Much as expected, Vladimir Putin has generously offered to serve as Dmitry Medvedev’s Prime Minister.

Assuming, of course, that Medvedev is elected as President… there’s the not so tricky matter of a Presidential election to negotiate first.

“If the citizens of Russia show trust in Dmitry Medvedev and elect him the new president, I would be ready to continue our joint work as prime minister, without changing the distribution of authority,” said Putin.

Medvedev, as is to be expected, followed Putin’s announcement with a bit of well timed sucking up to his future lackey:

“The full implementation of this strategy is possible only together with its author, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… I don’t have the slightest doubt that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, in the future, will keep using his enormous political and professional resources, his influence both in our society and in the world, for the benefit of Russia and its citizens.”

Well, at least we can stop speculating - Putin will be Prime Minister, while Medvedev sits in the Kremlin as his puppet President.

Unless, of course, we’re wrong…

The entire Russian cabinet, including its Prime Minister has just resigned. A new PM hasn’t been chosen yet, but I’d be surprised if the announcement of Putin’s designated ‘heir’ isn’t imminent.

Especially when Putin gives quotes like this:

“The country is nearing parliamentary elections to be followed by presidential elections… We all need to think together about building the power and governing structure so that they can better meet the needs of the pre-election period, and prepare the country for the time after parliamentary and presidential elections in March 2008.”

The BBC reckons the next PM will be Sergei Ivanov.  I think they’re probably right.

Update:  Well, what do I know? 

Instead of appointing Ivanov as his next Prime Minister, Putin has appointed Viktor Zubkov, the relatively unknown head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service. 

The move seems to have wrong-footed most analysts, and the new, updated consensus seems to that there is a big unresolved power struggle between rival Kremlin clans, and that Zubkov got the job because he’s inoffensive (see, for example, the BBC).  But, if that’s the case, why did Fradkov resign as Prime Minister in the first place? 

Personally, I think it’s because Putin’s got a wicked sense of humour, and enjoys nothing better than spending his days winding up Kremlinologists.

In a must read article, Global Voices reports on some of the fractures in the broad Russian opposition.

Maria Gaidar was prevented from addressing the crowd by, allegedly, Eduard Limonov, leader of the National Bolshevik Party (NBP) and Garry Kasparov’s close ally in the Other Russia anti-government coalition.

The article goes on to translate blog entries from both Maria herself, and Ilya Yashin, which, I think perfectly illustrate the contradictions and conflicts within the current broadly constituted Russian opposition.

The harrasment of Garry Kasparov continues - this week Kasparov was prevented from flying to Samara, venue for this weekend’s EU-Russia summit:

Yesterday Mr Kasparov apparently outdid himself when he was detained at Moscow’s Sheremetevo airport on suspicion of forging his own airline ticket.

It was an elaborate plot, with suspicion falling on all those travelling with Mr Kasparov, including journalists from The Daily Telegraph, the Wall Street Journal and other organisations.

[…] Unable to resort to their favoured method for dealing with peaceful political demonstrations - violence - the authorities were going to have to come up with some other means to stop it going ahead.

Even so, farcical tactics that the administration did employ to keep Mr Kazparov in Moscow were astonishing in their brazenness.

Things started to go awry from the moment we entered the airport. As I placed my bag in the x-ray machine before check-in, a police officer approached me and asked for my passport and ticket, which had been reserved through Mr Kasparov’s office, although the Telegraph had paid for it.

The officer led me to a counter and told me there was a problem: The Aeroflot computer could not read my ticket. It seemed unlikely - he hadn’t even punched my travel details into the keyboard.

Shortly afterwards, Mr Kasparov and his colleagues arrived and was promptly told he would have to check in upstairs. “Why can’t I check in at the check in counter?” he asked - a reasonable enough question in the circumstances.

Airport officials clearly hadn’t worked out their story very well. Some of us were told the flight was overbooked, others that the tickets were unreadable.

If you thought that was ludicrous, read on:

Events turned even more surreal with the appearance of four medical orderlies in white coats, who handed out leaflets claiming that Mr Kasparov and Eduard Limonov, the leader of the radical National Bolshevik Party, were deranged and needed to be committed.

A stunt, it turned out, pulled by members of the Nashi youth wing, set up by the Kremlin to counter the spread of democracy.

The movement would later claim the orderlies had convinced airport staff to keep Other Russia officials off the flight because their madness posed a danger to other passengers.

All those who wanted to travel that day - including the journalists - were barred from flying and sent home, with a warning that they would probably face further investigation.

I’m particularly fascinated that this whole event took place (and directly affected) the world’s media. I can’t make up my mind whether this was intentional, to send a message, or whether they didn’t realise who his travelling companions were until it was too late, and this is a monstrous PR disaster.

A couple of stories have come out this week, saying that The Other Russia, an umbrella group of opposition parties, are meeting soon to pick a unified Presidential candidate to oppose any Kremlin-backed candidate in the March 2008.

The Guardian say they will be meeting in March.  Garry Kasparaov, however, says they’re meeting in July.

Whatever the date turns out to be, I for one will be mightily impressed if Russia’s disparate opposition parties do manage to pick one Presidential candidate, let alone stand united behind him throughout an entire election campaign.

Still, if I had to pick one candidate, I’d say that, if they’re going to unite behind anyone, it’ll be Mikhail Kasyanov, the former Prime Minister.  From the list of available candidates I’ve seen so far, he’s the only one who even approaches heavyweight status.

Sean reports that the Nashi website is unavailable to readers from outside of Russia:

Entering www.nashi.su into your favorite browser will turn up a “403 Forbidden” error. I’ve had limited success getting around this block using Russian proxy servers.

At the moment the Molodaia Gvardiia site is accessible and working. This brings me to believe that Nashi has blocked access to their own site. Kinda gives a whole new meaning to “Our own.”

Absolutely bizarre.  There can’t seriously be anyone in the Nashi organisation who thinks that doing this will actually reduce the negative coverage they receive outside of Russia, can there?

In a report that will surprise many, former Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar has concluded that he was poisoned by enemies of Russia:

Most likely […] some obvious or hidden adversaries of the Russian authorities stand behind the scenes of this event, those who are interested in further radical deterioration of relations between Russia and the west.

After all, Gaidar asks, who else would gain from his murder? The FSB or Kremlin are unlikely to want to undertake another high-profile poisoning so soon after Alexander Litvinenko (even assuming they were behind his death), and Gaidar has no business interests of note that would attract the interest of the Russian mafia.

Russia Blog also poses an interesting question about Gaidar’s poisioning:

The first thing he did when he became conscious enough to make his own decisions was to fly back to Moscow. Mr. Gaidar apparently feels safer receiving medical treatment close to the Kremlin than he does abroad. That fact should give Westerners who assume that the Russian government sanctioned these awful crimes pause.

I don’t really have the answers (sorry!).

Except to say that Gaidar’s poisoning should remind us all that Russia is a complex and multi-faceted country. It’s also a country beset with a lawlessness which gives ample opportunity for any political or economic faction to take matters into its own hands - with often violent results.

We’d do well to remember that when considering Alexander Litvinenko’s murder as well, rather than opting for the kneejerk - and oh so tempting - response of blaming Vladimir Putin personally.

Looks like Russian democracy has come on leaps and bounds while I’ve been away:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a measure canceling the 20-percent minimum voter turnout threshold for elections.

A mere 5% turnout is now sufficient to give an election democratic legitimacy in Russia.

The Russian Supreme Court has upheld the ban on Rodina taking part in the Moscow Duma elections. The nationalist party was barred for running a racist campaign ad.

RIA Novosti have produced a factsheet on Rodina. More background, and plenty of debate, is also available from this siberianlight.net post.

The election will be held tomorrow, and I’ll bring you an update of the results as soon after that as possible.

Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov has all but declared his intention to run for the Presidency in 2008. The Moscow Times reports a speech he gave on Monday:

“The party elected me leader, and as the leader I must carry out the party’s assignment to run for president,” Zyuganov said at a news conference where he presented Communist candidates for the upcoming Moscow City Duma elections. “If the party assigns me to run, I am ready to run.”

Zyuganov’s remarks signaled a change of heart from last year’s presidential election, which he skipped after his party’s weak showing in the 2003 State Duma elections. Putin overwhelmingly won re-election.

This is sensible politics from Zyuganov. He avoided running in the last election because (a) he didn’t have a hope of winning and didn’t want to embarass himself, and (b) wanted to demonstrate to Putin that he wasn’t directly challenging him, so that the Communists could better work with the Kremlin.

In 2008, though, Putin (probably) won’t be standing. If nothing unforseen happens over the next few years, Putin and the Kremlin retain their current standing with the electorate, and no liberal challenger rises to mount a significant challenge, he’ll hope to take advantage of the Communists core vote and any protest vote to gain a share of 20-30% and re-establish the Communist Party as a force in Russian politics. I’d say that, given the weakness of the other opposition parties at the moment, he has a fair chance of succeeding.

On the other hand, if something dramatic does happen - perhaps Putin’s nominated replacement will garner little support, and/or a real challenge does arise from an electoral candidate such as Mikhail Kasyanov, the Zyuganov will look at the Presidential race and consider it wide open. In such a scenario, where the electorate may well be divided, he will consider, he has as good a chance of winning the big job as anyone else.

If, by chance, someone like Kasyanov gains a big lead, then my first scenario will come back into play - Zyuganov will look to gain 20-30% of the vote, and re-establish the Communist party as a force in Russian politics again.

By declaring himself in the race early he will be hoping to gradually build momentum through pecking away at Putin’s government. I’d expect to see the Communists heading up and taking the credit for an increasing number of populist protests marches over the coming months as they try to woo those dissatisfied with Putin, and build a base from which to mount a serious challenge in 2008..

Sunday saw a raft of elections for local legislatures across Russia. Probably the most significant result of the weekend was for the Pensioners’ Party, who crept past United Russia to finish first in Tomsk. The St Petersburg Times, as a part of their roundup of election results, reports:

The Pensioner’s Party garnered slightly more than 19 percent of the vote in Sunday’s elections, while United Russia received slightly more than 17 percent, according to preliminary results released Monday, Interfax reported.

The result was unusual because United Russia, which dominates the State Duma, has managed to muster a majority in more than half of the country’s regional legislatures over the past two years.

The Pensioners’ Party aren’t going to make any great waves on the national scene - after all, they won withjust 19% of the votes on a 31% turnout - but it is very interesting to see just how fragmented and unpredictable the political party scene in Russia remains. While the electorate seems happy to rally behind one Presidential candidate every four years, we haven’t seen any political parties at all really emerge from the crowd in the almost decade and a half since the end of the Soviet Union.

Sean has been wondering whether it would be a good idea to bury Lenin or not, and he concludes with an interesting idea on Lenin’s importance in Russia, an idea not commonly heard in the West:

I think what Lenin stands for is changing in Russia. For better or for worse, he is becoming more like Peter the Great: a firm and decisive, but necessary ruler who thrust Russia into modernity. But that is historical memory for you. A new historical narrative emerges at the moment of forgetting. Even the Lenins of the world can find their place in the genealogy of the present.

I think he’s probably correct and, further, I think Stalin is beginning to be viewed in the same light.

If you thought that the demise of the Soviet Union meant the demise of closed, or secret cities, then you’d be wrong. Today, it is thought that there are up to forty closed cities (also referred as ZATO’s, or Zakrytye Administrativno-Territorial’nye Obrazovaniia) in Russia, although the Russian government will only confirm the existence of ten. These ten alone are home to 1.7 million people, who are severely restricted in their movements and their ability to participate in the democratic process, compared to their compatriots in neighbouring cities.

Freedom of movement is the biggest practical problem. True, movement generally is still quite restricted in Russia - for example, the need for residential permits means that many people who have moved to Moscow are living there illegally and have limited legal rights - but the issues facing closed cities are a class apart. Roemer Lemaître of the Belgian Institute for International Law [pdf file] observes that:

Apart from the right to freedom of movement the entry and residency restrictions imposed by the ZATO Law infringe directly or indirectly on a considerable number of other rights belonging to natural and legal persons resident within the ZATO as well as to outsiders. Identity checks and searches of bags and vehicles upon entry or exit from the ZATO run afoul of the right to privacy (Article 17 of the ICCPR and Article 8 of the ECHR). According to the same provisions, the right to family life might be violated if someone is not allowed to live with his/her close family because he/she did not get the required security clearance. Limitations on property rights (especially those that largely exclude property rights for outsiders) contradict Article 1 of the First Protocol to the ECHR.

Foreigners also face many restrictions, as this news report about the announcement that the mining city of Norilsk was to become a closed city indicates:

Under the restrictions, as of Monday the city is closed to all non-Russians – except Belarusians. Any foreigner wishing to travel to Norilsk must first obtain special permission from the FSB, the Russian state security police.

Lebed stated that he will demand that all foreigners – whether living as residents or presently visiting – leave Norilsk.

The restrictions placed on residents in closed cities also directly inhibit their ability to participate fully in the democratic process - such as it is in Russia these days. The role of the media, in particular, is heavily restricted:

Federal and local mass media have no access to closed cities. Besides, local media are poorly developed, scanty and usually controlled either by agencies that they belong to, or by commercial price of information. Almost the whole volume of information flow in and out of ZATOs is censoring in order to assure its safety for ZATOs system’ existence. None of independent pressmen are allowed to visit ZATOs.

I haven’t specifically seen any sources mentioning it, but I would imagine that freedom of association - for example, in the sense of the ability to join protests - is also heavily restricted.

No other democracy today has closed cities. Today, with the exception of Russia, they are the preserve of crackpot dictatorships, like North Korea. Even China doesn’t feel the need to close off whole cities from its own people.

Unless there is something that Russia and North Korea know that the rest of the world doesn’t, I think it is safe to conclude that closed cities are no longer necessary for security. And, if that is the case, then Russia’s justification for restricting the human rights of almost 2 million of its own citizens rings hollow.

Now that Mikhail Khodorkovsky is no longer eligible to stand for Russian Duma Seat #201, it looks like the race is wide open. Which means, of course, that candidates are popping out of the woodwork left, right, and centre (not to mention a few other interesting locations):

Renowned satirist Viktor Shenderovich and former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar’s daughter have joined an increasingly circus-like race for a State Duma seat in a Moscow by-election, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s campaign team said Tuesday that it would support one of the two because it could not find a suitable candidate to replace the jailed billionaire.

My star candidate at the moment, though, has to be retired FSB Colonel Vladimir Kvachkov. He’s currently in jail, accused of attempting to assassinate energy oligarch Anatoly Chubais.

Oh, Mikhail, Mikhail, look what you’ve done - you’ve made a mockery of Russian democracy!

Vladimir Putin once again managed to throw Kremlin watchers into a tizz, by giving another cryptic answer to the question of what he intends to do in 2008 when his second term as President runs out.

Asked if there should be a referendum about whether he should run for a third term, Putin replied:

“I see my task as to create the conditions for the country’s long-term development. Therefore I view any radical changes to the law, above all the Russian Federation’s constitution, as inadvisable.”

“My task as I see it is not to sit in the Kremlin for ever, so that people always see the same face on the TV, on channels one, two or three. As for me personally, as they say in the military: ‘I’ll find my place in line’.”

And then, as if he hadn’t done enough, when someone later asked him to elaborate, he added:

”Let’s preserve the intrigue”

I’m still pretty certain he’s not going to stand for President again in 2008 - although I wouldn’t necessarily rule out a campaign in 2012 - but really wouldn’t be surprised to see a fudge which allows him to remain in a powerfully influential role, a la Jiang Zemin in China. But, let’s face it, I’m as much in the dark as every other Kremlinologist

Reaction in Russia to his televised performance - his fourth in as many years - seems positive. RIA Novosti political commentator Vasily Kononenko was particularly impressed that Putin had reconfirmed his image as a responsible leader:

I will point out what seemed most important to me. During the three-hour call-in show Putin demonstrated that he was in excellent physical shape. He showed high erudition, and responded without hesitation to the most challenging questions. For example, he answered a question about the situation in the university of the transpolar town of Vorkuta. When asked about the luxurious private residences that are being built with public money in republics in the south of Russia, the president showed that he is on top of this situation as well. He admitted that theft was taking place, but promised that this evil would be dealt with.

International commentators were somewhat less kind, however. Nick Paton Walsh of The Guardian noted that:

Mr Putin yesterday appeared distracted and tired at times when answering 60 questions sent in by SMS, email and a link-up with 12 Russian towns.

The overall impression I got of the interview was that it was yet another piece of inconsequential fluff, put out for public consumption, an impression reinforced by incidents where Putin, when asked about a minor local issue, puffed out his chest and firmly stated that he, personally, would act to resolve the situation by telling someone else to do something:

In a letter, Karachentseva wrote that she and other villagers had to walk 300 meters to the nearest well to bring water to their houses, despite the fact that money to build a water pipe system had been promised from the regional budget.

“The issue of submitting candidacies for your governor’s post is being considered now,” Putin said. “The documents for the incumbent governor are ready, but have not been sent. And they will not be sent, until he solves this problem.”

This is all very well, but the best thing that Putin could do for Russia right now is to once and for all end the speculation over his future and set a precedent for tranparent politics.