Not only did I see big, bold Baltika adverts in each of the free London papers earlier this week, but they’ve taken to advertising on the London Underground:

Sadly the Russian government thought better of taking my sage advice, and has launched itself into the tit-for-tat diplomat expulsions game.  In retaliation for the expulsion of four of its diplomats from Britain, Russia has in turn expelled four British diplomats. 

I guess we should be thankful for small mercies - Russia has restricted itself to a more or less symmetrical response to Britain (as well as expelling diplomats, Russia won’t be issuing any more visas to British officials).  And Putin himself has taken the opportunity to stress that Russia views this weeks events as nothing more than a “mini-crisis” that shouldn’t adversely affect future relations with Britain.

Has anyone noticed that Russia has spent several days pondering its response to the British government decision to deport four of it’s embassy staff? 

I’m beginning to suspect that, for once, Russia is playing the game of international opinion with some aplomb. 

Someone in the Kremlin must have noticed that international support for Britain’s action has been somewhat muted.  There seems to be a fairly widespread (although admittedly not universal) perception that Britain has acted hastily and disproportionately by launching into the ‘diplomatic expulsions game’ without a real strategy in mind, and I think that the Russian government may have realised that, by playing it cool, they can seem to be the country that is acting maturely, responsibly, and can hang on to the moral high ground.

If I were the Russian government, after a few days I’d strongly condemn the British actions, then go on to tell the world that tit for tat expulsions of diplomats is a petty game that Russia just won’t play.  Stress the fact that, regardless of the possible merits of the British case against Andrei Lugovoi, the Russian government has acted entirely properly under its constitution.  And then move on to some other news story.

Sadly, the Russian government isn’t known for its ability to grasp the bigger picture.  Nor is it known for taking my advice…

Earlier today the Sun newspaper broke the story of a foiled assassination attempt on Boris Berezovsky.  A Russian man, with child ‘callously’ in tow (those evil Russians, eh?), was briefly arrested and booted out of the country, and Berezovsky was advised by police to leave the country briefly for his own safety. 

The story broke in one of Britain’s more hysterical newspapers, and this, combined with the revelation that the story was only backed up by Berezovsky’s word resulted in some pretty cynical and widespread dismissals of Berezovsky as a deluded, self-aggrandising fantasist.

But then the British police confirmed the story:

The suspect from Russia was seized in central London on June 21 and handed over to immigration officials two days later, Scotland Yard said.

He had been arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to murder.

This news certainly adds a new dimension to the British government’s decision a few days later to deport a number of Russian embassy staff (aka spies), claiming that it was linked to the Russian government’s refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoi on the charge of murdering Alexander Litvinenko.

There are still lots of questions that need to be answered though.  Such as:

• Why only deport the assassin, rather than arrest him.  Were there problems proving the case?

• Why send Berezovsky out of the country, rather than hide him away in a well guarded British bolthole?

• Why did the British Foreign Minister not mention this attempted assassination when he announced the deportation of Russian embassy personnel, which took place some days later?

British-Russian relations sure are more fun these days, but it must be a nightmare for anyone who tries to seriously analyse them…

As well as getting itself embroiled in a diplomatic spat with the Russian government over the extradition of Andrei Lugovoi and the expulsion of four Russian diplomats, the British government is on the verge of a major diplomatic row with the United States.  The Guardian reports:

A potential diplomatic collision with the US is looming over the corruption allegations against the arms company BAE. The department of justice in Washington has formally demanded that Britain hand over all evidence of secret payments the company made to members of the Saudi royal family to secure huge arms deals.

Which presents an interesting dilemma for the British government.  Should they hand over the evidence, and hang BAE out to dry, or would they be better served by keeping their sticky mitts on the top-secret files and losing the moral high ground to Russia? 

Frankly, I’m surprised the Russian government hasn’t picked up on this problem yet - they could make tremendous mileage out of it in the international PR arena.

The British government has expelled four Russian diplomats, in revenge for Russia’s refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoi for the murder of Alexander Litvinenko (as predicted last week).  British Foreign Minister David Miliband told Parliament:

“We have chosen to expel four diplomats, four particular diplomats, in order to send a clear and proportionate signal to the Russian government about the seriousness of this case.”

No mention of who the diplomats are at this stage, or why they have been chosen, but I’d assume that the British government have taken the opportunity to do a bit of ‘house cleaning’ and boot out some suspected spies.

As well as expelling a few token diplomats, Miliband announced co-operation in other areas was to be dramatically scaled back, including restrictions on visas applied for by the Russian government (although not by individual Russian citizens):

“We shall review the extent of our cooperation with Russia on a range of issues, and as an initial step we have suspended visa facilitation negotiations with Russia and made other changes to visa practice.”

The move have met with cross-party support in the UK, but unsurprisingly, didn’t impress the Russian government.  Russia’s Foreign Ministry chief spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said:

“London’s position is immoral.  Moreover, in London they should clearly realise that such provocative actions masterminded by the British authorities will not be left without an answer and cannot but entail the most serious consequences for Russian-British relations”.

Strong words, and I’d expect a retaliatory expulsion within days, if not hours.  If you’re a British spy (sorry, diplomat) I’d start packing your bags.  And if you’re planning to travel to Russia on government business, I’d get your visa application in quick, before the policy changes… 

So that’s the news - now the question.  Does anyone out there actually think that today’s action will make the extradition of Andrei Lugovoi more likely? 

Image from fortune cookie.

The British press is full of rumours that a number of Russian diplomats are soon to be expelled from Britain, following Russia’s formal refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoi to face charges of murdering Alexander Litvinenko. 

This extract is from the Telegraph, but all the other major papers have covered the story in a similar vein:

[…] A former diplomat familiar with Russia said it was “entirely likely” that Britain could decide to expel a “handful” of middle- to low-ranking diplomats because other options are limited.

Britain no longer gives Russia direct aid, removing the possibility of slashing funding, while reducing co-operation in the business sphere would only hurt British investors. Britain is Russia’s largest foreign investor, with interests of more than £33 billion. A wave of mutual expulsions would crystallise what is already regarded as the worst crisis in Anglo-Russian relations since the Cold War.

I can’t really see how any of the options are particularly appealing to Gordon Brown’s new government - really they do little more than demonstrate Britain’s impotence when it comes to telling Russia what to do.  And, lets face it - whatever Britain does eventually decide to do, Russia will treat as a provocation, and respond in spades.

To be honest, I can’t really think of any sensible ways in which the British government can react to Russia’s refusal to extradite Lugovoi.  Has anyone else got any ideas?  I, and probably the British government, would be glad to hear them…

Update 16 July 2007: Sadly, the foreign office didn’t take my advice, and decided to expel four Russian diplomats anyway. 

Yesterday was a busy day for Boris Berezovsky.  Well, actually, the man himself was probably sat at home in London sipping a particularly fine wine, but it was a busy day for his prosecutors over in Moscow. 

Not only did Berezovsky’s trial in absentia on charges of embezzling Aeroflot’s funds begin, but he was also separately charged for calling for the violent overthrow of the Russian government. 

I don’t know all that much about the details of the Aeroflot case but I doubt his business dealings were any cleaner than those of other oligarchs of the same era, so I wouldn’t risk any money of my own betting against him being guilty.  And I certainly wouldn’t bet against him being found guilty by the court.

On the second charge, though - calling for the violent overthrow of the Russian government - I think they’ve got him pretty much bang to rights.  After all, if you give interviews to major newspapers claiming that you are “bankrolling people close to the president who are conspiring to mount a palace coup,” then you can’t really have too many complaints if the folks in the palace get a bit miffed.

The Financial Times is distinctly unimpressed by Gazprom’s posturing in the British energy market:

For all its macho posturing, all Gazprom has managed to acquire so far in the UK is Pennine Natural Gas, in Wilmslow, Cheshire, which has about 600 customers. Pennine employs just 12 people in the UK - hardly the path to world domination.

While the Russians have been teasing their British counterparts, the Spanish have managed to snap up Scottish Power and the Malaysians have built a stake in Centrica.

But if Gazprom wants to be taken seriously as a western shareholder-friendly company then it must put its money where its mouth is and launch a takeover bid.

Ouch.

In a rather mysterious statement, Gazprom announced earlier this week that it planned to increase its presence in Britain. 

A Gazprom spokesman confirmed:

“In the near future there will be a deal to further increase the customer base on the British market. Anyone who will be in London for the Wimbledon tennis tournament will know about it.”

Speculation immediately centred on Centrica, owner of British Gas, and their shares have risen considerably.

But I’d imagine such a big move for such a strategic British company would raise some already high-up eyebrows in the British government, and would probably, therefore, be doomed to failure.

More likely, Gazprom is concentrating on developing its British market share bit by bit, and is likely to make a move for a smaller mid-size British company. 

Inside the building the reception rooms are magnificently grand with high ceilings, mahogany doors and antique furniture. On a coffee table stood a plate of Jammie Dodger biscuits, meticulously arranged in the shape of a rose. Next to them was a bowl of Ferrero Rocher chocolates.

Old school ambassador-ing, at its very best.

(By the way - do they have the ‘Ambassador, you are really spoiling us’ Ferrero Rocher advert outside of the UK? Or Jammy Dodgers?)

British newspaper the Sun is giving away a nuclear bunker worth $10,000 to one lucky reader:

The Sun cannot guarantee this shelter will withstand a nuclear war. In the event of it failing, please do not ring us to complain.

Silly, but an indication of how the failing relations between Russia and the West are being hyped up in the mass media.

(The Sun, although perhaps not the most sensible of newspapers, is by far the most widely read paper in the UK).

The British Director for Public Prosecutions today announced that he intended to charge Andrei Lugovoi with the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, and called for him to be extradited from Russia:

I have today concluded that the evidence sent to us by the police is sufficient to charge Andrey Lugovoy with the murder of Mr Litvinenko by deliberate poisoning.

“I have further concluded that a prosecution of this case would clearly be in the public interest.

“In those circumstances, I have instructed CPS lawyers to take immediate steps to seek the early extradition of Andrey Lugovoy from Russia to the United Kingdom, so that he may be charged with murder - and be brought swiftly before a court in London to be prosecuted for this extraordinarily grave crime.”

The problem with this, of course, is that Russian law specifically prohibits extradition, and the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office seems distinctly unimpressed by today’s statement:

“Under the Russian Constitution, Russian citizens cannot be extradited to be tried abroad. Lugovoi is a Russian citizen.”

As far as I can see, the only way in which Lugovoi is going to stand trial for Litvinenko’s murder in the United Kingdom is if he voluntarily gives himself up.  And, realistically, the only way that is going to happen is with the Russian government’s support.

But Russia is almost certain to link any movement on Lugovoi  to a renewed request for the extradition of Boris Berezovsky, the ‘rogue’ billionaire living in London who is, by his own admission, plotting a “coup” against the current Russian government.   

The British courts have already rejected one Russian request for Berezovksy’s extradition, though, and the chances of that decision being reversed are slim. 

So, instead of a court case, we instead face the prospect of an increasingly bitter war of words between the British and Russian governments.

Two British RAF Tornados were scrambled last month to intercept a two Russian Tupolev Tu-142 (Bear) bombers just off the Scottish coast last month, it has emerged. And here’s the picture to prove it:

It seems as though the Russian planes had taken a trip out to watch the Royal Navy’s recent live firing exercise, Operation Neptune Warrior, but were persuaded to turn around as the RAF Tornados flew alongside.

The British press is, rather predictably, reporting in rather gung-ho fashion, harking back to the Cold War era. The Sun quotes Squadron Leader Keith Wardlaw:

“The Russians obviously thought it might be worth having a look and taking some photos. It’s a throwback to the Cold War when they used to fly in to test our reaction times.

“It’s normal to let such aircraft know we are there by pulling up alongside and they left quietly.”

Paul Jackson, of Jane’s All The World’s Aircraft, said: “All the RAF are doing is telling them, ‘We could do this for real if we wanted to, so go and tell your mates back home.’

Paul Jackson, the editor of Jane’s Almanac brought a bit of contextual sense to the reporting, but even he couldn’t resist a bit of posturing:

“This aircraft dates back to the 1950s and although the air-frame might look dated it is still highly effective in terms of long-range maritime reconnaissance”.

“The exercise was in international waters and the Russians have got as much right to be there as we have. We do it to them, they do it to us.

“All the RAF did was to tell them, ‘We could do this for real if we wanted’.”

I’m sure the top brass over in Moscow will suffer a sleepless night tonight…

Almost half of Russian voters think that this year’s parliamentary elections will be marred by fraud, and will not reflect the will of the people, is the key finding of a suvey by the Levada Centre.

Some key stats:

• 45% think that the election result will not reflect the will of the people
• 39% think local officials will fix election results
• 25% think opposition candidates may be excluded from the election
• 8% think the election will be fair
• 33% will consider the new parliament illegitimate
• 65% want an “against all candidates” option on ballot papers

Interesting results, although one should be careful not to read too much into them.  I suspect that, if you asked a random sample of British voters whether they thought Parliamentary elections in the UK reflected the will of the people, you’d receive a somewhat similar answer.

And electoral fraud isn’t just a problem confined to Russia - take a look at this roundup of electoral fraud (and other problems) from last week’s local elections in the UK.