Regarding judiciary: had a conversation with the director of one of the largest autoparts/consumer goods manufacturer here in Russia (it’s a Western company), and he said that in his experience, the judges are becoming better. Meaning, they start understanding issues better, ask the right questions, etc. (all in respects to companies dealing with bureaucratic blockheads). Same comments were made by the people who represent the software industry. It seems to me, from my limited talks with people, that a lot of below-the-radar screen changes are happening that are beginning to be felt now by some, and probably by more people soon.
Ditto customs: apparently, it’s becoming more and more difficult to simply under-declare the value of your cargo, and Russian companies are beginning to tell their foreign partners to do the importing themselves, as their ‘local advantage’ is declining.