What if the Romanovs had been restored?

by Andy on November 12, 2008

Martin Gilbert, writing in the Times, imagines an entirely different end to the First World War:

Imagine: in October 1918, Lloyd George’s Cabinet is planning for a prolonged struggle in 1919. Haig’s solution promises to avoid a confrontation even bloodier than the Somme or Passchendaele. The Government agrees. Germany’s main condition is to keep the vast swath of Russia that her troops have occupied since the Bolshevik revolution and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in March.

With peace made with Germany on Haig’s terms by mid-October, the British troops already in Russia have a German ally to help them to crush what Churchill calls “the foul baboonery of Bolshevism”.

Gilbert goes on to observe that Germany would probably still start a second war at some stage - probably with France, because there would be no Polish and Czechosolvak states for Germany to expand into. And, rather hopefully, he suggests that a newly restored Imperial Russia would repay its war debts to Britain, allowing Britain to build a postwar build a postwar cuontry “fit for heroes”.

But nothing about how a restored Romanov dynasty would survive in the new-old Russia.

So, I thought I’d throw a few thoughts - questions really - of my own out there.

Let’s imagine that an Immperial Romanov Dynasty has retained control of the Kremlin with the help of a motley alliance of Russian Whites, and British and German troops. How widely would they be accepted by the Russian public, two years after a pair of revolutions, and at the end of a brief civil war?

On the plus side, they’d presumably have physical control of the apparatus of state, and be backed by foreign money and troops if necessary in the short term. If they could bring some measure of stability, they would presumably be able to count of some gratitude from the public at large.

But, on the down side, they’d be trying to re-establish the divine right of the Romanovs to rule over a people that had experienced (albiet not very succesfully) self rule. The Bolsheviks might have been vanquished, but left-leaning opposition groups would presumably still exist and have at least some measure of support among the people. And how many of the middle classes would have been inspired by the prospect of Kerensky’s failed provisional government?

Also - how would the Americans influence the new-old Russia? If the United States had been able to play a significant role, wouldn’t they have insisted on some pretty significant democratic reforms in Russia? Or would they have been marginalised by an Anglo-German axis?

Being so reliant on British and German support would also post real problems for the Russian government. Britain especially would want Russia to repay its debts, which would be a strain on the public finances - not entirely desirable in a country shattered by years of brutal warfare. If political favours are also asked of Russia, would this reduce the government to a puppet in the eyes of its people?

Lots of questions, I know. Anyone want to take a stab at answering some of them in the comments below?

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Two news stories that caught my eye

by Andy on November 11, 2008

These two news stories from Johnson’s Russia list yesterday caught my eye. 

Medvedev speaks Russian!

Firstly, President Medvedev is finally going to start talking to the Russian press.  Apparently he’s only really been talking to the foreign press so far:

In late November, as Nezavisimaya Gazeta has found out, Russian head of state Dmitriy Medvedev will conduct his first meeting with Russian journalists since his election. Thus far, the president has only given extended interviews to Western press representatives. In March, for example, Medvedev talked with journalists of The Financial Times newspaper.

In August, the president answered questions by journalists of France’s TF-1, the BBC of Great Britain, and the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera, and in September the Russian leader gave an interview to a Euronews correspondent.

{…} For the first time in recent years, voters may ultimately not have an opportunity in 2008 to ask questions to the new head of state.

(The above extract came from Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s 7 November 2008 edition, via Johnson’s Russia List #205)

Not particularly good for building the kind of reputation that normally gets Presidents re-elected.  Or for quashing conspiracy theories that you’re only in the job to (a) get Putin out of a constitutional hole and (b) present a friendlier, more liberal, face to the West.

New Political Party with daftest idea ever.

Boris Nemtsov and Garry Kasparov are to set up a new political party, called Solidarity has been set up.  According to RIA Novosti:

[Solidarity] has defined its main goal as defending the invariability of the Russian constitution”.

(From the same edition of JRL - New opposition democratic movement being set up in Russia - RIA-Novosti)

Talk about anti-democratic. Constitutions are living documents, and must have a mechanism somewhere to allow them to be amended to reflect new political realities.  Yes, constitutions should be hard to change, but they must have some mechanism for change.  Otherwise, we live in the past.

Update: Rather depressingly, it looks like this was a typo.  Really, RIA Novosti meant to say “inviolability”.  I prefered the earlier version - it gave me a much better opportunity to rant.  ”Inviolability” is just boring.  Everyone would agree that the constitution is invoilable - even Putin. 

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Russia Blog Roundup - 10 November

by Andy on November 10, 2008

Before I kick off this week’s (or, rather, last week’s - sorry, running a bit behind!) roundup of the best blog posts about Russia, I just wanted to remind you that I launched a new website this week:

Russian News Online HomepageRussian News Online pulls together all of the top headlines from all of the top Russia news sources onto one simple page - from the Moscow Times to the New York Times. And, as a special bonus, page 2 of the site collates all of the headlines from all of the top Russia blogs.

I hope you find Russian News Online useful. If you do - then please tell others.  If you don’t - then please tell me, as I’d really appreciate the feedback!

Blog Roundup

Now, on with the blog posts:

Well, that’s about it for this week.  Oh, just one thing before I go - did you know there’s a Reindeer Husbandry blog?  Visit for all the lastest Russian reindeer husbandry news!

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I don’t know about you, but I find it a really difficult to keep up with all the news and blogs about Russia.

What I really need is one page that I can visit once every morning, while I’m drinking my coffee, where I can see at a glance what dozens of online newspapers are writing about Russia. Oh, and it’d be nice to have another page exactly the same where I can check out all the Russia blogs.

I couldn’t find a site that did what I wanted (Alltop:Russia is ok, but only has a few sites), so I decided to make my own…  Russian News Online.

Russian News Online Homepage

Russian News Online is a really simple site.

There are only really two pages. The Russian News page displays the latest headlines from each of the top English language news sites covering Russia. The Russian Blogs page displays the latest post from each of the top English language blogs about Russia.

Once you see an article you like, you click on the headline, and you’re taken to the original article.

That’s pretty much it.

(OK, there’s a little bit more.  I’ve added pictures and video news too. If you click on a video, you can play it right there in the site, rather than having to go off to Youtube.)

The site is a bit rough around the edges at the moment - as you can see, design really isn’t my strong suit - and because it pulls news from so many different places, it can be a bit slow to load at times. But I’d really value any feedback about whether there are any news sources / blogs I’m missing, and whether anything doesn’t work properly.

If you find Russian News Online useful, please bookmark it, and tell others about it.

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Medvedev’s speech - world misses point

by Andy on November 5, 2008

Dmitry Medvedev gives his first annual state of the nation speech, and announces that he’d like to extend the Russian Presidential term from 4 to 6 years. So what does the world’s press write about?

That Russia plans to deploy missiles close to the EU’s border to neutralise the US missile shield. Oh, and that Russia blames America for the war in Georgia.

I know plans for constitutional reform aren’t as sexy as phallic lumps of metal, but I’m baffled at how the world’s media can so spectacularly miss the importance of this. Especially on today, the day that US Presidential politics is reinvigorated by Obama’s election. Sureyly it doesn’t take much imagination for a journalist to draw some parallels between a US democracy that’s on the up, and a Russian democracy that’s on the way down.

How Medvedev’s plan to extend the Russian Presidency from a 4 to a 6 year term could be anything but bad news for Russian democracy is a mystery to me. Seriously - what actual benefits would a six year long Presidency bring over a four year long Presidency? None.

The only reason for doing this is to reduce the need for elections.

Oh, and possibly to ensure that Putin has the option to serve 12 more years as President, if he wants to.

Looking on the bright side though, Medvedev did also announce plans to reduce the threshold for entry into Russia’s parliament from the current 7%. I hope this will go some way towards re-energising Russian politics, but the cynic in me wonders if this is just a devious plan to give small parties like Yabloko an incentive to stay small and squabbling, rather than to see sense and merge.

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Half a Million visitors

by Andy on November 4, 2008

Earlier this morning, Siberian Light recorded it 500,000th visitor.

Half a Million Visitors to Siberian Light

I never imagined, when I started Siberian Light on a whim in early 2004, that Siberian Light would turn out to be quite so popular.

It’s been fascinating experience writing at Siberian Light, and watching Russia slowly change (largely for the worse) over the course of five turbulent years.

The best part of blogging about Russia, though, has been the opportunity to get to know so many knowledgeable, interesting and thoughtful people, through the comments and through email. Without your contributions, Siberian Light wouldn’t be half the blog it is today.

Next target - a million by Christmas 2009… :-)

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Julia Pirie - An Unlikely Spy

by Andy on November 3, 2008

As the latest James Bond film is released, the obituary of Julia Pirie provides a timely reminder that the business of espionage is not all glamour:

Julia Pirie, who has died aged 90, spent two decades as an MI5 agent at the heart of the Communist Party of Great Britain, most of it as personal assistant to the party’s general secretary.

A small, dumpy woman with the appearance of a confirmed and rather matronly spinster, Julia Pirie was the most unlikely of spies.

Given her position as personal assistant to the general secretary, John Gollan, it seems highly likely that one of Julia Pirie’s earliest coups was to provide information that allowed MI5 to obtain the entire secret membership of the party. Selected members of the party were told to keep their membership secret so that they could be used by the KGB or Soviet military intelligence (the GRU) in operations in Britain.

The best bit?

Until her death on September 2 Julia Pirie continued to receive her pension from the Communist Party, paid monthly into her account from a bank in Italy.

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Russia Blog Roundup - 1 November

by Andy on November 1, 2008

Welcome to this week’s roundup. Without further ado, here’s my pick of this week’s blog posts about Russia:

Well, that’s it for this week.  Just one last note before I go - keep an eye out on Siberian Light next week, as I’ll be announcing the launch of my new website.

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In an interesting piece of protectionism, Google’s bid to buy Begun, the advertising arm of Russian search engine company Rambler Media, has been blocked by the Russian competition regulator.

Begun - Russian internet advertising companyRussia is the only European country where Google doesn’t have a dominant position in the online advertising market - it’s been struggling to push its way past both Rambler’s Begun and Yandex Direct.  So the deal, which would have been worth around $140 million, would have massively boosted Google’s share of the online advertising industry in Russia.

Some are speculating as to whether this is a manifestation of government protection of Yandex who, of course, will be thrilled at Google’s defeat - they no longer face the immediate prospect of a super-competitor.

I think there is certainly an aspect of government protection of key Russian firms.  But I also think the move will genuinely improve competition - a three way battle for market share can’t help but lead to innovation.  If all goes well, Russia could become a testbed for all kinds of exciting innovations in contextual advertising, which will benefit Russia in the longer term.

Small Russian publishers will also be rejoicing - apparently, Google is much slower at paying its publishers than its Russian counterparts.

Rambler will understandably be annoyed, though - they’ve lost out on a profit of $50 million, which they had planned to invest in future acquisitions themselves.  That in itself will have a bit of a knock on affect on smaller Russian companies, who may now find it more difficult to take their more innovative projects into the mainstream without the support that investment from a large company like Rambler could have provided.

Yandex’s new office in Silicon Valley

This week’s other Russian internet news of note is Yandex’s decision to open their first office in Silicon Valley. Here are some pretty pictures:

Not quite sure what Yandex plan to do in their shiny new US office. Anyone know?

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Komsomol - 90 years young

by Andy on October 28, 2008

Komsomol, the youth wing of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union was founded 90 years ago - on 27 October 1918.

To commemorate Komsomol’s 90th anniversary, Sean’s Russia Blog will spend this week following “the history, reminiscence, and celebrations occurring throughout Russia.”

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Russia Blog Roundup - 24 October

by Andy on October 24, 2008

Since the summer I’ve been putting together roundups of my the most interesting blog posts I’ve read about Russia in the previous month. But, the problem with monthly roundups is that there are hundreds of posts about Russia published every month - probably thousands. The end result? A roundup post that is too long to read properly, in which all the best posts still get hidden.

So, to better highlight the best blog posts about Russia, I’m going to write a weekly roundup post from now on. Here’s the first set of links…

Finally, before I go, I wanted to point out a couple of additions to Siberian Light that you might find useful.

At the bottom of the sidebar is a section called ‘Good Reads’.  If you can’t wait for the weekly roundup of Russia blog posts, take a look there instead - it updates every time I highlight and share an item in my RSS reader.

And, at the bottom of each post, I’ve added a small What’s Next section.  As well as letting you know about other related posts you might be interested in, it has a few social media buttons.  If you enjoy what you read at Siberian Light, and think it’s worth of sharing with others, I’d really appreciate the occasional vote on Digg or Stumble Upon.

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I have it on good authority that the Russian military manual is being re-written to ensure that logistics officers prioritise the procurement of cell phones for the Russian army:

MOSCOW. Oct 20 (Interfax-AVN) - Half of the Russian peacekeeping commanders’ communication in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict were made the use of cell phone services, provided by a Georgian operator, said Vladimir Shamanov, the head of the armed forces’ combat training and service department.

“Nearly half of our commanders’ talks were conducted via mobile phones and all of them were connected to a Georgian cell operator,” Shamanov said in an interview with the Profil magazine, published on Monday.

(Sorry - no link for this, I got it via email - JRL 2008 #192)

The Georgian military manual is also being revised - with instructions on how to shut down their mobile phone network in case of future invasion.

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Why only £50,000?

by Andy on October 22, 2008

You know what baffles me about the news that a top British politician has been accused of soliciting funding from Oleg Deripaska?

If you’re hitting up Russia’s richest man for an illegal donation to your political party, why only ask for £50,000?? The man’s clearly loaded - why not ask for a million or two.

If George Osborne can only get up the nerve to ask for a piddling £50,000, it demonstrates a shocking lack of ambition on behalf of his party…

Anyway, George is quite rightly a bit embarrassed, and everyone in the House of Commons is taking the piss at his expense:

Dennis Skinner, one of the Labour Party’s slightly deranged old school members is great as ever, but Gordon Brown steals the show with his brilliantly timed deadpan reply.

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Oleg Deripaska - Russia\'s Richest ManThe big story of the day in Britain is that senior politicians from both major parties have been caught holidaying with Oleg Deripaska - Russia’s richest man - on his luxury yacht in Corfu.

One of the politicians has been accused of soliciting political funding from Deripaska; the other has been accused of signing off a big (and very favourable) trade deal the Russian oligarch’s aluminium company.

George Osborne WavingGeorge Osborne is the man accused of soliciting political funding from Deripaska. Naturally, it’s illegal for someone from outside of Britain to donate to a British political party. Let alone the Shadow Chancellor (Shadow Finance Minister) and second most powerful man in the Conservative Party. If proven, Osborne would be in a fair bit of trouble.

So, equally naturally, he’s denying it. Well, after a fashion. He’s denying that he asked for money, and he’s denying that he received money. He’s not gone so far as to deny that Deripaska offered the money. Or to deny that he and Deripaska tried to think of a way of transferring the money legally.

Peter Mandelson smilesPeter Mandelson doesn’t seem to have done anything quite so blatant. All the same, journalists have been digging into the story. They’ve considered the fact that Peter Mandelson was until very recently the EU’s Trade Commissioner. And they’ve also considered the fact that, while Trade Minister, Mandelson signed off the deal that exempted Rusal, Deripaska’s aluminium company, from a 14.9% tariff. And they’ve also considered the fact that Mandelson has twice been forced to resign from the British Government and his name is synonymous with sleaze. And they’ve also considered the fact that Mandelson likes to holiday on the Russian oligarch’s yacht in the Mediterranean.

Or, to put it another way, the journalists have put two and two and two and two together, and think they’ve come up with eight.

Adding a bit more spice to the story (were it ever needed) is the involvement of Nataniel Rothschild. A member of one of Europe’s most moneyed families, Rothschild is a business advisor to Deripaska, and a supposedly close friend of Osborne and Mandelson. He read the story in this weekend’s Sunday Times about Mandelson holidaying on Deripaska’s yacht and - for some inexplicable reason - decided to write to the Times to tell that this his mate George was doing equally dodgy stuff and that the journalists should keep their noses out of it because it all happened at a private party.

The letter is too good (and too nuts) to just excerpt, so here’s the unedited letter, in all it’s unabashed eccentric glory:

Nathaniel Rothschild - Party AnimalSince your paper - along with your sister publication The Sunday Times - has made much out of what may or may not have happened at a private gathering of my friends this summer in Corfu, I thought I should make the following observations. I am surprised that you focus on the fact that one of my guests, Peter Mandelson, is a friend of another, Oleg Deripaska. Not once in the acres of coverage did you mention that George Osborne, who also accepted my hospitality, found the opportunity of meeting with Mr Deripaska so good that he invited the Conservatives’ fundraiser Andrew Feldman, who was staying nearby, to accompany him on to Mr Deripaska’s boat to solicit a donation. Since Mr Deripaska is not a British citizen, it was suggested by Mr Feldman, in a subsequent conversation at which Mr Deripaska was not present, that the donation was “channelled” through one of Mr Deripaska’s British companies. Mr Deripaska declined to make any donation. I mention this because it turns out that your obsession with Mr Mandelson is trivial in light of Mr Osborne’s actions. I also think it ill behoves all political parties to try and make capital at the expense of another in such circumstances. Perhaps in future it would be better if all involved accepted the age-old adage that private parties are just that.

I have to say, I’ve been watching both British and Russian politics for many years now, and it’s been years since I heard a nutter story than this.

The only thing that would make it even more perfect would be for everyone to be exonerated, and for the whole thing to be brushed under the carpet. This, undoubtedly, is what will now happen.

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There seems to have been a bit of a glut of films about Russians in London recently.

Partly, I suppose because of the simple fact that Russians are in London in huge numbers, partly because us Brits are a little bit scared of Russia, and partly because Russians are oddly fascinated by Britain (even though they pretend to hate us).

Bigga than Ben, the latest of the Russian London films takes a slightly different approach to its predecessors. Instead of focusing on the glamour of London, or the glamour of Russians in London, it focuses on the, well, the ordinary(ish) Russians just trying to illegally graft a living in London.

Based on Pavel Tetersky and Sergei Sakin’s award-winning diaries of their life in London, Bigga Than Ben was apparently a bit of a hit in Russia - it took $500,000 at the Russian Box Office. Starring Ben Barnes (Prince of Caspian), it’s - unsurprisingly - a dark comedy. It’d have to be really. But the producers for some reason, think it’s a “breezy, barbed satire”.

Bigga than Ben has had a pretty low key release in London. You can only see it at the Apollo West End, Genesis and Tricycle. Still, if you’re in London over the next couple of weeks, might be worth catching.

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