Winds of Change reports that Russia and India are considering whether to build the next-generation MiG together.

From India’s point of view, a firm development agreement that helps finance Russia’s next-generation plane is one way to restrict Russian cooperation with China along similar lines.

Winds of Change goes on to report that India’s current fourth generation fighters are more than a match for most of their regional rivals’ air forces.

Hot on the heels of Russia’s recent military exercise with China (see here for details) 1,600 Russian troops, 9 airplanes and 5 warships are taking part in a military exercise with India.

The exercise, which will run for 10 days from October 10th, is based around a counter terrorism scenario, says Indian newspaper New Kerala, and also aims to improve “interoperability” between Russian and Indian forces in preparation for possible future joint peacekeeping missions.

During the simulated war games in Rajasthan, Russian and Indian paratroopers will land in an area occupied by “illegal armed groups” and neutralise “terrorist training bases” and free “hostages” held at a camp.

The training will include the para-dropping of armoured vehicles, anti-tank guided missiles and artillery.

As Taiwan is out of the occasion, this exercise is rather less provocative than the recent exercise with China, which caused some concern in the West. It won’t pass entirely without causing offence though, I’d imagine - Pakistan will no doubt be watching events closely. In particular, they will probably be worried that if India develops an increased counter-terrorism expertise it could affect Pakistan’s future ability to influence events in Kashmir.

New Kerala goes on to note that this week’s exercise, much like the recent exercise in China, is largely designed to showcase Russian arms:

The Russian paratroopers will be equipped with the latest arms in a bid to showcase the equipment for the Indian Army’s top brass. Russian forces will field specialised anti-terror weapons like sniper guns, anti-material rifles and long distance specialised rockets.

I’d imagine that it is this possibility which worries Pakistan the most. And, following a nuclear standoff between the two countries a few years back, the inclusion of a Russian nuclear submarine in the naval component of the exercise probably won’t do much to ease their concerns…

Russia has written off Ethiopia’s $1.1 billion debt, ostensibly to help Ethiopia in its fight against poverty, although I suspect arms sales may, as is so often the case, be at the root of Russia’s decision:

Russia has cancelled $1.1 billion owed to it by Ethiopia and agreed to let the Horn of Africa country repay a further $160 million over the next 30 years, the state-run Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) said late on Wednesday.

Ethiopian Finance Minister Sufian Ahmed and Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin signed the agreement at a ceremony in Moscow on Monday, ENA said. […]

In October, the Paris Club of creditor nations cancelled $758 million of Ethiopia’s debt as part of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative launched in 1996 to ease the burden on the world’s poorest countries.

Cancelling Ethiopia’s debt not long after the Paris Club announcement provides Russia with a very good public reason for its decision.  And I’m sure that a chunk of the $1.1 billion will be redirected towards fighting poverty in Ethiopia, for which we should be thankful. 

However, after Russia recently announced that it was to write off $9.8 billion of Syria’s debt, the Syrian government promptly announced that it was to buy advanced anti-aircraft missiles from Russia.  I’d wager that altruism wasn’t the only Russian motive in Ethiopia either. 

Ethiopia and Eritrea, who have already fought a brutal war, look to be engaging in another arms race.  An arms race which according to former Canadian foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy, the UN’s special envoy for Ethiopia, is being fuelled by the irresponsible behaviour of a number of countries, including Russia:

"There are a lot of countries who should know better who are making good profit off the arms sales and I think some effort through the (U.N. Security) Council to put some limitations on that would be well worth looking at," he said.

(For background on the countries supplying Ethiopia and Eritrea with arms, see this BBC article).

Look out for an announcement sometime soon that the Ethiopian air force is to increase its stock of Sukhoi 27s.

Rosoboronexport, one of Russia’s state owned arms companies, is considering accepting oil and gas rights in payment for arms deals.

It makes good business sense for Rosoboronexport as the transfer of mineral rights is harder to default on than cash payments.  But it’s got to be bad business for the countries buying the arms.  Their mineral resources are often a key driver of their economies, and revenues from mineral sales make up a huge part of their state budgets.  If they just hand them to a Russian company, although there will be some benefit to their economies in terms of jobs, every single cent of profit to be made from those mineral resources will leave the country destined for Russian bank accounts.

In an opinion piece about last week’s rumours of a Russian missile sale to Syria, Pavel Felgenhauer notes a worrying aspect of the Russian arms trade in general.  Namely a lack of central control.

Ivanov stated that there were no official negotiations to sell missiles to Syria, but there are several different semiofficial entities in Russia that can negotiate and deliver almost any modern weapon while the authorities turn a blind eye, provided the buyer has the cash.

The latest Russian-Israeli missile crisis has once again highlighted the issue of who (if anyone) really controls the export of sensitive technologies and weapons from Russia. It sometimes seems that exports are only controlled by the greed of arms traders and corrupt bureaucrats.

I’m pretty sure Putin administration is able to tightly control sales of ‘high profile’ weaponry.  It isn’t going to get involved in a deal which upsets the United States without very carefully considering the implications.

But I wonder just how many smaller weapons get sold unbeknownst to the Kremlin.  It only takes a few SAMs in the wrong hands to not only kill hundreds of people, but to cause an international incident.