Aleksei Ostrovsky, head of the Duma’s Committee for CIS Affairs has recommended that the Russian Government create diplomatic missions at the territories of three unrecognized republics – Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Trans-Dneister (Pridnestrovie).

According to Interfax, the document, which has been prepared for discussion and further confirmation in the Duma, recommends that Russia work to “achieve representatives’ participation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie in all international organizations and forums, where their interests are discussed and touched.”

Also it was recommended that Russia should “resist firmly any attempts of external pressure – political, economical or military - concerning these three republics” and that the Russian Parliament suggest to the Russian Federation government that it“maintain existing forms of peacekeeping operations to settle conflicts around Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie based on mutual conventions”.

According to the report:

“Nowadays the situation in the zone of Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-Ossetia conflicts becomes more and more complicated. Politics realized by Tbilisi is extravagant, unpredictable and sometimes destructive. Georgia is trying to break existing algorithims of conflict settlement and compromise the Russian peacekeepers’ mission. This gives a reason to Abkhazians and Ossetians to believe that Georgian administration chooses military option”.

The report’s authors note that mandate of peacekeeping forces, which are operating in the territory of the conflicts between Georgia and Abkhazia, Georgia and Ossetia, only allows them to “split the rivals, maintain regime of security and stop the fire”. To change this mandate would require the agreement of all sides. But neither Abkhazia, nor South Osetia have given their agreement, because they are afraid the departure of Russian peacekeepers would lead to destabilization of the situation in the region.

The authors of the project believe that the precedent set in Kosovo, wich recently declared its independence will have consequences for other “frozen conflicts.” If these conflicts remain “frozen,” this will be provoke new stage of confrontation between conflict sides. And this confrontation will be negative for the population.

Nugzar Ashuba, the head of Parliament of Abkhazia, speaking in the Duma, asked Russia to recognize independence of this self-proclaimed republic as soon as possible. He told Duma members that:

“The Russian Federation now (after the Kosovo incident) has enough reasons to declare the independence of Abkhazia all over the world. By doing this Russia will establish its international weight.”

Ashuba also mentioned that the Georgian government must be interested in recognition new status of republic, because Abkhazia has proved that it was able to survive as an independent entity.

“We think that if Georgia recognizes independence of Abkhazia, its government will solve many other socio-economical problems and the Georgian people will be free from waiting for war every moment.”

The rest of the Duma’s discussion was closed to journalists, but according to one source, some Duma deputies consider that Russia has to support these self-proclaimed republics, because they will never be part of Georgia again.

It is the time to remember words of President Putin during the visit of Angela Merkel last week. He reminded us that case of Kosovo would have a lot of consequences for the world.

Now we have the beginning. Who is next?

Despite an international arms embargo affecting both government and rebel forces, it appears that military equipment from the Former Soviet Union is still managing to make its way into the Ivory Coast, the Telegraph reports:

Gen Fall, who commands 6,000 troops, said there was evidence to suggest that the vehicles, which had been ordered by Ivory Coast’s army and brought in on a ship flying a Danish flag, had come from Russia. He urged that an official protest should be lodged.

The apparent violation of the embargo is not the only such example. In a separate document, Gen Fall reported that a man "speaking Russian on his mobile phone" was seen working on government-owned aircraft at Abidjan airport, with three other engineers.

And on another occasion five men of "East European origin" were seen inspecting military aircraft.

I’d say that there is a pretty strong chance this equipment came in with, if not the official sanction of an FSU state, then a nod and a wink.  Whether it came originally from Belarus or Russia isn’t certain, although I’d say Belarus is certainly a strong candidate even though, as a landlocked country it would have to ship its wares through a foreign port (and perhaps this explains the Danish ship coming from a Russian port…).   

Although there is an embargo in place, if a government supplying arms (lets say it is the aforementioned Belarus - for the sake of convenience, of course, and not at all to imply that they are the supplier in question) can circumvent that embargo it can realise significant benefits - both short and long term.

Many African countries, although they have the money to buy an air-force in the first place, lack the technical expertise or the infrastructure to maintain it.  They lack the ability to manufacture spare parts, they lack technicians and, most importantly, they lack the trained pilots to turn an unwieldy hunk of metal into an effective airborne killing machine.  So usually, whenever an African country buys an aircraft from a FSU state, they buy a ‘care package’ to go with it, including a technical support staff and pilots.  (This isn’t to say that African states have no technicians or pilots at all, just that their own are usually less well trained.  Imported expertise, although costlier, is far more proficient, and therefore more cost-effective).

The Ivory Coast will most likely have purchased one of these ‘care packages’ from Belarus, and will not be able to effectively operate their air force without outside support.  For Belarus, even though there is now an embargo, there are strong incentives to continue this support, even if it means they have to do so in a manner that is technically illegal.  Belarus, if it can prove its worth as a reliable supplier that continues to maintain its equipment, even in a demanding environment (i.e. an illegal one), will comprehensively demonstrate its reliability as a supplier.  Belarus will be hoping that Ivory Coast will, after the embargo is over, make them their ’supplier of choice’ and thus winning them contracts worth tens (perhaps hundreds) of millions of dollars.  And the benefits wouldn’t just include a relationship with Ivory Coast either - in fact, the Ivory Coast are small fry compared to the potential market out there.  There are plenty of other African governments in the market for an air-force, and many of these governments will also be concerned that they too might one day find themselves under an embargo.  These governments will hopefully be so impressed by Belarus’ integrity, and dedication to fulfilling its obligations, that they too will make Belarus their first port of call when seeking out their next airborne killing machine. 

Plus, of course, there is plenty of money to be made in the short-term from sanctions busting…

(Hat tip to Bill Roggio of Winds of Change for pointing me in the direction of the original Telegraph article).

Continuing protests in southern Kyrgyzstan are giving rise to speculation that Russia might intervene militarily.  Democracy Guy and Registan.net both correctly say, however, that the Russian military isn’t capable of an unwanted intervention (read: invasion), and the geo-political ramifications would be immense - certainly far more than the Kremlin wants to deal with right now. 

A peacekeeping mission, probably at the invitation of President Akayev, seems to be the only remaining option open to Russia if it wants to find some way of directly intervening in Kyrgyzstan, but that too is an option fraught with problems.  Problems which I believe would prevent any peacekeeping mission from getting off the ground, no matter how dire the situation in Kyrgyzstan might become.

A peacekeeping mission certainly isn’t under serious discussion today - President Akayev probably doesn’t see himself as directly under threat while the opposition is contained in the south of the country. But it could be if tensions escalate further and - crucially - if an ethnic conflict develops.  The protests right now are centered in the south of Kyrgyzstan, which has a predominately Uzbek population.  Although the ethnic dimensions of these protests are pretty largely under-reported at the moment they are there, and they could explode to the forefront if events do begin to spiral out of control.

So, what form would a peacekeeping mission take?  Well, if Akayev were to invite peacekeepers into Kyrgyzstan, he would turn to Russia first.  Russia strongly backs his rule, and he could be fairly confident that Russian peacekeepers would continue to back him over any opposition groups.  Russia wouldn’t be able to just go in by itself, of course.  Although this would be the Kremlin’s preferred solution it would also invite howls of protest from the international community, not to mention inflame the Kyrgyz opposition still further. 

Russia’s President Putin would have to cover any peacekeeping mission in at least a veil of legitimacy, which means going in under the aegis of an international body.  Three candidates spring immediately to mind, each with major drawbacks: the Commonwealth of Independent States, the United Nations, and the little known Shanghai Co-operation Organisation.

The CIS route is the most obvious choice, but it does not assure success for Putin.  Ukraine and Georgia are both members of the CIS, and would have strong concerns about a CIS intervention.  At the very least, they would refuse to join a peacekeeping mission.  Although Russia could technically launch a CIS peacekeeping mission without the participation of many CIS members - indeed, most CIS missions are made up primarily of Russian troops - the mission would again lack legitimacy in the eyes of the world, and the eyes of many in Kyrgyzstan. 

The UN route is obviously a non-stater for Putin.  There is (a) no way he would accept a UN mission without substantial Russian involvement and control, and (b) no way that the US, UK and France would approve a Russian-led UN mission.  China would also probably have concerns about such a mission, as Kyrgyzstan is on China’s Northwestern border.  A UN mission led by the US, or the EU is similarly a non-starter as the Kremlin would have kittens at the thought of such a large ‘enemy’ force actually within the CIS.

The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) is a Central Asian security body made up of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.  It’s major advantage is that it is the local security body and has a certain legitimacy within the region, although little legitimacy beyond that.  It also brings China into the equation, which would act as a balance to Russian power.  Its disadvantages, however, are numerous.  Firstly, the SCO has never launched a military operation before, and certainly nothing of the level of complexity of a peacekeeping mission.  Secondly, bringing Chinese troops into the region is likely to make the United States more than a little jittery.  Thirdly, China could probably work either well with the current Kyrgyz government or the opposition if it gains power.  Is it really in China’s interests to get directly involved?  Finally, from Russia’s perspective, working within the SCO framework would mean ceding substantial autonomy.  Russia would have great difficulty in keeping a puppet Akayev regime in place if Chinese troops were also on the scene. 

The bottom line for the key protagonists in Kyrgyzstan is that they really had better sort this mess out between themselves.  The politics of launching a peacekeeping mission are such that, if they do manage to drag themselves into a civil war - and thankfully they are a way off from doing that just yet - nobody is going to be able to come in and rescue them from it any time soon.

(This article is also posted at Publius Pundit).