This Monday US Secretary of State for Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice visited Moscow. They held negotiations with the current President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President-elect Dmitry Medvedev.

But the main negotiations are planned to be held on Tuesday, when the American guests will meet their colleagues – Anatoly Serdyukov (Minister of Defence) and Sergey Lavrov (Minister of Exterior). Their dialogue will be held in the same “two plus two” format as before.

On the eve of this meeting in Moscow Washgton made very careful predictions about its outcome. Before these negotiations US Minister of Defence Robert Gates shuffled all responsibility for the meeting’s success onto the Russian side:

“Russia needs to decide if it wants to be a real partner or not. From my point of view, we put a lot of things on the negotiating table. And now it’s high time for Russia to answer.”

Gates made it clear that no more new offers about anti-missile defence would be suggested to Moscow. Russian Vice-minister of Defence Alexander Grushko confirmed this, saying that:

“The negotiation process has not been finished yet. With any result, Russia will find reliable ways of providing its security. But our choice is to prefer cooperation and not confrontation”.

US anti-missile system placement: is there any hope for Russia?

Experts say that Tuesday’s negotiations will be devoted to the most pressing problem of Russia-US relations- the placement of US anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe countries – specifically, the Czech Republic and Poland.

Negotiations, which have been taking place between Russia and the US since February are close to their finish. And that is why we can conclude that placement of anti-missile elements in Eastern Europe is no longer a question of discussion. The only hope for Russia in the diplomatic meetings is to agree some acceptable conditions for all sides.

The last “two plus two” meeting took place last year in October. Then, according to, experts, some progress was made – in particular, some representatives of the US administration mentioned the possibility of Russian military inspections of anti-missile systems in Poland and Czech Republic.
Also it was suggested some tactical decisions, for example, not to direct radar in Czech Republic at Russia and not to place missiles in Polish mines. Moscow approved these initiatives, but in the protocol of negotiations these agreements were not fully resolved.

Anonymous sources in the Russian Ministry of Defence expressed regret that the Americans haven’t brought any new suggestions about the problem. According to the opinion of militaty officials, this means that future negotiations will be no more than a formal meeting. But for Russia now it is very important to decide how the Russian military will inspect anti-missile objects in Eastern Europe.

Also in October of last year it was discovered, that USA has been holding secret negotiations with Turkey about placement their anti-missile system. This information was given by press-secretary of Pentagon Jeff Morrell. When talking about Robet Gates’s visit to Ankara, he noted that.

“The main topic of discussion was military operation of Turkish army in Iraq. Moreover, he has duscussed plans of the development of anti-missile system with the President Gule and the Prime-minister Erdogan”

More recently, it was revealed that the US is discussing its participation in an Indian missile defense system.[Add text about India too, so I can link to old article.

All these facts leave less oportunities for Russia to significantly influence the anti-missile system placement, and don’t leave any room for optimism about Tuesday’s negotiations.

Russia’s Rugby Union team have climbed back to the summit of the European Nations Cup table, after a hard fought 12-8 victory over Romania.

The win, secured only with two last-gasp penalties, sets up an thrilling winner takes all fight for the title next month, as Russia host old rivals Georgia.

Romania, traditionally a European rugby powerhouse, were never going to be an easy opponent. Lying third in the table, they trailed Russia and Georgia by just one point at the beginning of the match.

But, in front of 3,000 screaming fans at Krasnodar’s Stadium Junost, Russia kept their nerve and came from behind to edge past a determined and well drilled Romanian team.

Last gasp victory

After taking almost the entire game to grind out a 6-3 lead, Russia looked well placed to run down the clock and secure victory. But the Romanian players clearly hadn’t read the script.

With just 12 minutes left to play, a magnificent drive by Romania’s forwards put replacement Valentin Ursache in position to score from a maul. The conversion was missed but the try was enough to take Romania into a narrow 8-6 lead.

Suddenly finding themselves behind, and with the game almost over, the Russians finally kicked into high gear. Romania managed to resist Russia’s relentless attacking play for 8 more minutes, but two penalties in the last four minutes from Yuriy Kushnarev, Russia’s fly-half, gave Russia a last gasp victory.

Russia vs Georgia – winner takes all title fight

Russia now find themselves top of the European Nations Cup table, three points clear of old rivals Georgia.

Georgia have a game in hand and if, as expected, they beat Spain, the Lelos will go back to the top of the table on points difference to set up a thrilling climax to the European Nations Cup tournament on 12 April.

Russia, who lost 31-13 to Georgia in Tblisi last year will be the slight underdogs. Although Russia have risen to 16th in the world rankings - their highest ever - they are still two places behind the experienced Georgians. And Georgia, as some regular commenters will recall, came within a whisker of dumping Ireland out of this summer’s Rugby World Cup.

But with three consecutive wins under their belt, and thousands of home fans behind them, I wouldn’t bet against the Russian Bears winning their first major title.

Check back in a few weeks for a full match report…

(Image Credit: Russian Rugby Union).

Aleksei Ostrovsky, head of the Duma’s Committee for CIS Affairs has recommended that the Russian Government create diplomatic missions at the territories of three unrecognized republics – Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Trans-Dneister (Pridnestrovie).

According to Interfax, the document, which has been prepared for discussion and further confirmation in the Duma, recommends that Russia work to “achieve representatives’ participation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie in all international organizations and forums, where their interests are discussed and touched.”

Also it was recommended that Russia should “resist firmly any attempts of external pressure – political, economical or military - concerning these three republics” and that the Russian Parliament suggest to the Russian Federation government that it“maintain existing forms of peacekeeping operations to settle conflicts around Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie based on mutual conventions”.

According to the report:

“Nowadays the situation in the zone of Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-Ossetia conflicts becomes more and more complicated. Politics realized by Tbilisi is extravagant, unpredictable and sometimes destructive. Georgia is trying to break existing algorithims of conflict settlement and compromise the Russian peacekeepers’ mission. This gives a reason to Abkhazians and Ossetians to believe that Georgian administration chooses military option”.

The report’s authors note that mandate of peacekeeping forces, which are operating in the territory of the conflicts between Georgia and Abkhazia, Georgia and Ossetia, only allows them to “split the rivals, maintain regime of security and stop the fire”. To change this mandate would require the agreement of all sides. But neither Abkhazia, nor South Osetia have given their agreement, because they are afraid the departure of Russian peacekeepers would lead to destabilization of the situation in the region.

The authors of the project believe that the precedent set in Kosovo, wich recently declared its independence will have consequences for other “frozen conflicts.” If these conflicts remain “frozen,” this will be provoke new stage of confrontation between conflict sides. And this confrontation will be negative for the population.

Nugzar Ashuba, the head of Parliament of Abkhazia, speaking in the Duma, asked Russia to recognize independence of this self-proclaimed republic as soon as possible. He told Duma members that:

“The Russian Federation now (after the Kosovo incident) has enough reasons to declare the independence of Abkhazia all over the world. By doing this Russia will establish its international weight.”

Ashuba also mentioned that the Georgian government must be interested in recognition new status of republic, because Abkhazia has proved that it was able to survive as an independent entity.

“We think that if Georgia recognizes independence of Abkhazia, its government will solve many other socio-economical problems and the Georgian people will be free from waiting for war every moment.”

The rest of the Duma’s discussion was closed to journalists, but according to one source, some Duma deputies consider that Russia has to support these self-proclaimed republics, because they will never be part of Georgia again.

It is the time to remember words of President Putin during the visit of Angela Merkel last week. He reminded us that case of Kosovo would have a lot of consequences for the world.

Now we have the beginning. Who is next?

Tonight, for the first time in more than a decade, top-flight Russian football will be played in Grozny, capital of war-torn Chechnya.

Terek Grozny, the city’s professional football team won promotion to the Russian Premier League last year and, after years of playing in exile, have finally been granted permission to play their home games inside of Chechnya.

The match between hosts Terek Grozny and visitors Krylya Sovietov Samara has attracted so much attention that the match will even overshadow this weekend’s match between last year champions Zenit St Petersburg and runners up Spartak Moscow.

Excitement

To celebrate, Chechnya’s Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov has announced that tickets for the match will be free to home fans, who will be able to take their first look at the inside of Grozny’s rebuilt 10,300 seater stadium. He’s also promised that Chechen fans will show “the real meaning of Chechen hospitality.”

Terek fans might be celebrating, but Leonid Slutsky, the Samara coach doesn’t sound entirely convinced the decision to host games in Grozny was a good one, though.

“If the FA decided that Terek should play their home games in Grozny, then so be it. I just hope they don’t change their mind a few weeks later and we would be the only ones who had played in Grozny.”

Chechnya is safe

Samara’s travelling fans will understandably be nervous ahead of tonight’s game - two wars in 15 years and an ongoing low-level insurgency aren’t exactly reassuring.

But Vladimir Putin, Russia’s outgoing President, has a lot riding on this game, as bringing Chechnya back into Russian society has been one of the key promises underpinning his eight years at the top. Any trouble tonight would reflect badly on him.

The Guardian newspaper reports that the Kremlin put heavy pressure on the Russian FA to allow Terek to host home games in Grozny, and demonstate that peace and stability has returned to the one time rebel capital.

You can bet that the police and army will be out in force today, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is confident that the game will go well.

“I can give a 100-percent guarantee that there are no terrorist threats here. I’m confident that the ability to see Premier League matches will be the most precious gift for our people.”

Terek’s Troubled History

Formed in 1946, disbanded in 1994, and re-formed in 2001, Terek Grozny have had a troubled history. But not a history entirely without success.

For much of the past two decades, Terek have been forced to play their home matches in exile, in Pyatigorsk. But since reforming in 2001, Terek have gone from strength to strength.

The high point of the club’s history surely came in 2004, when Terek Grozny stunned Samara to win the Russian Cup. The victory gave them a slot in European football’s prestigeous UEFA Cup. Sadly, after a qualifying round victory against Polish club Lech Poznan, Terek found the Swiss team FC Basel too strong for them in the first round.

2004 also saw Terek promoted to the Russian Premier League for the first time - an astounding feat for a club that was only in its fourth season since re-forming. Sadly the Premier League proved too tough for Terek during 2005, and they were relegated.

But two more seasons in the Russian First Division have given them the opportunity to build a solid, competitive side who, especially in front of their own fans, will be hoping to do stick around in the Premier League for quite some time.

Last Saturday Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel visited Moscow. Her visit corresponded with International Woman Day which is celebrated on the 8th of March. More importantly, though, Merkel was the first foreign leader to meet not only the current President, but also with President-elect Dmitry Medvedev. Thus, her visit was divided into two parts – formal part and informal one.

Putin met Merkel in his residence in Novo-Ogarevo and reviewed the results of collaboration between Russia and Germany:

“I hope it is not the last meeting with Frau Chancellor, but it is our last meeting while I am President. Our cooperation has been very good. For last 6 years goods turnover has increased 3.5 times and reached 50 billion dollars”.

Frau Chancellor agreed with him and said that it was necessary to look in future for more intensive cooperation between Russia and Germany. Moreover Putin and Merkel also held two-way negotiations and discussed questions of economic cooperation and current world problems.

Russia & Germany: what awaits us?

Some of the results of these negotiations reported during a press-conference, which was organized for German and Russian journalists.

Russia’s President stated that Russia would provide energy for Europe, and to ensure a more reliable supply, Russia will begin construction of gas-pipe with collaboration of Germany. This pipe will run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea and will provide a permanent supply of gas for European consumers. Also Putin promised to continue cooperation with Berlin to settle the situation about Iran, Afganistan and Middle East.

Merkel agreed with Putin, but added that, when it comes to diplomatic problems, each country has its own point of vew. The difference between both leaders’ points of view became clear when the press began to ask questions. For example, Putin called NATO’s expansion as not efficient and even harmful. He said: “I have the impression that the NATO block wants to replace the UN. It forces Ukraine to enter, but people there don’t want it”. On the contrary, Merkel considered that NATO is open to everybody, and had only function was defence against terrorism and other global chanllenges.

The Russian President also called the proclamation of Kosovo’s independence a precedent which would have consequences not only in Europe, but in many regions of the world. Merkel replied that Kosovo was a unique case.

At end of the press-conference Merkel said that she would be glad to work with the new Russian President - Dmitry Medevev - and she hoped that cooperation between Russia and Germany would be as intensive as it was with Putin.

Putin resumed the press-conference with the provocative statement:

“I see that some people are waiting for me to leave the post. They think that with another person as the President, things will be much easier. Medvedev doesn’t have the label of KGB person, but he is the same Russian nationalist (in good sense) as me. He is real patriot of his country and will be active in defending Russians’ interest in world politics”

In my opinion Putin with his statement gave another opportunity for world society to discuss who is the boss in the duet – Putin or Medvedev? But one thing now is clear: other political leaders can’t be relaxed with Russia’s new president. Russia will continue to defend its interests in the international arena.

We all thought he was laying the groundwork for a new career as Prime Minister… but it looks as though Vladimir Putin may have set his sights on a retirement job as the next great theatre director.

After he and his wife had watched 19th Century Russian comedy ‘Woe from Wilt’ at Moscow’s Sovremennik theater, Putin paid a surprise visit backstage, where he gave the cast and director the benefit of his notes. And, as you’d expect from a man who has led Russia for eight year’s, Putin didn’t mince words.

“Why did you show him [the main character] crying at the very beginning? One gets the impression of him as a weak person. He’s a strong man. He withstands everything that’s there. You showed him sniveling.”

Slightly put out, but knowing his place, the play’s Director Rimas Tuminas carefully crafted a reply that would shift the blame from himself onto the lead actor:

“You’re correct and I’m just glad that the actor has heard this.”

But, if nothing else, Putin’s years at the top have given him the super ability to spot a snivelling excuse at 100 paces, and the Director’s excuse received short shrift:

“The actor has nothing to do with this. He’s done what you told him.”

Ouch. By the way, is anyone else thinking of Stalin’s part-time career as the Soviet Union’s “super-movie-producer / director / screenwriter as well as supreme censor“?

Anyway, Putin - ever the media-aware politician - then went on to tell Russian media how the play related to current international politics. Referring to a scene when the lead character criticizes fellow Russians who fall all over themselves to adopt Western customs, he told reporters:

“This is a particular lesson for the new members of the European Union. I’m joking, I’m joking.”

Which will no doubt go down well in Eastern Europe.

Note: This is the first of a number of articles for Siberian Light by Tanya. You can identify who is the author of any particular post by checking the tag line just under the post title.

In late February it was discovered that India and USA have begun consultation at the high level about question of cooperation in the area of ballistic missile defence. According to a statement by Robert Gates, US Secretary of State for Defense, the question was about US participation in the development of an Indian ballistic missile defence system.

“We’re beginning to talk about conducting a joint analysis on what India’s needs would be in the realm of missile defence, and where co-operation might help advance that.”

This is a very important project for Deli, because India is facing threats from neigbouring states’ threats, especially from Pakistan, which has nuclear weapon. This expansion of military cooperation between India and USA implies certain consequences for geopolitics.

India’s entering to American influence is one more stage in the development of the so called Big Asia Belt, which includes all the countries from Turkey to Iraq, Afganistan and Pakistan to Indo-China. Russia left this region in 2003 giving up its base in Vietnam. As a result there are only two countries which are free of American military influence in this region – Iran and China.

Cooperation in the area of ballistic missile defence development gives the US an opportunity to include India in the global American anti-missile system. However, taking into account military activity in Caucasus, cooperation between Deli and Washington may lead to Russian concerns that any Southern missile defence system would also be directed at Russia. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact, that Robert Gates visit to India synchronized with preparations for the placement of the American anti-missile system in Czech Republic and Poland. And, at the same time NATO has been holding a summit where a key item on the agenda was whether to include Ukraine and Georgia as NATO members and whether to begin cooperation with these countries in the anti-missile sphere.

Does Russia still sell what countries want to buy?

Russia has been selling military equipment to India for many years. Also it has been negotiating for the last 5 years about the creation of an Indian missile defence system based on the Russia C-400 system.

However, Russia has not proved a reliable supplier, and a few big contracts have been broken. India accuses Russian producers, because they often don’t deliver on time, or ask for more resources. Moreover, India complains that Russian equipment is often of very low quality.

One of the biggest scandals happened 4 years ago. India discovered a lot of defects in the anti-air system “Shtil-1”, which has been installed on 3 destroyers. These system even couldn’t hit the target! As a result, a “Rosoboronexport” – Russia’s ams export agency – were fined $40 million.

Currently there is a conflict between India and “Rosoboronexport” which touches on reconstruction of the aircraft “Admiral Gorshkov”. Accordng to the contract which was signed 4 years ago, reconstruction of the aircraft must be done by 2011. But Russia recently said that expenses for modernization described in the contract were twice under-estimated. That is why Russia has asked to prolong the time of works and asked for more finances. The same thing has happened with other projects. One month ago India rejected to accept submarine “Sinduvijay” which has been reconstructed in Severodvinsk.

A lot of claims have been made against other projects: planes have defects which make them impossible to use, components are supplied with a huge delay and their quality is very low. All this makes India less likely to buy Russian military equipment. Currently India buys weapons in USA and following the recent visit of Robert Gates to India, it was decided to begin cooperation in the sphere of nuclear technologies.

Similar problems complicate relations between Russia and China. China already has given up to buying Russian military equipment. Algeria also refused to accept planes and tanks because their quality doesn’t correspond international norms.

Russian euphoria, which appeared in 2003-2005 with growth of orders for military equipment, resulted in over-estimation of forces and capacities by Russian organizations which were producers of military equipment. They signed more contracts for weapon supply than they could realize.

All this has almost destroyed the image of Russia in the sphere of militaty technologies. And in fact Moscow soon will find out itself sidelined in the market of military equipment, particularly in the Asiatic market.

In my opinion Russia will lose its place in the market, if does not take certain measures to improve of its image among countries currently looking to buy military equipment. In particular, it must ensure that it makes a realistic estimation of its capacities – financial and timings – and ensure that the equipment it supplies is of sufficient quality.

There are so many high quality posts out there at the moment, that I think I might just manage to get through a whole roundup without mentioning the election…

• First up are the first two posts from new blog Soviet Russia. An excellent look at the Cold War rivalry betwen US and Russian pilots, and then a post called Stalins Golden Cage, remembering the residential complex that became a symbol of Stalinist repression. By the way - did you know that Stalin died 55 years ago this week?
• Also well worth a read, if you’re into doom and gloom, is Executed Today’s latest Russian executionee - Georgy Nikolayevich Kosenko. Dmitry Minaev (of De Rebus Antiqus Et Novis) writes “a history of life and death of a typical spy from the early Soviet years.”
• Moving on to multimedia, Seesaw has also posted a video of Lenin giving a speech over at Russia Past and Present - complete with translation.
• One last history post before I move on. Head over to Coming Anarchy and learn about how Russia’s borders have expanded and contracted over the past millenium. Complete with some rather snazzy maps.
• In sports news, Timothy Post takes a look at the rise of Russia’s Ice Hockey league and asks - is it time for the NHL to merge with the Russian Superliga?Russia these days is all about business. And, if you’re a businessman in Russia today, you’d do well to take heed of these sage pieces of advice:
  • Upgradeski - the art of Business Class travel in Russia
  • How to negotiate in Russia
  • Is Livejournal the wrong place to host a Russian corporate blog?
• The newly redesigned Nosemonkey’s EUtopia writes about the forced closure of St Petersburg’s European University.
• Neeka reviews an episode of Vesti Nedeli - “It’s a gorgeous show, a great example of how perverted journalism has become here.”
• Ever wondered what здравствуйте & спасибо actually mean? Find out at Russian Language and Culture.
• Lydon at Scraps of Moscow writes: “The New York Times appears to have established a Russian-language community on LiveJournal where they are going to post some of their coverage of Russia and solicit responses… part of me thinks it could just be a really interesting hoax.” Sadly for the conspiracy theorists, he’s proved wrong.
• Did you know that Vladimir Gushchin, the Director of Internal Communications at RIA Novosti has a blog? Here, he writes about why India will buy a beat up old Russian aircraft carrier rather than a beat up old American aircraft carrier.
• Sad to say, con-artists abound in Russia - like everywhere else. Svet tells how someone tried to con her uncle - and failed.
• Want to see a Russia blogger on the tv? Russia Blog’s Yuri Mamchur is fast becoming a regular pundit over at Russia Today.

Election? What election?

• Ok I couldn’t resist. This election post is from English Russia, though, so it’s not too heavy. A quick look at propoaganda posters from past Russian elections. Didn’t they all look young and innocent?

• And, seeing as I’ve failed, here’s one more elections post. Sean has just launched his very own Russian elections awards show - the Vybor awards.

Right, that’s enough for this roundup. Til next time.

Dmitry Medvedev is Russia’s new President. But what kind of President will he be? Will he wield actual power, or will he just be the right hand man of outgoing President Vladimir Putin? Does the Bear have the stamina to survive in the bear-pit of Russian politics?

The way I see it, there are three broad possibilities for the coming years.

1). Putin is really the boss, and he intends to stay the boss. Either Putin will gradually shift power to the office of Prime Minister, or he’ll run for the Presidency again in 2012 after a caretaker Medvedev Presidency.

2). A planned transfer of power to Medvedev. Either Putin plans to gradually groom his successor, or he plans to surprise us all by retiring from Russian politics in May, while he is on top of his game.

3). An unplanned transfer of power to Medvedev. The Presidency is a constitutionally more powerful role than that of Prime Minister, and Medvedev may fancy his chances of success if he can slowly build his real power base to challenge Putin’s influence.

1 - Putin stays in power

Let’s face it, pretty much everyone in the West, and probably most in Russia too, thinks Putin plans to remain Russian top dog for some time to come.

Putin is, after all, a man in his political prime. He is regarded at home and abroad as the architect of Russia’s recent revival (even if the seeds were really sown during the last years of the Yeltsin Presidency, and watered by downpours of oil), and is immensely popular among the Russian electorate.

If I was in Putin’s shoes, I probably wouldn’t want to retire either.

So, if you’re President who has to resign at the end of his second term, but wants to legitimately remain in power, what do you do?

Simple. You find another powerful job, and find someone both reliable and malleable to take on the role of President. In this case, Putin has picked the role of Prime Minister as his ideal job, and Dmitry Medvedev as his reliable, yet malleable Presidential sidekick.

As Prime Minister, Putin has all the official constitutional excuse he needs to wield power. And, working with a President whose power base is thought to be pretty much non-existent beyond Putin, he shouldn’t face any real competition for power. The advantage of being Prime Minister, of course, is that there are no term limits. If he wants to, and he can pull it off, Putin could stay as Russia’s PM until the day he dies.

However, the disadvantage to being Prime Minister is that, technically, he serves at the discretion of the President. If Putin can’t find a way to change the constitution in the next four years, he might well consider that the safest option is to run back to the security of the Presidency in 2012.

2 - A planned transfer of power to Medvedev

Russia’s economy is booming - most people’s incomes have shot up during Putin’s rule, a middle class is forming, and the country seems awash with money. Of course, everyone thinks Putin is great.

But Russia’s wealth is built mainly on energy exports and record high prices for oil and gas. It’s economy hasn’t diversified, and the global economy is uncertain, at best. If oil prices crash, the Russian economy is likely to follow.

And if the Russian suffers another financial meltdown like 1998, guess who they’re going to blame?

Given the global economic uncertainty, now might seem a very attractive time for Putin to retire on top of his game, with his reputation intact. He could crack open the little nest egg he’s supposedly been stashing away over the past eight years and live a very comfortable retirement.

In this scenario, the only real question is when does Putin intend to retire? Does he intend to go out in a blaze of glory in May, or will he hang on a while to show Medvedev the ropes.

Going out in a blaze of glory has its attractions, of course, but it has its dangers too. Medvedev doesn’t have a massive power base and, while watching Medvedev struggle might have a certain appeal for Putin, it also opens him up to dangers. Putin has made many enemies during the past eight years and, in an uncertain country like Russia, protection is vital. A weak President can’t offer much protection.

It may well be best for Putin to hold off on retiring immediately, and spend a little time showing his acolyte the ropes.

3 – An unplanned transfer of power

For Russia, an unplanned transfer of power is probably the least desirable outcome – in the short-term, at least. Journalists probably love the idea, though, as few things sell newspapers better than an epic power struggle.

The position of President of Russia is a powerful one. As noted above, the President can technically fire his Prime Minister and Government at will. Both Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev know this.

Much has been made of Medvedev’s political weakness compared to Putin. He is widely regarded as Putin’s man. And, in a very real sense, he is. Without Putin’s sponsorship, Medvedev would probably be muddling along in regional politics, or have given up politics entirely in favour of a steady management job somewhere.

If he were to try and fire Putin this year, no-one would stand for it. Medvedev simply couldn’t rule today without Putin’s active support.

But there’s something about being President of a powerful country that increases a man’s stature in the eyes of his people - and increases a man’s stature in his own eyes. Surely, one day, Medvedev will get tired of being told what to do by his supposed subordinate?

Will we see another battle for the White House?

Russians are at the polls today, voting for the man who will become their third President, after Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin.

Please note that many of the links are to Russian language news sources. Where possible, I’ve linked to a translation, as well as the Russian language article. Additonally, some of the pages seem to be being updated on the fly, so the content may change after I link to it…

Time: Monday morning - Moscow 10:15am, London 7:15am, New York 2:15am

The results haven’t quite been announced, but with 99% of the vote counted, Medvedev has snuck past the 70% mark (translation here). The candidates now stand as follows:

70.23% - Dmitry Medvedev, United Russia
17.76% - Gennady Zyuganov, Communist Party of the Russian Federation
9.37% - Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Liberal Democratic Party
1.29% - Andrei Bogdanov, Democratic Party of Russia

70% is an important psychological figure, which will on the face of things give much more credibility to backers of Medvedev. On the other hand, the late increase in Medvedev’s vote share, from 64% late yesterday to just over 70% at the close of play, might arouse suspicions among the more conspiracy minded observers of Russian politics…

By the way - Medvedev gained slightly more votes in total than Putin four years ago (translation here), but a slightly lower overall percentage - Putin managed 71.31%.

Before I go, just a few more quick notes.

Vladimir Zhirinovksy has announced that the LDPR will support Vladimir Putin if he is nominated as Prime Minister in May (translation here).

Paul-Marie Couto, a Member of the European Parliament was in Russia to observe the elections. He believes the elections were free and fair (translation here), and will no doubt become a poster child for the Russian Government. In an interview, he told reporters:

“When I get back to France, will convince our fellow citizens that they did not believe that read in the newspapers”.

Not all would agree with him. Other Russia have detailed a long list of voilations on their website and Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov has apparently got a list of 200 violations, which I assume he will release at some point in the near future - either to the press, or to a court.

Finally, the Garry Kasparov led Other Russia will be holding protest marches in Moscow and St Petersburg today. I doubt it will be a good tempered affair, so expect arrests. Indeed, Echo Moscow are reporting that arrests may have already begun (translation here) - Maxim Reznik, the St Petersburg boss of liberal party Yabloko is apparently in police custody.

Time: Moscow 9:45pm, London 6:45pm, New York 1:45pm

All the polling stations are closed now, and the voting is done. All that remains is to count the votes.

Earlyy figures released by the CEC are pretty much following the polls at the moment. As of now, they’re reporting an easy win for Medvedev (translation here) - as we stand the candidates rank as follows:

64.55% - Dmitry Medvedev
18.85% - Gennady Zyuganov
12.71% - Vladimir Zhirinovsky
1.49% - Andrei Bogdanov

No official turnout yet, but I saw an earlier report (sorry, lost the link) which put it at just under 64%, which I’d imagine will be a (very very) slight disappointment to the Kremlin.

In Chechnya, Medvedev gained a disappointing 90% of the vote (translation here). Disappointing because Putin gained 99% there just four years ago…

Both Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky are unhappy. Zyuganov is reporting yet more electoral violations (translation here) - from stuffed ballots to journalists being beaten. Zhirinovsky, meanwhile, has promised to contest the election in court (translation here).

Time: Moscow 6pm, London 3pm, New York 10am

Four people have been arrested at a flashmob demonstration in Moscow (translation here). Garry Kasparov, leader of the Other Russia movement, was reportedly at the event, but no news yet as to whether he was one of those arrested.

Update: looks like Kasparov is on the loose for the time being - well, more or less. According to radio station Echo Moscow, he wasn’t one of those arrested at the flashmob. Kasparov was, however, prevented from entering Red Square (translation here).

Time: Moscow 5pm, London 2pm, New York 9am

Still a bit quiet as we await the first results.

In the meantime, you might be interested to know that 93% of Russian soldiers voted (translation here) in the Far Eastern Military District. Presumably because they were told to.

Additionally, more allegations of violations are coming from the Communist Party (translation here). They are reporting seeing ballot box stuffing, and a polling station where a poster was prominently displayed with a big tick next to one of the candidate’s names.

Time: Moscow 2pm, London 11am, New York 6am.

Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev are at a nice restaurant having lunch (translated article here), along with Federation Council head Sergei Mironov, Chairman of the State Duma Boris Gryzlov, and current Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov. On the menu, says Interfax, are omul, a fish native to Lake Baikal in Siberia. Mmmmm, tasty.

Surely it’s supposed to be bad luck to celebrate victory before the vote is even done?

Meanwhile, polling stations are beginning to close in the far East of Russia, so the first preliminary results can’t be too far away…

Time: Moscow 2pm, London 11am, New York 6am.

The big names in Russian politics are all turning out to vote. Putin and his wife voted just an hour or so ago (translation here). Putin, like Medvedev before him was in a particularly chipper mood:

“I’m in a celebratory mood. Luidmilla, when she left the house, said that rain means good will”.

Communist candidate Gennady Zyuganov has also voted. Unlike Putin and Medvedev, though, he’s not in a good mood, and seems to be the first person of note to be reporting electoral violations (translation here).

“We sent almost 500,000 observers to oversee polls. Unfortunately, there have been many violations.”

Nationalist LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky was also out bright and early. Perhaps recognising his limitations, he was pretty upbeat, too, restricting himself to a quick cheer of “For victory!”

No news yet of token liberal candidate Andrei Bogdanov.

Time: Moscow, 1pm, London, 10am, New York, 5am

As I wake up in London, voters are going to the polls throughout Russia. Because of the country’s vast size, some regions, like Vladivostok are about to close their polling stations, while voters in the west of the country have many hours still to vote.

So, at the moment, no actual results to report.

The Central Elections Commission are already reporting high turnout, however. An hour or so ago, turnout was running at 15%, which is 3-4% higher than the equivalent time four years ago (translation here). As the turnout last time was just over 64%, the Kremlin will clearly be hoping for a turnout of around 70% to give increased international legitimacy to the election.

Dmitry Medvedev is, of course, among those who voted. He came out of the polling booth with a spring in his step, telling reporters that a new era was dawning:

“Spring has arrived - although it is raining, a new season has come.”

Does anyone believe him?

Election observers are already reporting on the legitimacy of the election. Unfortunately, since the OSCE decided not to send observers (citing intolerable conditions being imposed on them), the only observers seem to be from the Commonwealth of Independent States. They have observers in around half of Russia’s regions and, unsurprisingly, they’re giving the election a clean bill of health (translation here).

Finally, for this update, a bit of light relief - apparently, as is tradition, members of the Central Election Commission will not wear ties to work today (translation here). They’ll don their ties again at 9pm, Moscow Time, when they start announcing the results.