British security services believe Russia poses the third greatest threat to British security.

According to the report in the Times newspaper, agents think only al-Qaeda related terrorism and Iran nuclear development pose greater risks.

Interestingly, no particular reasons are given as to why Russia is such a great threat to British security, so I thought I’d run through a whistlestop tour of what I think are the key threats that the security services think Russia poses to Britain today.

Energy security

In a world of rising oil and gas prices, it should come as no surprise that everyone is worrying about how they can ensure a reliable future supply of energy.

Russia supplies a fairly small, but growing proportion of Britain’s energy needs, and nobody wants to be at the mercy of a country that is prone to cutting off oil and gas supplies to make political points. Particularly when, as was the case recently, cuts in supply to Ukraine mean effective, but unintended cuts for European countries further along the pipeline network.

Currently, energy security probably isn’t the biggest Russian threat that Britain faces, but it’s a growing one and one that security watchers will be keeping a close eye on.

Risk to British military & peacekeeping activity

Russia is - rather like Britain at times - a mid-sized power that hasn’t quite grasped that its glory days are behind it. Like most countries, it likes to meddle in the affairs of others but, because of its relative weakness, it’s influence tends towards the irritatingly destructive rather than the constructive.

Two particular areas that Russia likes to meddle in are the Balkans and Central Asia. And British troops are stationed in both of these areas.

Instability in Kosovo, which Russia sometimes doesn’t seem to worried about provoking, could potentially lead to attacks on British troops in the area or, at the extreme draw British troops into another local conflict.

Meanwhile, instability in Tajikistan doesn’t help the security situation in Afghanistan, where Britain has almost 8,000 troops stationed. (Of course, the flip side of this is that Russia could argue that NATO is prolonging instability in Afghanistan, indirectly endangering Russia’s 7,000 strong military presence there…).

Russians in Britain

There are currently more than 300,000 Russians living and working in the UK. Worries are growing that they bring their disputes with them and oftentimes will settle them in a manner that is outside the law and rarely involves a nice cup of tea (polonium flavoured tea excepted, naturally).

Russian criminal gangs are also active in London - money laundering is one of their specialties - and I’d imagine this takes up quite a bit of the security services’ time, not to mention the police’s. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it turned out that at least some of the funding intended for terrorist groups in the UK came via Russian criminal groups. (This isn’t to say that the Russian government is sponsoring terrorism in the UK - more that criminals don’t really worry too much where their money comes from).

Russian spies

The Telegraph reports that there are 30 known Russian spies operating in Britain - that’s the equivalent of one in five of the official Russian mission in London.

Keeping tabs on them is, if you believe the security services, more challenging than monitoring other countries’ agents. Instead of just checking they don’t steal secrets, the security service have to watch them in case they assassinate someone else: “Russia is a country which is under suspicion of committing murder on British streets and it must be assumed that having done it once they will do it again,” said the “senior security services source” quoted by the Telegraph.

Direct military threat

There’s been plenty of coverage of the large numbers of Tu-95 bombers flying around UK airspace recently. The chances of them launching an actual attack are, of course, pretty much zero - can you imagine a Tu-95 making a run at Buckingham Palace? But, even though Tu-95 flights give the RAF some much needed practice, there will always be the concern that so many encounters might result in a misunderstanding somewhere along the line.

Is Russia really the 3rd biggest threat to British security?

I must confess, when I originally read the article, my first thought was that it was over-excitable journalism, feeding on current British paranoia about Russia. Yes, Russia presents a threat to British security, I thought, but it’s not really that great a threat.

Then I sat down and thought through a few of the reasons why we might need to be concerned about Russia and came up with the rough and ready list above. It’s not a huge list of concerns, and it’s certainly not end of the world stuff, but add it all together and I can see why the British security services believe that Russia poses a fairly large threat to British security.

And then I thought - what countries or organisations pose a greater threat to British security than Russia, and why? And, other than al-Qaeda and Iran, who have already been noted, I couldn’t think of any. Can anyone else?

Image credit

British RAF planes intercept Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers once a week, reports populist British newspaper The Sun.

The enterprising paper filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the British Ministry of Defence which revealed that, during the seven months to January 2008, RAF interceptors were sent up to meet Russian bombers 28 times. For comparison, during the previous 6 months, RAF interceptors were scrambled just twice.

The Sun is, of course, righteously indignant at the cost to the good old British taxpayer. According to them, it costs approximately £30,000 ($60,000) per hour to keep an RAF fighter in the air. They’ve calculated that, over the past seven months, the RAF has spent more than £3.5 million ($7 million) to meet the Russian threat.

Buried mid-way through the article is the news that none of the Russian bombers have entered British airspace and, in truth, almost all of the contacts have been over the Artic or the North Sea. You would never know this from the article’s title though - “Hey you, get off of our cloud”.

Or from the over-worked ’senior RAF source who reports exactly what Russian command want to hear:

“We have to take these bombers seriously, just in case. It runs us ragged.”

I’m sure the RAF are quite right to intercept Russian bombers flying near British airspace - they are after all, flying very close - but it’s indicative of the poor press Russia is getting at the moment that hysterical over-reaction is now becoming the norm.

If you want to see the impact reporting like this is having on many in the British public, take a look at the comments to The Sun article.

Oh, and two more quick thoughts before I go. I wonder how much it’s costing the Russian air force to send these bombers out? Probably not as much as the British RAF. And, finally… I wonder if the Russian Air Force would tell me how much it costs if I were to ask???

It looks as though the British Council is going to reluctantly cede to Russian demands that it close its offices in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

According to the BBC, the British Council are to release a statement later today:

A formal statement from the director of the British Council is expected on Thursday.

Sources have told the BBC there does not appear to be much appetite for retaliation at the Foreign Office, where there is a recognition that Britain has few options left in the row.

Each and every Russian member of staff at the British Council was either questioned yesterday by the FSB, or received a late-night home visit from an interior ministry official. They were apparently told in no uncertain terms that their jobs were illegal, and that if they continued to work for the British Council, they would be breaking the law.

The British Council, in their statement, are likely to stress that their decision was motivated by a desire to ensure the safety of their staff - and quite rightly so. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Council’s British staff can just go home at the end of this dispute - the Council’s Russian staff have to stay and face any consequences.

One thing that hasn’t been raised is what the immediate future of Russian British Council staff members - I’m sure the Council will do what it can fothem, but in the very near future, they will officially lose their jobs, and their monthly paychecks.

Overall, I agree with the British Council’s decision at this point. Any responsible employer would do the same. The British Council played the hand they were dealt as well as they could, but ultimately it was a weak hand - the Russian government held all the aces.

According to the BBC, the British Council plan to take the ‘moral high ground’ over this issue - to stress that this is Russia’s loss, rather than Britain’s.

This may play on the international stage but, on the Russian domestic stage, I think this will look very much like a victory for Russia, and a triumph for Putin and Medvedev in the run up to March’s Presidential election.

Update: Both the British Council and British Foreign Minister David Miliband have issued statements on the issue. Here are a couple of hefty excerpts:

British Council statement (pdf):

At the start of this week the Russian Government initiated a campaign of intimidation against our staff in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

On Tuesday 15 January, the Russian State Security Services (FSB) summoned over 20 Russian staff to attend individual interviews.

Late that night 10 members of staff were visited at home by the Russian tax police and called to further interviews yesterday.

The interviews had little to do with their work and were clearly aimed at exerting undue pressure on innocent individuals.

Our paramount consideration is the wellbeing of our staff and I feel we cannot continue our work without significant risk to them.

David Miliband statement to Parliament:

The Russian security services summoned over 20 locally-engaged members of British Council staff in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg one by one for interviews. 10 members of staff were interviewed late at night in their homes after calls by the Russian tax police. Questioning ranged from the institutional status of the British Council to personal questions about the health and welfare of family pets.

Mr Speaker, these Russian citizens have chosen to offer their skills and hard work to promote cultural contact between the people of Russia and the UK. As a result, they have been the subject of blatant intimidation from their own government.

Mr Speaker, I think the whole House will agree that such actions are reprehensible, not worthy of a great country, and contrary to the letter and spirit of the legal framework under which the British Council operates - notably international law, including the Vienna Conventions, and the UK/Russia 1994 bilateral agreement on cultural cooperation which Russia has ratified.

Russia has failed to show any legal reasons under Russian or international law why the British Council should not continue to operate. Russia has also failed to substantiate its claims that the British Council is avoiding paying tax. The British Council is in fact registered for tax in Russia and has complied with all requests of the tax authorities in respect of its activities. Therefore, instead of taking legal action against the Council, they have resorted to intimidation of the Council’s staff.

Later on in his statement, Miliband (correctly, but rather smugly, it seemed to me) outlined the moral high ground that Britain plans to occupy:

We regard as entirely separate issues Mr Litvinenko’s murder and the activities of the British Council to build up links between British and Russian schools and universities, to support English language teaching in Russia and Russian studies in the UK, and to promote the best of British drama, writing, music, and art.

Nor do we believe that cultural activities should become a political football; in fact educational and cultural activities are important ways of bringing people together. That is why I have decided not to take similar action against Russia’s cultural activities in the UK, for example by sending back Russian masterpieces scheduled for show at the Royal Academy, or by taking measures against the two Russian diplomats at the Russian Embassy dedicated to cultural work.

We have nothing to fear from these contacts; we welcome and encourage them.

The British Government has today accused the Russian authorities of the “intimidation and harassment of British officials.”

The accusations come after many of the Council’s Russian staff were questioned yesterday by the FSB.

Every other Russian member of the Council’s staff was reportedly visited at their homes late at night by Interior Ministry officials, although no reports of the conversations that took place have emerged yet.

Stephen Kinnock, a Director of the British Council, and son of Neil Kinnock, a prominent former British politician, was also arrested by Russian police late last night for a breach of traffic regulations. He was briefly held at a St Petersburg police station before being collected by the British Counsul General.

The British Government is, as you would imagine, not happy. The Russian Ambassador was summoned to receive a formal protest, and the Foreign Minister David Miliband told press:

“Any intimidation or harassment of officials is obviously completely unacceptable.

“The only losers from any attack on the British Council are Russian citizens who want to use the British Council - and the reputation of the Russian government.”

The British Council have also issued a comment to the press:

“Our main concern is for the safety and security of our Russian and UK staff. We are deeply concerned by these incidents,” said a statement from the council this morning.

“We can confirm that last night Stephen Kinnock was followed, stopped and subsequently released an hour later by Russian authorities.

“We can also confirm that our Russian national staff, in both St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, were yesterday summoned for interview by the FSB at their headquarters and subsequently visited in their homes late last night by officials of the Russian ministry of interior.”

Quite rightly, the British Council have focused on the welfare of the Russian national staff who work for them. Because they’ll be feeling much more nervous today than the Council’s British employees, who will just be reassigned to another country at the end of this affair.

The British Council has this week opened its offices in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg in defiance of the Russian goverment’s order that the offices be closed.

The decision ratchets up Russo-British tensions another notch although, so far, the disagreement seems to be limited to a war of words - British Foreign Minister David Miliband accused Russia of holding the Council “hostage”; his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov hit back by accusing Britain of “nostalgia for colonial times”.

However, I’m not sure that this dispute will remain a war of words for much longer - at some point, it is bound to escalate. The British Council has clearly set out its position, so the ball is now in Russia’s court - in order to not seem incompetent it either needs to take action through the courts, or through more direct means.

The British Ambassador was summoned to the Kremlin earlier this week to explain his country’s actions. He told the Press Association that, while there, he had:

he had been presented with a “long piece of paper” setting out the Russians’ view of the legal position.

This would seem to indicate legal action of some kind, but it isn’t quite clear what form this action would take. The Russian authorities have hinted that they would soon attempt to claim back taxes from the British Council and bar its employees from receiving new visas, but this seems to be a rather long term approach.

I wonder how long the Kremlin can really allow the British Council offices to remain defiantly open before the Russian Government begins to seem impotent in the eyes of its people - particularly in the run-up to a critical Presidential election…

Then you might want to head on down to London auction house Christie’s next Wednesday - as a part of Russian Art Week, they’re holding an auction of valuable Russian artwork.

Arts, books, silverware and icons worth an estimated $74 million are to go under the hammer, and much of the collection is expected to go to wealthy Russians living in London.

Top billing will be given to the Rothschild Faberge Egg, which is expected to sell for a staggering $12-18 million - a record for a Faberge egg. Made in 1902 for the Rothschild family, it was apparently never publicly documented, and has never been seen before in public. According to auctioneer Anthony Philips, the egg is also one of the most unique of Karl Faberge’s eggs:

“There are only two other known Faberge eggs that have a clock in them and also an automaton. When the clock strikes the cock come up, shakes its wings and sings.”

You can see a video of the egg here - I recommend holding out for the end of the video, where the clock is displayed in action.

For more on the history of this beautiful egg, visit Artnow Online.

There are a few, relatively low key stories in the British papers today about the ‘capture’ of a Russian spy in England, but it’s a bit of an odd story.

Peter Hill, the 23 year old ex Territorial Army soldier suspected of spying, appeared in court in Leeds today. He was arrested under the Official Secrets Act but, rather oddly, he’s being tried under the Explosive Substances Act, for possession of ingredients to make a bomb. Nobody seems quite sure what those ingredients are though - The Times claim a search of Hill’s house revealed “sodium chlorate, hexamine tablets and a metal tube” but the more local Burnley Citizen say that police found “weed killer, nail varnish, sugar and a metal tube”.

From the press reports, it is seeming less and less like this is a major breakthrough by MI5 - more the arrest of a bumbling British fantasist and wannabe spy. The Times reports:

The inquiry is not focusing on an elaborate plot by the Russians, but is being viewed as a suspected attempt by an individual to contact the Russian intelligence service on an “opportunistic” basis.

A theory given further credence by this series of interviews by friends and neighbours of Hill:

“He was in the TA and he was always interested in the army, but for the last couple of years he’s been working for a mortgage company in Skipton.

“He’s the kind of person who is always doing one crazy thing one day and then he’s got his heart set on something else just as weird the next.

“He has always been a bit of a fantasist, and definitely one on his own, but he has friends - there’s no way he’s a loner.”

Of course, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, this could all be an elaborate smokescreen - particularly as all this takes place at the same time as Russia honours British double agent George Blake.

Perhaps the British authorities are trying to insinuate that all Russian spies are actually bumbling fools…

Following England’s announcement that it will definitely bid to host the 2018 football World Cup, rumours are flying that England’s World Cup bid could be subject to a deal with Russia.

Russia are also thought to be considering a bid for the World Cup in 2018 and, while the consensus is that England would probably put together the stronger bid, the English Football Association fear that the Russian bid could take away valuable votes from England, handing the world cup to the US or China instead.

So what better way around this problem than for the two nations to forge a gentlemans agreement? If Russia withdraws from the 2018 World Cup race, then England would support a Russian bid to host the 2016 European Championship.

From the perspective of both Russia and England, this deal seems like a great idea. England get the clear run they need at the World Cup, and Russia, which realistically would have trouble coping with the logistical demands of the World Cup at the moment, gets to host a tournament in which to showcase its rapidly improving infrastructure and which could prove a valuable stepping stone to a future World Cup bid, perhaps in 2026.

Of course, the English FA are flatly denying that they are considering a deal with Russia - an FA spokesman told the Sun:

“We reject any suggestion there is a pact.”

And Russia would be advised to tread with care anyway when doing deals with the English - if they look back through their history books they’ll discover that the not always honourable English FA made a gentlemans agreement to support a German World Cup bid in 2006, following German support for the English Euro 96 bid. England, of course, reneged on the deal, offering their support elsewhere at the last minute.

The Germans had the last laugh though, as they won the right to host the 2006 World Cup without English support, so perhaps the Russians should instead see the prospect of a broken gentlemens agreement with England as a good omen…

Front page of the Guardian newspaper yesterday was a story about rising fears of an energy crisis this winter in the UK.

Britain faces the prospect of power shortages and soaring prices this winter after the National Grid warned of a shortfall in electricity-generating capacity yesterday. The alert coincides with a surge in gas prices, which are now 40% higher than in continental Europe, and the confirmation that a vital import plant in South Wales will not be operational this winter.

The UK’s energy infrastructure is literally creaking at the seams. Top this off with problems importing gas from mainland Europe because of a lack of pipelines to cross the sea, and you can see why energy costs way more in the UK than it does elsewhere in Europe.

What does this mean for Russia, you ask? Simple - it means that energy - or, rather, Britain’s lack of energy - is going to be high in the public consciousness. And where do the public think their energy comes from? Yep, you guessed it - Russia.

I can’t think of anything more likely to keep Russia as the evil energy giant on the front pages of newspapers across the United Kingdom. Say goodbye to closer relations with Russia in the forseeable future…

(Although, to give the Guardian credit, they didn’t mention Russia in their report).

A row seems to be on the verge of starting over a Russian art exhibition in London.

The London Royal Academy of Arts is to host an exhibition of Russian and French masterpieces in January next year, but concerns are growing that the art will be impounded by the courts if anyone brings an case claiming that the Russian government owes them money. Unless they receive explicit guarantees that their paintings will not be seized, a number of Russian museums are threatening to refuse to let their paintings travel to England.

Russian artwork has previously been seized in Switzerland as security against debts, although the paintings were eventually released and handed back to the Russian state.

The British government is - so it says - doing all it can to ensure that the arts aren’t seized. The government has even gone so far as to draft a new law which will specifically prevent works of art loaned to British museums from being seized. The only problem is that the law won’t come into force until shortly after the paintings arrive in London.

Which leaves a brief window of opportunity for anyone who feels that the Russian state owes them money to launch a court case.

Boris Berezovsky, are you reading?

To make matters worse, Vladimir Putin is to visit Britain in January where he is to attend the opening of the exhibition with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Presumably, they also plan to announce that - spy scandals aside - Russia and Britain are really the best of friends. Instead, they might end up in yet another bitter row, sniping at each other over a few pretty old paintings.

If you’re an optimist, by the way, the exhibition - From Russia: French and Russian Master Paintings 1870-1925 -opens at the Royal Academy, London, on January 26.

Russia stormed back from a goal down to beat England 2-1 in their Euro 2008 qualifying match. 

England went ahead courtesy of an early Wayne Rooney goal and, with just over twenty minutes to play, had looked to be in control of the game and well on their way to the European Championships.  But, in an inspired move, coach Gus Hiddink brought Roman Pavluchenko onto the pitch - he went on to score both of Russia’s goals.

The result leaves Russia in control of their destiny - they need only to win their next two games against Israel and the not very mighty Andorra.  England, on the other hand, can only realistically qualify if they win their last match and Russia slip up.

England coach Steve McLaren has refused to blame England’s defeat on Russia’s decision to cover the pitch with artificial turf.  Instead, he went down the time honoured route of blaming the referee instead:

“The pitch had nothing to do with it,” he said. “It was lively. They had more preparation, but I’m not making that an excuse.”

“…I’ve just seen the penalty again. It’s an absolute disgrace. It’s outside the box. The linesman didn’t give it. It was the referee [who awarded the penalty] from quite some distance [away]. Things like that turn games.” 

The BBC on the other hand, have no doubts. Engand’s defeat can be blamed on Russian gamesmanship:

McClaren will have been peturbed to see the synthetic surface being heavily watered before kick-off, a move clearly designed to make conditions more favourable for Hiddink’s side.

It’s days like this that I try to forget I’m an Englishman.

Apparently not much has changed since the cold war.  If you are a spy and you happen to speak Russian, business is still booming.   

According to Nikolai Patrushev, Director of the FSB, the British, in league with their American chums, have been egging on the Poles, the Georgians, criminals in Russia and those evil, evil NGOs to try and meddle in Russian politics. 

In an interview with Argumenty y Fakty magazine (translated by EurasiaNet), Patrushev claimed that the British were the most active, and reprehensible spies in Russia today:

…one should specially single out Britain, whose special organs not only conduct intelligence in all areas but also seek to influence the development of the domestic political situation in our country.

[…] Since the times of Queen Elizabeth I SIS officials have been guided by the principle that “the end justifies the means.” Money, bribery, blackmail, and release from punishment for crimes committed are their principal recruitment methods.

Apparently the Turkish and Pakistani secret services are also particularly active at the moment.

But don’t worry - everything’s ok.  Russian counter-intelligence is on the case:

During the period since 2003 more than 270 active cadre officers and 70 agents of foreign intelligence services have been uncovered, including 35 Russian citizens.

Clearly foreign intelligence need to train their spies better.

Update: For the England v Russia result, check out my match report.

Russia play England next week in a crucial qualifying match for the 2008 European Championships - and already the arguments have begun over Russia’s artificial football pitch.

Usually artficial turf is banned in international matches, but occasionally UEFA make an exception and allows countries with extreme weather conditions - and Russia certainly qualifies on that count - to use an astroturf pitch. 

But the England camp are crying foul - or, perhaps, calling out chicken (ahem) - claiming that the only reason Russia won’t play on real grass is because they are afraid they’ll lose to an England team who trounced Russia 3-0 in London just a matter of weeks ago:

Michael Davis, spokesman for the Fieldturf company, said: 

“After the defeat, they said that they will play on the existing surface,” Davis said. “The Russians had agreed there would be a new surface, but the result at Wembley changed that.

“Some of the Russia players will have played on that surface before, knowing that the England players haven’t.”

Still, according to Goal.com, England have a contingency plan:

they are scheduled to train at the only pitch in the country that boasts an exact replica of the Moscow pitch, that of The Blessed Thomas Holford Catholic College in Altrincham. 

I must confess, Altrincham wasn’t top of the list of places I thought I’d find an exact replica of the Luzhniki Olympic Stadium but, you learn something new every day, as they say.

Anyway - moving on - Russia’s fans are desparate to watch the England game, fake pitch or not.  UEFA report that, despite pouring rain, 70,000 people formed a queue almost a mile long for the chance to buy one of 6,500 tickets still available for the game.

Update: Shamefully, I neglected to link to Ger O’Brien’s excellent article - Last Chance Saloon for Russia at Luzhniki - over at Sean’s Russia Blog.  What can I say?  I’m still slowly catching up on my blog reading…

Ahem.  Well, not quite an epic battle.  More of a bun fight in a London frock shop, perhaps.  But the sorry tale I’m about to tell you is all true - I swear!

Apparently, hard done by Russian exile Boris Berezovsky was slumming it in a London branch of designer store Dolce and Gabbana when he spotted his arch enemy - football magnate Roman Abramovich - shopping his little heart out in the Hermes shop next door.

Quick thinking Boris seized his opportunity.  He ordered one of his loyal bodyguard to rush back to his £300,000 Maybach limousine, and bring him the writ that he just happened to keep with him at all times for just such eventualities (Boris wants to sue Roman for billions, you see).

The next bit though, Boris did all by himself.  He marched up to Abramovich and… well, I’ll let the great Boris B. tell the rest in his own words:

“When he saw me, Abramovich tried to hide behind his bodyguards.  I threw it [the writ] at his feet and told him I was serving him the writ, then I turned around and left the shop.”

A pumped up Boris was later reported to have told reporters:

“It was like a scene from The Godfather!”  

According to ABC News, the quick witted Roman had the presence of mind to:

“pull his hands away, letting the legal documents fall straight to the floor.”

No word yet from the Abramovich camp on whether he was cowering in the corner or, like his esteemed President, trying to emulate the non-violent philosophy of Mahatma Gandhi.  But, according to the Daily Mail, the whole incident was recorded on CCTV, so I doubt it’ll be long before the footage reaches the internet, and we can judge for ourselves the true worth of these mighty individuals. 

Here’s a bit of trivia for you:

For the first time in its history, the 1963 James Bond film “From Russia With Love” will be broadcast on BBC Television.

Previously, the film had only been shown by ITV on terrestrial TV.

Set your video for 9pm, on Sunday 29th July - it’s on BBC2.