Georgia today released this amazingly detailed video footage of a Russian MiG fighter shooting down one of its unarmed drones:

Georgian authorities claim that the drone was shot down during an operation over the breakaway region of Abkhazia which is supported, of course, by Russia. Colonel David Nairashvili, commander of Georgia’s air force told reporters:

“On April 20 a Russian MiG-29 fighter jet shot down an unarmed, unmanned air vehicle which was performing basic reconnaissance over Georgian territory.

It’s absolutely illegal for a Russian MiG-29 to be there.”

Naturally, Russia has protested its innocence. A typically robust spokesman for the Russian air force said today:

“Nonsense. What would a Russian jet fighter be doing over Georgian territory?”

Interestingly, no markings are visible on the aircraft - I’m not sure if this is because the MiG was actually unmarked, or if the video’s resolution isn’t good enough to pick out the markings. But Georgian authorities are sure the plane is Russian. The Georgian airforce chief went on to add that:

“The MiG-29 has a distinctive twin-tail marking. It’s a Russian aircraft. Georgia does not possess it, nor do Abkhaz separatists.”

And, moreover, he claims, Georgian radar records show that the plane took off from a base in Abkhazia before shooting down the drone and fleeing across the border into Russia.

Clearly someone shot down the plane. But I wonder - could it have been a training exercise by the Georgian air force - presumably they have a few MiGs still knocking around. Or, does the Abkhazian military have a couple of MiGs under its control, on loan from Russia?

What do you think?

Popularity: 15% [?]

The high point of President Putin’s visit to Libya this week was the announcement that Russia was to write off Libya’s $4.6 billion debt. In exchange, a number of massive bilateral trade deals have been agreed.

A cheerful, but slightly over-heated President Putin told reports

“I am satisfied by the way we have solved the debt problem. The deal will not only employ Russian defence enterprises but will also help strengthen Libya’s defences.”

I must say, I find it fascinating that both Putin and the world’s press have been majoring on the military aspects of this deal.

True, the Russian defence industry will benefit to the tune of a couple of billion dollars worth of new business as Libya modernises its military after decades of sanctions. But in pure money terms, the $3 billion deal to build a new coastal railway line and Gazprom’s proposed gas exploration deal are likely to be far more valuable.

For the press, the attraction of explaining the deal in terms of debt for arms is obvious. But for Putin, it’s yet another opportunity to emphasise Russia’s remerging military muscle. After all, selling arms to an African country is a much better way to promote your military prowess than invading a neighbouring country. And much less risky…

But, I digress. Next stop for Putin is a trip to Sardinia, where he’ll be meeting new Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi. No debt to forgive there, and no chance of arms sales. But Italian energy giant Eni has significant business interests in Libya, and would make a useful partner.

Popularity: 14% [?]

British RAF planes intercept Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers once a week, reports populist British newspaper The Sun.

The enterprising paper filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the British Ministry of Defence which revealed that, during the seven months to January 2008, RAF interceptors were sent up to meet Russian bombers 28 times. For comparison, during the previous 6 months, RAF interceptors were scrambled just twice.

The Sun is, of course, righteously indignant at the cost to the good old British taxpayer. According to them, it costs approximately £30,000 ($60,000) per hour to keep an RAF fighter in the air. They’ve calculated that, over the past seven months, the RAF has spent more than £3.5 million ($7 million) to meet the Russian threat.

Buried mid-way through the article is the news that none of the Russian bombers have entered British airspace and, in truth, almost all of the contacts have been over the Artic or the North Sea. You would never know this from the article’s title though - “Hey you, get off of our cloud”.

Or from the over-worked ’senior RAF source who reports exactly what Russian command want to hear:

“We have to take these bombers seriously, just in case. It runs us ragged.”

I’m sure the RAF are quite right to intercept Russian bombers flying near British airspace - they are after all, flying very close - but it’s indicative of the poor press Russia is getting at the moment that hysterical over-reaction is now becoming the norm.

If you want to see the impact reporting like this is having on many in the British public, take a look at the comments to The Sun article.

Oh, and two more quick thoughts before I go. I wonder how much it’s costing the Russian air force to send these bombers out? Probably not as much as the British RAF. And, finally… I wonder if the Russian Air Force would tell me how much it costs if I were to ask???

Popularity: 22% [?]

This Monday US Secretary of State for Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice visited Moscow. They held negotiations with the current President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President-elect Dmitry Medvedev.

But the main negotiations are planned to be held on Tuesday, when the American guests will meet their colleagues – Anatoly Serdyukov (Minister of Defence) and Sergey Lavrov (Minister of Exterior). Their dialogue will be held in the same “two plus two” format as before.

On the eve of this meeting in Moscow Washgton made very careful predictions about its outcome. Before these negotiations US Minister of Defence Robert Gates shuffled all responsibility for the meeting’s success onto the Russian side:

“Russia needs to decide if it wants to be a real partner or not. From my point of view, we put a lot of things on the negotiating table. And now it’s high time for Russia to answer.”

Gates made it clear that no more new offers about anti-missile defence would be suggested to Moscow. Russian Vice-minister of Defence Alexander Grushko confirmed this, saying that:

“The negotiation process has not been finished yet. With any result, Russia will find reliable ways of providing its security. But our choice is to prefer cooperation and not confrontation”.

US anti-missile system placement: is there any hope for Russia?

Experts say that Tuesday’s negotiations will be devoted to the most pressing problem of Russia-US relations- the placement of US anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe countries – specifically, the Czech Republic and Poland.

Negotiations, which have been taking place between Russia and the US since February are close to their finish. And that is why we can conclude that placement of anti-missile elements in Eastern Europe is no longer a question of discussion. The only hope for Russia in the diplomatic meetings is to agree some acceptable conditions for all sides.

The last “two plus two” meeting took place last year in October. Then, according to, experts, some progress was made – in particular, some representatives of the US administration mentioned the possibility of Russian military inspections of anti-missile systems in Poland and Czech Republic.
Also it was suggested some tactical decisions, for example, not to direct radar in Czech Republic at Russia and not to place missiles in Polish mines. Moscow approved these initiatives, but in the protocol of negotiations these agreements were not fully resolved.

Anonymous sources in the Russian Ministry of Defence expressed regret that the Americans haven’t brought any new suggestions about the problem. According to the opinion of militaty officials, this means that future negotiations will be no more than a formal meeting. But for Russia now it is very important to decide how the Russian military will inspect anti-missile objects in Eastern Europe.

Also in October of last year it was discovered, that USA has been holding secret negotiations with Turkey about placement their anti-missile system. This information was given by press-secretary of Pentagon Jeff Morrell. When talking about Robet Gates’s visit to Ankara, he noted that.

“The main topic of discussion was military operation of Turkish army in Iraq. Moreover, he has duscussed plans of the development of anti-missile system with the President Gule and the Prime-minister Erdogan”

More recently, it was revealed that the US is discussing its participation in an Indian missile defense system.[Add text about India too, so I can link to old article.

All these facts leave less oportunities for Russia to significantly influence the anti-missile system placement, and don’t leave any room for optimism about Tuesday’s negotiations.

Popularity: 30% [?]

Aleksei Ostrovsky, head of the Duma’s Committee for CIS Affairs has recommended that the Russian Government create diplomatic missions at the territories of three unrecognized republics – Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Trans-Dneister (Pridnestrovie).

According to Interfax, the document, which has been prepared for discussion and further confirmation in the Duma, recommends that Russia work to “achieve representatives’ participation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie in all international organizations and forums, where their interests are discussed and touched.”

Also it was recommended that Russia should “resist firmly any attempts of external pressure – political, economical or military - concerning these three republics” and that the Russian Parliament suggest to the Russian Federation government that it“maintain existing forms of peacekeeping operations to settle conflicts around Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie based on mutual conventions”.

According to the report:

“Nowadays the situation in the zone of Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-Ossetia conflicts becomes more and more complicated. Politics realized by Tbilisi is extravagant, unpredictable and sometimes destructive. Georgia is trying to break existing algorithims of conflict settlement and compromise the Russian peacekeepers’ mission. This gives a reason to Abkhazians and Ossetians to believe that Georgian administration chooses military option”.

The report’s authors note that mandate of peacekeeping forces, which are operating in the territory of the conflicts between Georgia and Abkhazia, Georgia and Ossetia, only allows them to “split the rivals, maintain regime of security and stop the fire”. To change this mandate would require the agreement of all sides. But neither Abkhazia, nor South Osetia have given their agreement, because they are afraid the departure of Russian peacekeepers would lead to destabilization of the situation in the region.

The authors of the project believe that the precedent set in Kosovo, wich recently declared its independence will have consequences for other “frozen conflicts.” If these conflicts remain “frozen,” this will be provoke new stage of confrontation between conflict sides. And this confrontation will be negative for the population.

Nugzar Ashuba, the head of Parliament of Abkhazia, speaking in the Duma, asked Russia to recognize independence of this self-proclaimed republic as soon as possible. He told Duma members that:

“The Russian Federation now (after the Kosovo incident) has enough reasons to declare the independence of Abkhazia all over the world. By doing this Russia will establish its international weight.”

Ashuba also mentioned that the Georgian government must be interested in recognition new status of republic, because Abkhazia has proved that it was able to survive as an independent entity.

“We think that if Georgia recognizes independence of Abkhazia, its government will solve many other socio-economical problems and the Georgian people will be free from waiting for war every moment.”

The rest of the Duma’s discussion was closed to journalists, but according to one source, some Duma deputies consider that Russia has to support these self-proclaimed republics, because they will never be part of Georgia again.

It is the time to remember words of President Putin during the visit of Angela Merkel last week. He reminded us that case of Kosovo would have a lot of consequences for the world.

Now we have the beginning. Who is next?

Popularity: 87% [?]

Last Saturday Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel visited Moscow. Her visit corresponded with International Woman Day which is celebrated on the 8th of March. More importantly, though, Merkel was the first foreign leader to meet not only the current President, but also with President-elect Dmitry Medvedev. Thus, her visit was divided into two parts – formal part and informal one.

Putin met Merkel in his residence in Novo-Ogarevo and reviewed the results of collaboration between Russia and Germany:

“I hope it is not the last meeting with Frau Chancellor, but it is our last meeting while I am President. Our cooperation has been very good. For last 6 years goods turnover has increased 3.5 times and reached 50 billion dollars”.

Frau Chancellor agreed with him and said that it was necessary to look in future for more intensive cooperation between Russia and Germany. Moreover Putin and Merkel also held two-way negotiations and discussed questions of economic cooperation and current world problems.

Russia & Germany: what awaits us?

Some of the results of these negotiations reported during a press-conference, which was organized for German and Russian journalists.

Russia’s President stated that Russia would provide energy for Europe, and to ensure a more reliable supply, Russia will begin construction of gas-pipe with collaboration of Germany. This pipe will run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea and will provide a permanent supply of gas for European consumers. Also Putin promised to continue cooperation with Berlin to settle the situation about Iran, Afganistan and Middle East.

Merkel agreed with Putin, but added that, when it comes to diplomatic problems, each country has its own point of vew. The difference between both leaders’ points of view became clear when the press began to ask questions. For example, Putin called NATO’s expansion as not efficient and even harmful. He said: “I have the impression that the NATO block wants to replace the UN. It forces Ukraine to enter, but people there don’t want it”. On the contrary, Merkel considered that NATO is open to everybody, and had only function was defence against terrorism and other global chanllenges.

The Russian President also called the proclamation of Kosovo’s independence a precedent which would have consequences not only in Europe, but in many regions of the world. Merkel replied that Kosovo was a unique case.

At end of the press-conference Merkel said that she would be glad to work with the new Russian President - Dmitry Medevev - and she hoped that cooperation between Russia and Germany would be as intensive as it was with Putin.

Putin resumed the press-conference with the provocative statement:

“I see that some people are waiting for me to leave the post. They think that with another person as the President, things will be much easier. Medvedev doesn’t have the label of KGB person, but he is the same Russian nationalist (in good sense) as me. He is real patriot of his country and will be active in defending Russians’ interest in world politics”

In my opinion Putin with his statement gave another opportunity for world society to discuss who is the boss in the duet – Putin or Medvedev? But one thing now is clear: other political leaders can’t be relaxed with Russia’s new president. Russia will continue to defend its interests in the international arena.

Popularity: 52% [?]

Note: This is the first of a number of articles for Siberian Light by Tanya. You can identify who is the author of any particular post by checking the tag line just under the post title.

In late February it was discovered that India and USA have begun consultation at the high level about question of cooperation in the area of ballistic missile defence. According to a statement by Robert Gates, US Secretary of State for Defense, the question was about US participation in the development of an Indian ballistic missile defence system.

“We’re beginning to talk about conducting a joint analysis on what India’s needs would be in the realm of missile defence, and where co-operation might help advance that.”

This is a very important project for Deli, because India is facing threats from neigbouring states’ threats, especially from Pakistan, which has nuclear weapon. This expansion of military cooperation between India and USA implies certain consequences for geopolitics.

India’s entering to American influence is one more stage in the development of the so called Big Asia Belt, which includes all the countries from Turkey to Iraq, Afganistan and Pakistan to Indo-China. Russia left this region in 2003 giving up its base in Vietnam. As a result there are only two countries which are free of American military influence in this region – Iran and China.

Cooperation in the area of ballistic missile defence development gives the US an opportunity to include India in the global American anti-missile system. However, taking into account military activity in Caucasus, cooperation between Deli and Washington may lead to Russian concerns that any Southern missile defence system would also be directed at Russia. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact, that Robert Gates visit to India synchronized with preparations for the placement of the American anti-missile system in Czech Republic and Poland. And, at the same time NATO has been holding a summit where a key item on the agenda was whether to include Ukraine and Georgia as NATO members and whether to begin cooperation with these countries in the anti-missile sphere.

Does Russia still sell what countries want to buy?

Russia has been selling military equipment to India for many years. Also it has been negotiating for the last 5 years about the creation of an Indian missile defence system based on the Russia C-400 system.

However, Russia has not proved a reliable supplier, and a few big contracts have been broken. India accuses Russian producers, because they often don’t deliver on time, or ask for more resources. Moreover, India complains that Russian equipment is often of very low quality.

One of the biggest scandals happened 4 years ago. India discovered a lot of defects in the anti-air system “Shtil-1”, which has been installed on 3 destroyers. These system even couldn’t hit the target! As a result, a “Rosoboronexport” – Russia’s ams export agency – were fined $40 million.

Currently there is a conflict between India and “Rosoboronexport” which touches on reconstruction of the aircraft “Admiral Gorshkov”. Accordng to the contract which was signed 4 years ago, reconstruction of the aircraft must be done by 2011. But Russia recently said that expenses for modernization described in the contract were twice under-estimated. That is why Russia has asked to prolong the time of works and asked for more finances. The same thing has happened with other projects. One month ago India rejected to accept submarine “Sinduvijay” which has been reconstructed in Severodvinsk.

A lot of claims have been made against other projects: planes have defects which make them impossible to use, components are supplied with a huge delay and their quality is very low. All this makes India less likely to buy Russian military equipment. Currently India buys weapons in USA and following the recent visit of Robert Gates to India, it was decided to begin cooperation in the sphere of nuclear technologies.

Similar problems complicate relations between Russia and China. China already has given up to buying Russian military equipment. Algeria also refused to accept planes and tanks because their quality doesn’t correspond international norms.

Russian euphoria, which appeared in 2003-2005 with growth of orders for military equipment, resulted in over-estimation of forces and capacities by Russian organizations which were producers of military equipment. They signed more contracts for weapon supply than they could realize.

All this has almost destroyed the image of Russia in the sphere of militaty technologies. And in fact Moscow soon will find out itself sidelined in the market of military equipment, particularly in the Asiatic market.

In my opinion Russia will lose its place in the market, if does not take certain measures to improve of its image among countries currently looking to buy military equipment. In particular, it must ensure that it makes a realistic estimation of its capacities – financial and timings – and ensure that the equipment it supplies is of sufficient quality.

Popularity: 37% [?]

I don’t normally post quick video posts like this any more, but I think I’ll make an exception for Hillary Clinton’s mangling of Dmitry Medvedev’s name in yesterday’s Democratic debate.

To give Clinton some credit, though, she does at least know who calls the shots in Russia:

“I have no doubt that as the president of the United States, even though technically the meetings would be with the person labelled as president, the decisions will be made by Putin.”

Obama holds pretty much the same view, but was at least able to show off with a little background information about Putin.

“He is someone who was handpicked by Putin. And Putin has made it very clear he will continue to have the strongest hand in Russia when it comes to the government.”

Still, it’s nice to see that some consideration is being to Russia in the US Presidential election.

Update: Russia Today have a fuller report on the debate here.

Popularity: 41% [?]

The Russian Air Force is very keen to tell the world it’s back. This weekend alone, Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers first violated Japanese airspace and then, in their most audacious flight for a fair few years, went on to ‘buzz’ the US Aircraft Carrier USS Nimitz.

Violation of Japanese Airspace
On Saturday, a Russian Tu-95 bomber overflew the Pacific island of Sofugan, 650km (400 miles) south of Tokyo for three minutes. The Japanese air force took the incursion so seriously that they scrambled 22 fighter jets to escort the Russian bomber out of Japanese airspace.

The furious Japanese government have demanded an explanation from Moscow, but a Russian Air Force spokesman was adamant that they have done nothing wrong:

All flights of the Russian Air Force were carried out in accordance with international air space regulations without breaching the other states’ borders.

Many in Japan are suspicious that the overflight was linked to an annual rally to demand the return of the Kurile Islands to Japan - they were seized by Soviet troops at the end of the Second World War and never returned. Despite recent concilliatory moves, both Japan and Russia still dispute the status of the islands, and have as a result, never signed a formal treaty ending their Second World War conflict.

Buzzing the USS Nimitz Aircraft Carrier

The story which has really hit the headlines, though, was the Tu-95 that buzzed the USS Nimitz - flying directly over the nuclear powered aircraft carrier at a height of just 600 metres not just once, but twice.

Four US F/A 18 fighter jets were scrambled and escorted the Russian Bear until it was comfortably out of range, but US officials are playing down the incident.

Naval Admiral Gary Roughead told reporters:

“It was a very benign flight that came through, and we just latched on to them and followed them in. I know I’m not playing this up very much, but that’s the way I see it. They came out to look. We joined up (and) flew with them until they went home.”

The Russian bomber was one of a squadron of four that approached the US carrier, but the only one to actually fly directly overhead. Because it was in international waters, though, the US could not legally prevent the Russian plane from flying overhead.

A new, more assertive Russia?

Reports of provocative Russian military activity are becoming increasingly frequent, right across the globe. Russia’s military is better funded than it has been for more than a decade, and the Kremlin feels that it is time to demonstrate that Russia is not quite the military basket case it once was.

But, all the same, there isn’t much to worry about here. Flights like these make good copy for the papers, but otherwise they don’t really surprise anyone in the world’s militaries.

The last Russian overflight of a US carrier was only four years ago, and the last Russian incursion into Japanese airspace was just two years ago. Incidents like these really are relatively common.

And I’m certain that, if the Russian’s sole remaining aircraft carrier ventured out of port more often, US planes would make their own overflights from time to time…

I think Russian paper Kommersant have probably got it about right when they point out that the Japanese and American militaries should actually be thanking the Russians:

A total of 22 fighters of various type, two early-warning planes and E-3A guidance AWACS were involved, so the Japanese could thank their Russian colleagues for the drill.

They should also be thanking the Russians for giving them yet another up close view of the Russian bomber’s flight capabilities - I’m sure both the Japanese and Americans will have collected bucketloads of valuable data, which someone, somewhere will be merrily analysing.

Popularity: 55% [?]

Georgian tycoon and opposition politician Badri Patarkatsishvili died in London last night - rumours are swirling that he has been murdered, another Litvinenko.

Patarkatsishvili’s aides are reporting that he died of a heart attack, but Patarkatsishvili was an opponent of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Georgian President Mihail Saakashvilli - and he is a close friend of exiled Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky. Patarkatsishvili was recently charged with plotting a coup in Georgia, and was reportedly in fear of his life so, as you can imagine, the British press (notably the Daily Mail) are having a field day with this story.

The police, as is common with any unexplained death, are currently treating the death as “suspicious”, which is feeding the fire at the moment. An autopsy is due later today, so hopefully we’ll have a clearer picture shortly.

Enemies

Patarkatsishvili certainly had a lot of enemies, so I’m really not at all surprised that the police are treating his death as suspicious. He had massive business interests in Russia, and has at times been a vocal critic of Putin. But, much as the conspiracy theorists might like to link this death with Putin, Patarkatsishvili was on even worse terms with the current Georgian leader, and if one is going to investigate an assassination attempt, that would be the best place to start.

Patarkatsishvili was a fervent supporter of Saakashvilli during Georgia’s Rose Revolution of 2004, but had a severe falling out over recent years, and Patarkatsishvili recently did his utmost to bring down Saakashvilli’s Presidency. Taking advantage of strife within Georgia he self-financed his campaign in last month’s Georgian Presidential election. His money wasn’t enough to secure victory though, and he lost the election heavily.

Saakashvilli celebrated his victory with revenge - almost immediately after the election, Patarkatsishvili was charged with plotting a coup against the Georgian government. Patarkatsishvili was, until his death last night, a wanted man.

Tape

Patarkatsishvili had already expressed fears that he might be assassinated and, so far, press speculation is centering on an alleged conversation between a Georgian Interior Ministry official and Uvais Akhmadov, described as a Chechen warlord from last December, in which a plot to assassinate him was allegedly discussed:

“It’s now a political issue . . . We’ll be able to deal with him – that’s not a problem. Even if he has 100 people guarding him, well that’s not a problem. Our issue is such that we’ll destroy these guards.

A plan could be constructed in such a way to do it professionally, leave as few traces as possible . . .

“Whoever was to do this . . . we want to be able to explain to the people in Georgia that it was Russia.

(You can listen to the full tape - in Russian - on the Sunday Times website).

Of course, Patarkatsishvili could also have died of natural causes and, unless some direct evidence emerges, this is how the British Police will eventually look at his death - formally, at least. Certainly he was complaining the other day of feeling slightly unwell during a meeting - his spokesman Lord Bell reported:

“At one point, he complained he was a little overcome by the warmth of the room and left to get some fresh air.”

One to watch. I’ll try to keep this post updated as the story develops.

Popularity: 42% [?]

Russia isn’t the only place holding a Presidential election in 2008, you know. The more eagle eyed amongst you may have spotted that there is a rather trivial contest currently taking place in America.

It’s Super Tuesday today in the US so, in the interests of making sure that all elections are covered fairly, I thought I’d take a look at what each of the remaining US presidential candidates has to say about Russia and about our hero Vladimir Putin, the mighty President they all hope one day to emulate…

Let’s start off with the Republican candidates. And, it must be said, some of them have some very strange views indeed.

First up is Mitt Romney, who really knows how to spew out the verbal vomit. Take, for example, his response to the news that Time Magazine had nominated Putin as their Person of the Year:

“Oh, you are kidding. That’s disgusting. I’m absolutely - I mean, are you - I mean, I haven’t seen Time. Are you serious?”

But at least he recovered his composure enough to tell us just why he was disgusted:

“Well, you know, he imprisoned his political opponents. There have been a number of highly suspicious murders. He has squelched public dissent and free press. And to suggest that someone like that is the man of the year is really disgusting. I’m just appalled.”

At least he’s concerned. Ron Paul, the doggedly determined outsider candidate, seemed to be more concerned with demonstrating his independence from mainstream thought than actual politics when he became the sole member of the House to vote against a 2007 resolution that noted…

“…the disturbing pattern of killings of numerous independent journalists in Russia since 2000, and urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to authorize cooperation with outside investigators in solving those murders.”

Ron Paul excepted, the Republican party line seems to be ‘we don’t love Putin’. Mick Huckabee is no exception. When asked about Putin’s infamous topless fishing picture, Huckabee confessed his true love for another:

“While I am impressed with the fact he can get out and go fishing, the shirtless photo doesn’t do anything for me. Now, if it was a picture of Scarlett Johansson, that would be another story.”

Indeed.

The Republican prize, though, has to go to old-timer John McCain, who drew on all his years of experience to look deep into Putin’s eyes and see more than just his soul:

“I know Mr. Putin. I’ve looked into his eyes, and I saw three letters — KGB.”

McCain’s not just about the soundbytes, though - he’s able to resist the urge to get all hysterical and give us considered analysis as well:

Putin is going to cause us a lot of difficulties…I don’t think it’s going to be a return to the cold war, they don’t have the population…anything that would bring around the kind of military might that they once had, even with the petrodollars….but they are trying to reassert the Russian empire…and they are going to be a thorn in our side.

As I write this, there are only two Democratic candidates still standing - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Hillary, as you might expect, trots out a tired soundbite:

“This is the president that looked into the soul of Putin, I could have told him, he was a KGB agent, by definition he doesn’t have a soul, I mean this is a waste of time, right, this is nonsense.”

Now where have we heard that before?

Clinton seems to have pretty much given up on the idea of promoting democracy in Russia, too:

“I’m interested in what Russia does outside its borders first. I don’t think I can, as the president of the United States, wave my hand and tell the Russian people they should have a different government.”

At least Barack Obama finds time to talk policy about Russia, even if he is dull, and manages to slightly contradict himself:

We will not pursue unilateral disarmament. As long as nuclear weapons exist, we’ll retain a strong nuclear deterrent. But we’ll keep our commitment under the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty on the long road towards eliminating nuclear weapons. We’ll work with Russia to take U.S. and Russian ballistic missiles off hair-trigger alert, and to dramatically reduce the stockpiles of our nuclear weapons and material. We’ll start by seeking a global ban on the production of fissile material for weapons. And we’ll set a goal to expand the U.S.-Russian ban on intermediate-range missiles so that the agreement is global.

So, there you have it. You can now make a considered decision as to which candidate best represents your views on Russia.

But, before you go, just a quick reminder of why these six candidates have survived this far - they’re not as stupid as Bill Richardson:

“If I am elected President I will… seek immediate negotiations with the Soviet Union.”

And now, to vote…

Popularity: 52% [?]

I stumbled across this fascinating map of Europe’s languages the other day - each colour represents a different language.

Russia is by far the most linguistically diverse country in Europe. As well as Russian, I counted eight different languages within the European borders of Russia - plus there are who knows how many more distinct languages spoken in Siberia and the Far East.

Few other countries seem to have more than one or two native languages - Romania heads up the rest of the pack with, by my count, six native languages.

And also Russia seems to be one of the most widespread first languages outside of its home country. From what I can tell, it has spread to seven different European countries - Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Finland.

You can see a larger version of this map at Wikipedia Commons.

Popularity: 64% [?]

It’s been a busy week for watchers of Russia’s military. Not only has Russia announced the return of military parades to Red Square for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, they also launched the largest naval exercise since the end of the Cold War - and off the French coast, no less.

First a run down of the week’s storys, followed by some thoughts on whether Russia is back with a bang, or just sabre-rattling.

Tanks return to Red Square

After the Soviet Union collapsed, the famous military parades through Red Square stopped. There was no fanfare. I guess someone just thought the parades no longer seemed appropriate.

Not any more.

The Russian Defence Ministry have announced that this year’s May Day parade in front of the Kremlin will feature 6,000 marching soldiers, tanks, Topol ICBM missiles and a flypast by 32 Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter planes.

Interestingly, this year’s May Day parade will also be the last parade that Putin watches as Russia’s President.

Major Military Exercise off French coast

Also this week comes news of Russia’s largest naval exercise since the end of the Cold War.

A carrier strike group of 11 ships, led by the carrier Admiral Kuznetzov and backed by 47 planes has been firing missiles into the Bay of Biscay.

And, in a development that has not been well received in the (admittedly paranoid) British Press, a pair of Tu-95 strategic bombers flew from Russia, skirting British airspace, to join the strike group and test fire a couple of extra missiles. The planes were shadowed all the way by Norwegian and British interceptors.

Is Russia flexing its military muscle, or just sabre rattling?

Although Russia’s military is undoubtedly stronger than it was, and Russia’s relative power has increased, I still think this is mainly a case of sabre rattling.

Military parades across Red Square are more likely to show the Russian military as a cold war relic than a modern, well trained and well armed professional military. The symbolism is all ‘New Cold War’, and the show is primarily for public consumption in a country that would like to see some evidence of Russia’s much vaunted improved international strength.

The exercise in the Bay of Biscay, on the other hand is at least a concrete demonstration of Russia’s power and reach. There aren’t many countries in the world that could hold a major naval operation just off the French coast. Seen any Chinese naval task forces in the area recently?

But, for all that, NATO will be distinctly unimpressed by the show. The Russians have committed the bulk of their fleet to what is really just a piece of theatre.

Of 300-odd ships in the Russian Navy, only 30 are estimated to be sea-worthy. In effect, Russia was required to commit more than a third of its active navy to this demonstration.

And its far from clear that all the ships are fully seaworthy. As Pavel Felgenhauer, a respected Russian defence analyst notes:

“The Admiral Kuznetsov is due to go in for repairs when it returns home. There are two tugs with it now because everybody understands that it could go bust at any moment.”

There is no way the Russians would commit the Kuznetzov to an actual mission, unless it were a dire emergency. There is no scope for Russia projecting its power in any of the worlds trouble spots for the time being, and certainly no prospect of them supporting the UN in a peace-keeping mission.

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It looks as though the British Council is going to reluctantly cede to Russian demands that it close its offices in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

According to the BBC, the British Council are to release a statement later today:

A formal statement from the director of the British Council is expected on Thursday.

Sources have told the BBC there does not appear to be much appetite for retaliation at the Foreign Office, where there is a recognition that Britain has few options left in the row.

Each and every Russian member of staff at the British Council was either questioned yesterday by the FSB, or received a late-night home visit from an interior ministry official. They were apparently told in no uncertain terms that their jobs were illegal, and that if they continued to work for the British Council, they would be breaking the law.

The British Council, in their statement, are likely to stress that their decision was motivated by a desire to ensure the safety of their staff - and quite rightly so. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Council’s British staff can just go home at the end of this dispute - the Council’s Russian staff have to stay and face any consequences.

One thing that hasn’t been raised is what the immediate future of Russian British Council staff members - I’m sure the Council will do what it can fothem, but in the very near future, they will officially lose their jobs, and their monthly paychecks.

Overall, I agree with the British Council’s decision at this point. Any responsible employer would do the same. The British Council played the hand they were dealt as well as they could, but ultimately it was a weak hand - the Russian government held all the aces.

According to the BBC, the British Council plan to take the ‘moral high ground’ over this issue - to stress that this is Russia’s loss, rather than Britain’s.

This may play on the international stage but, on the Russian domestic stage, I think this will look very much like a victory for Russia, and a triumph for Putin and Medvedev in the run up to March’s Presidential election.

Update: Both the British Council and British Foreign Minister David Miliband have issued statements on the issue. Here are a couple of hefty excerpts:

British Council statement (pdf):

At the start of this week the Russian Government initiated a campaign of intimidation against our staff in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

On Tuesday 15 January, the Russian State Security Services (FSB) summoned over 20 Russian staff to attend individual interviews.

Late that night 10 members of staff were visited at home by the Russian tax police and called to further interviews yesterday.

The interviews had little to do with their work and were clearly aimed at exerting undue pressure on innocent individuals.

Our paramount consideration is the wellbeing of our staff and I feel we cannot continue our work without significant risk to them.

David Miliband statement to Parliament:

The Russian security services summoned over 20 locally-engaged members of British Council staff in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg one by one for interviews. 10 members of staff were interviewed late at night in their homes after calls by the Russian tax police. Questioning ranged from the institutional status of the British Council to personal questions about the health and welfare of family pets.

Mr Speaker, these Russian citizens have chosen to offer their skills and hard work to promote cultural contact between the people of Russia and the UK. As a result, they have been the subject of blatant intimidation from their own government.

Mr Speaker, I think the whole House will agree that such actions are reprehensible, not worthy of a great country, and contrary to the letter and spirit of the legal framework under which the British Council operates - notably international law, including the Vienna Conventions, and the UK/Russia 1994 bilateral agreement on cultural cooperation which Russia has ratified.

Russia has failed to show any legal reasons under Russian or international law why the British Council should not continue to operate. Russia has also failed to substantiate its claims that the British Council is avoiding paying tax. The British Council is in fact registered for tax in Russia and has complied with all requests of the tax authorities in respect of its activities. Therefore, instead of taking legal action against the Council, they have resorted to intimidation of the Council’s staff.

Later on in his statement, Miliband (correctly, but rather smugly, it seemed to me) outlined the moral high ground that Britain plans to occupy:

We regard as entirely separate issues Mr Litvinenko’s murder and the activities of the British Council to build up links between British and Russian schools and universities, to support English language teaching in Russia and Russian studies in the UK, and to promote the best of British drama, writing, music, and art.

Nor do we believe that cultural activities should become a political football; in fact educational and cultural activities are important ways of bringing people together. That is why I have decided not to take similar action against Russia’s cultural activities in the UK, for example by sending back Russian masterpieces scheduled for show at the Royal Academy, or by taking measures against the two Russian diplomats at the Russian Embassy dedicated to cultural work.

We have nothing to fear from these contacts; we welcome and encourage them.

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The British Government has today accused the Russian authorities of the “intimidation and harassment of British officials.”

The accusations come after many of the Council’s Russian staff were questioned yesterday by the FSB.

Every other Russian member of the Council’s staff was reportedly visited at their homes late at night by Interior Ministry officials, although no reports of the conversations that took place have emerged yet.

Stephen Kinnock, a Director of the British Council, and son of Neil Kinnock, a prominent former British politician, was also arrested by Russian police late last night for a breach of traffic regulations. He was briefly held at a St Petersburg police station before being collected by the British Counsul General.

The British Government is, as you would imagine, not happy. The Russian Ambassador was summoned to receive a formal protest, and the Foreign Minister David Miliband told press:

“Any intimidation or harassment of officials is obviously completely unacceptable.

“The only losers from any attack on the British Council are Russian citizens who want to use the British Council - and the reputation of the Russian government.”

The British Council have also issued a comment to the press:

“Our main concern is for the safety and security of our Russian and UK staff. We are deeply concerned by these incidents,” said a statement from the council this morning.

“We can confirm that last night Stephen Kinnock was followed, stopped and subsequently released an hour later by Russian authorities.

“We can also confirm that our Russian national staff, in both St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, were yesterday summoned for interview by the FSB at their headquarters and subsequently visited in their homes late last night by officials of the Russian ministry of interior.”

Quite rightly, the British Council have focused on the welfare of the Russian national staff who work for them. Because they’ll be feeling much more nervous today than the Council’s British employees, who will just be reassigned to another country at the end of this affair.

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