Comments on: Oil wars http://www.siberianlight.net/oil-wars/ The Russia Blog Sun, 14 Mar 2010 19:27:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Andy http://www.siberianlight.net/oil-wars/#comment-12281 Andy Tue, 09 Jan 2007 21:41:05 +0000 http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/01/08/oil-wars/#comment-12281 To be honest, Kim, I don't know what Belarus could have done. They were in an incredibly weak position, and didn't have any support from either Europe or the US. Probably because they are a dictatorship and thus, a pariah state. Given this, I don't think there is any way they could have effectively fought off Russia's 'advances'. However, I am convinced that the action they have taken, has inflamed an already bad situation for them. They've taken action after the event, inconvenienced their Western European neighbours, and have absolutely zero chance of recouping their financial losses from the gas deal. I'm not quite sure how you can justify saying that the gas deal was thrust upon Belarus with "no warning or time to prepare for it". The issue of gas to Belarus has been rumbling on for months and any half-competent analyst could see that Russia was slowly but surely moving towards demanding that all it's post-Soviet neighbours pay market rates for their oil and gas. The only benefit that friendship towards Russia bought was a delay in the policy's implementation. For example, take a look at this RFE/RL article from April 2006: <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/04/04805ae4-dc2a-401c-83e2-d85524b4d90d.html?napage=2" rel="nofollow">Russia/Belarus - Is a gas war brewing?</a> To be honest, Kim, I don’t know what Belarus could have done. They were in an incredibly weak position, and didn’t have any support from either Europe or the US. Probably because they are a dictatorship and thus, a pariah state. Given this, I don’t think there is any way they could have effectively fought off Russia’s ‘advances’.

However, I am convinced that the action they have taken, has inflamed an already bad situation for them. They’ve taken action after the event, inconvenienced their Western European neighbours, and have absolutely zero chance of recouping their financial losses from the gas deal.

I’m not quite sure how you can justify saying that the gas deal was thrust upon Belarus with “no warning or time to prepare for it”. The issue of gas to Belarus has been rumbling on for months and any half-competent analyst could see that Russia was slowly but surely moving towards demanding that all it’s post-Soviet neighbours pay market rates for their oil and gas. The only benefit that friendship towards Russia bought was a delay in the policy’s implementation.

For example, take a look at this RFE/RL article from April 2006: Russia/Belarus – Is a gas war brewing?

]]> By: La Russophobe http://www.siberianlight.net/oil-wars/#comment-12273 La Russophobe Tue, 09 Jan 2007 21:19:13 +0000 http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/01/08/oil-wars/#comment-12273 If you don't agree with the Belarus approach, how DO you think Belarus should have responded to such a massive increase in its energy costs with no warning or time to prepare for it, something easily seen as a nakedly imperialist action tantamout to military aggression? It's really not right to condemn what they did without telling them what they should have done. If you don’t agree with the Belarus approach, how DO you think Belarus should have responded to such a massive increase in its energy costs with no warning or time to prepare for it, something easily seen as a nakedly imperialist action tantamout to military aggression? It’s really not right to condemn what they did without telling them what they should have done.

]]> By: Global Voices Online » Blog Archive » Russia, Belarus: Oil Wars http://www.siberianlight.net/oil-wars/#comment-12140 Global Voices Online » Blog Archive » Russia, Belarus: Oil Wars Tue, 09 Jan 2007 13:37:51 +0000 http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/01/08/oil-wars/#comment-12140 [...] Siberian Light and Publius Pundit write about the gas-and-oil war between Russia and Belarus. Veronica Khokhlova [...] [...] Siberian Light and Publius Pundit write about the gas-and-oil war between Russia and Belarus. Veronica Khokhlova [...]

]]> By: Tim Newman http://www.siberianlight.net/oil-wars/#comment-12010 Tim Newman Tue, 09 Jan 2007 00:36:55 +0000 http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/01/08/oil-wars/#comment-12010 I couldn't agree more. Russia is playing an exceptionally strong hand very very badly. All this must be music to the ears of the nuclear lobby in the west. Five years ago nuclear was a dirty word; now it's looking like the answer to our energy problems once again. I couldn’t agree more. Russia is playing an exceptionally strong hand very very badly. All this must be music to the ears of the nuclear lobby in the west. Five years ago nuclear was a dirty word; now it’s looking like the answer to our energy problems once again.

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