If you thought that, just because Yukos doesn’t exist anymore, Yukos would leave the front pages - well, you were wrong.

Yukos may no longer exist, but it’s shareholders do. And they want the Russian government to give them their money back. All $100 billion of it.

Yukos’ angry shareholders have given up on the Russian legal system, and decided to take advantage of the Energy Charter Treaty, which came into force in 1998. The Treaty specifically notes that companies cannot be nationalised without compensating its owners and goes on to impose legally binding arbitration on signatory states.

There’s just one problem - no one is quite sure whether arbitration applies to all of the states who have signed the treaty, or just those who have actually ratified the treaty. And Russia being Russia, of course, has yet to ratify the treaty.

The Telegraph outlines the various arguments for and against:

So does Russia have to submit the Yukos dispute to binding international arbitration? Look at the wording of the treaty, say the Russians: arbitration is compulsory only for states that are contracting parties; a contracting party is defined as a state that has consented to be bound by the treaty and for which the treaty is in force; and provisional application applies, by definition, only to countries where the treaty is not yet in force.

Not so, say the Yukos investors. If you look at the text of Article 45 and the treaty as a whole, it is clear from the context that “contracting party” was meant to include countries that have agreed to apply the treaty provisionally. Provisional application does not violate the Russian constitution, they insist, and Russia should not be permitted to escape its obligations now.

Ordinarily, I could see this becoming a massive wrangle which would either tie the arbitrators themselves in knots or just give the Russian government the opportunity to refuse to take part, and to then ignore any eventual verdict.

But, surprising everyone, the Russian government seems perfectly happy to submit to arbitration, regardless of whether or not it is actually obliged to.

At first glance, this seems like a big risk - if the arbitrators ruled against Russia, debt collectors could pursue any Russian assets held worldwide with the exception of those that hold diplomatic immunity, such as embassies.

Presumably, Russia has taken a good hard look at previous international arbitrations, and seen that they rarely come up with shock decisions - particularly when the government party can make a reasonable argument that it followed due process domestically.

I would expect the Russian government to make a case that the sale of Yukos was to cover the debts of the company (and, by implication) its shareholders. The settlement of those debts they will argue was, therefore, adequate compensation for the seizure of Yukos and its assets.

Compared to this, I think the Yukos’ lawyers are going to be fighting an uphill battle…

Robert Amsterdam posts an interview with one of the men who has shared a cell with Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Here’s a snippet from the author’s introduction:

They wouldn’t put just anybody in the same cell as THIS jailbird. No, they would place a “brood hen” – a specially trained prisoner-informant. The “brood hen’s” job is to listen and to hear everything his cellmate lives and breathes, and then to report all of this to those who put him in the cell to sit there – just like a farmer puts a real brood hen on eggs to sit on them until they hatch.

Fascinating.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has released a statement from jail on the new charges of embezzlement that he now faces.  Essentially, Siberia’s most famous jailbird seems to have decided that he has nothing left to play with but his martyr card:

My task in the upcoming process is to demonstrate by my own example that current Russia is a country with custom-designed rule of law, where the law enforcement system, as well as the international cooperation of law enforcement agencies, are being used not only for the fight against criminality, but also in corrupt officials’ political and personal interests. […]
I am not scared by the new verdict. Does the number of years in jail I get under the false accusations make any difference at all? No decent person in the world would believe my pursuers (supporters of “the second term of Khodorkovsky”) anyway. Platon’s and my personal destiny is defined solely by our motherland’s destiny and its face after the power change in 2008.

I do believe that the truth and fairness will prevail.

I wish I could be more optimistic.

Meanwhile, for some reasoned analysis of the latest twist in the Khodorkovsky saga, check out the Streetwise Professor’s ominously titled post - “Mr Khodorkovsky, Meet Mr Kafka”.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his partner Platon Lebedev were charged yesterday with the additional offence of embezzlement of $25 billion.

I’ll say that again - embezzlement of $25 billion.

Now, how on earth does a man who, at the hight of his riches was worth a mere $15 billion, manage to steal that kind of money? To me, the Russian government’s decision to use this figure as the basis of their prosecution, shouts out ‘politically motivated charge’

Robert Amsterdam, Khodorkovsky’s US lawyer, has more about the day’s events on his blog (obviously, bear in mind when reading that he has a clear bias in favour of his client…):

Khodorkovsky and Lebedev themselves are being guarded by a phalanx of OMON troops wearing crash helmets and balaclava ski masks and armed with machine guns. These troops have been brought in from elsewhere in Russia, and do not answer to the local authorities. Schmidt, who has worked as a lawyer since Soviet times and thought he had seen it all, says that he has never encountered the kind of draconian security procedures that are in place at the Chita SIZO isolator prison where his client is being held. To visit Khodorkovsky, he has to undergo a full search of all his belongings and pass through thirty locked doors and gates.

Schmidt reports that it has been announced that the actual trial will take place inside the Chita isolator prison. Even if we ignore the fact that by law it should be taking place in Moscow, the very idea of holding it inside the walls of this high-security facility means that even if the trial is formally declared to be “open”, in fact nobody - except those the power chooses - will be allowed to attend because they will not be able to obtain security clearance from the prison authorities.

One final thought - I’ve noticed that a few news outlets are trying to link these charges to the 2008 Presidential elections:

Khodorkovsky would be eligible for parole in October, after serving half his term. With parliamentary elections slated for December and a March 2008 presidential vote - which Putin is barred by term limits from contesting - analysts said the president and those around him want to ensure Khodorkovsky remains behind bars.

For the Kremlin, “The main thing is that he doesn’t get out before 2008,” said Yuri Korgunyuk of the Indem think tank in Moscow. “They very much wouldn’t want that to happen.”

Don’t believe a word of it.

Khodorkovksy might be eligible for parole in October, but the chances of his actually being granted that parole were precisely zero - even befor these new charges were laid. Any talk of 2008 is just his supporters trying to whip up some media interest.

In reality, these charges are designed to keep Khodorkovksy behind bars for the duration of the next Presidency, leaving the next President of Russia - whoever he or she may be - with one less problem to worry about during their first term.

“Khodorkovsky content with choice of prison” reads the interfax.ru headline.

Khodorkovsky posted a statement on his official website on Tuesday to “thank” the authorities for sending him “to a land of political prisoners, convicts and the Decembrists [participants in the 1825 uprising in Imperial Russia].”

Somehow, I don’t think the wonderful facilities are the reason for his contentment.

By the way, lawyers reckon that, with parole for good behaviour, Khodorkovsky could be eligible for release from prison in 2009, which would open the way nicely for whoever follows Putin to release Khodorkovsky early in their Presidency without having to go down the Presidential pardon route.

Following his sentencing, ex-Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky has been sent to a jail in Siberia - YaG-14/10 to be precise, which is near Chita. His co-defendant, Platon Lebedev has been sent to a prison in the Arctic region of Yamalo-Nenets, 2,000 km north of Moscow.

There is some concern about the legality of these moves, with his lawyers, and human rights activists saying that Russian law stipulates a prisoner should be imprisoned close enough to his home city that relatives can visit relatively easily (which, of course, would mean that he would have to be somewhere close to Moscow):

His confinement in IK-10 camp will put him a six-hour flight plus a seven-hour car ride from Moscow, and human rights bodies accused authorities of violating Russian law by sending him so far from his home and family.

“The law says that a general regime prisoner should serve his term somewhere close to his home. The Russian authorities are spitting on their own law,” said Yevgeny Ikhlov of the All-Russian Movement for Human Rights.

“This is being done on purpose to complicate as much as possible Khodorkovsky’s contacts with his family, his defence and with society. Khodorkovsky is a prominent public figure and prominent opposition ideologist and everything is being done to isolate him,” Ikhlov told Reuters.

Clearly the choice of his prison - far, far away from Moscow and the prying eyes of the international press - was intentional. Whether it breaks Russian law, I have no idea. If it does, expect to see Khodorkovsky’s lawyers back in action pretty soon.

The BBC, by the way, has a profile of Khodorkovsky’s prison - which used to service Uranium mines in the 1960s:

Today, YaG-14/10 is chiefly a garment factory where inmates sew protective clothing for the prison system and the police, as well as making bed linen and doing private orders.

Khodorkovsky will find himself about 4,700km (3,000 miles) east of Moscow.

On the evening the name of his prison was revealed, it was -9C in Krasnokamensk; by January, the average daily temperature should range between -18C and -33C.

According to Zabinfo, most of YaG-14/10’s inmates are serving between three and five years and the average age is 24 - significantly younger than Khodorkovsky, 42.

The most common conviction is theft with 40% of inmates sentenced for it.

Russia Blog has more information on the prison, which seems to indicate that, as Russian prisons go, YaG-14/10 isn’t so bad:

As of 2002, the colony had 1389 prisoners. There were rumors that the prisoners were forced to work in the mines, but the rumors were false. Today, the colony is one of the top prison facilities in the country; the prisoners live in two-story brick buildings, and sleep in bunks. There is a TV in the recreation room, and on the weekends prisoners are allowed to attend a “club”. Prisoners can be employed to sew textiles or work in a metal shop.

By the looks of this report from Mosnews, Khodorkovsky has already found a useful way to occupy his time while he serves at Putin’s pleasure - he’s going to write a PhD dissertation:

Mikhail Khodorkovsky is a graduate of the National Institute of Oil and Gas in Moscow. His Ph.D thesis will likely be dedicated to his work. According to Russian law he can defend it even in prison.

Good for him.

According to Mosnews, though, Khodorkovsky has brought two suitcases filled with books with him. Question: Just how much luggage is the average Russian prisoner allowed to bring with them?

Now that Mikhail Khodorkovsky is no longer eligible to stand for Russian Duma Seat #201, it looks like the race is wide open. Which means, of course, that candidates are popping out of the woodwork left, right, and centre (not to mention a few other interesting locations):

Renowned satirist Viktor Shenderovich and former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar’s daughter have joined an increasingly circus-like race for a State Duma seat in a Moscow by-election, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s campaign team said Tuesday that it would support one of the two because it could not find a suitable candidate to replace the jailed billionaire.

My star candidate at the moment, though, has to be retired FSB Colonel Vladimir Kvachkov. He’s currently in jail, accused of attempting to assassinate energy oligarch Anatoly Chubais.

Oh, Mikhail, Mikhail, look what you’ve done - you’ve made a mockery of Russian democracy!

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Yukos boss and now full-time jailbird, has been pretty busy over the past couple of weeks.  Yesterday saw the beginning of an appeal against his conviction for tax fraud and, predictably, the day ended in farce. 

Cast your minds back to the original trial, earlier this year, and you’ll remember the judges droning on for day after day as they painstakingly read out every word of their judgment.  Back then, they wanted to drag out the climax of the trail as long as possible as an attempt to dilute the media’s attention.

All of a sudden, though, it’s Khodorkovsky who wants to drag things out as long as possible.

Mr Khodorkovsky, dressed in jeans and a brown suede jacket, told the court: "I cannot defend my interests in the appeal without a lawyer familiar with this case."

The move angered state prosecutor Dmitry Shokhin, who called it "a banal attempt to stretch out the court hearing".

Mr Khodorkovsky’s legal team say they have yet to receive an agreed record of the original trial.

Why this sudden reluctance to face his day in court?  Because Khodorkovsky has found a loophole in the law that will allow him to stand for election to the State Duma - and the loophole won’t close until his appeal is complete.  Unfortunately for Khodorkovsky, though, the election is in December, and the appeal trial is extremely unlikely - under normal circumstances at least - more than a few weeks.  So, expect an avalanche of delaying tactics from the Khodorkovsky camp, while the prosecutors in turn attempt to hurry things along.

Both camps, meanwhile, are waging a merry little media war, each trying to convince the world that Khodorkovsky is a martyr that the people will support in droves, or a chancer who has no real chance of halting the grinding wheels of Russian justice.

Protests, both pro- and anti- Khodorkovsky, are continuing to hit the streets hard.  Neeka’s Backlog provides an eyewitness report (and another here) and a series of photos of this weekend’s events.  She finishes off with this comment, which seems to demonstrate that perhaps Khodorkovsky doesn’t actually have all that much support among the Russian public… but that if protests against him continue, Putin may play right into his hands.

The most interesting thing about the rally was this: if it hadn’t been for all the police, and OMON, and the mad honking of the soccer fans, the pro-Khodorkovsky rally would’ve gone virtually unnoticed. Why Putin is giving all the publicity to the people everyone considers his enemies is beyond me.

That’s very nice of him, I think, though somewhat silly.

Finally, it looks as though Khodorkovksy may be starting a trend. Ex Intelligence Department Colonel Vladimir Kvachkov, who is accused of trying to assassinate energy oligarch Anatoly Chubais is also considering standing for election, according to Kommersant.

The Federal Prison Service, in perhaps the most blatantly stupid comment ever, have claimed that Mikhail Khodorkovsky is most definitely not on hunger strike.  In fact, if the prison authorities are to be believed, Khodorkovsky is eating like a king:

Prison authorities denied on Wednesday that jailed former Yukos CEO
Mikhail Khodorkovsky had gone on a hunger strike over what he saw as
unfair treatment of his ex-business associate. Khodorkovsky purchased
4,200 rubles ($147) worth of food products Tuesday and receives $1,000
worth of food every month, the Moscow branch of the Federal Prison
Service said Wednesday.

$1,000 dollars per month???  Good Lord, what are they feeding the man?  Caviar and truffles?  If he’s eating his way through this much food, Khodorkovsky needs to go on a hunger strike to protect his own health, not Platon Lebedev’s.

News is beginning to break that Mikhail Khodorkovsky is on a dry hunger strike - he is refusing all food and water - in support of his jailed colleague Platon Lebedev.  Lebedev, who is thought to be ill, was placed into solitary confinement last week after allegedly refusing to take his daily walk.

The BBC quotes the following extracts from Khodorkovsky’s statement, read by his lawyer:

"On August 19… my comrade Platon Lebedev was moved to
a 3 sq m [32 sq ft] isolation cell. Platon is seriously ill," the
statement said.

"It is obvious that they threw my friend into the
isolation cell to get their revenge on me, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, for
[giving] articles and interviews."

"He knows he is not alone," the statement added.

"Let the Kremlin think it is showing strength, in fact it is a display of their weakness and fear.

"Being in no condition to enter an open political
discussion with me, they use the last weapons - an isolation cell and a
common cell."

I hate to sound cynical, but does anybody really imagine that this dry hunger strike will last? I don’t.

All hunger strikes are - to an extent - publicity stunts.  Some are more desperate than others, but the aim is always to appeal to the decency and sympathy of outsiders.  And Khodorkovsky’s is no exception.  But I do wonder whether this is a mistake on his part. 

I don’t necessarily doubt Khodorkovsky’s sincerity, and the importance he attaches to the plight of his friend.  But I don’t think that many others will believe that Platon Lebedev’s isolation is an issue worth making such a strong statement over.  People aren’t going to cry out in sufficient numbers to force the Russian government to back down over the issue and Khodorkovsky will have to either continue his strike or back down himself.  Given his current political position - martyr, potential (although still long shot) challenger to Putin - it simply isn’t in his interests to continue the strike to an extreme over this issue.  If he does, he’ll look like he is overreacting.  And, if he backs down he will lose face. 

After a quiet week, another hint comes from the Khodorkovsky camp that he might run for a seat in the Duma:

MOSCOW, August 23 (RIA Novosti) - Russian tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, sentenced to nine years in prison for tax evasion and fraud, is contemplating running for parliament, his defense lawyer Yuri Schmidt said Tuesday.

Schmidt said the former Yukos CEO would put forward his candidacy if "supported by people whose opinion really matters to him."

But only a hint, mind you - and not actually a substanitally different hint to the one Khodorkovsky gave us a couple of weeks ago, where he said:

[…] if I receive  letters from people whose opinions are important for me, I will agree [to run]. 

So, should we conclude from this that Khodorkovsky is (a) genuinely agonising over whether he should risk running, (b) having great fun winding up Putin and the international press, or (c) trying (without success so far) to find someone out there to support him?

Beats me.

Lyndon has been writing more about Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and the speculation over whether he will - indeed, whether he can - run for a seat on the State Duma.  Lyndon’s opinion is that he won’t be allowed to run, but hopes that he does:

If they [the authorities] use clumsy enough methods (and based on the Russian authorities’ track record on dealing with situations like this, they probably will), all they’ll do is cement Khodorkovsky’s reputation as a modern-day dissident and a political prisoner. For this reason, the cynic in me thinks that he should go ahead and start campaigning - it will be good for his image in the long run. And the idealist in me also thinks he should do it, to exercise his rights as a citizen and to continue to bring attention to the inanity of his imprisonment. Along with many other Russia-watchers and Russians, I eagerly await further developments in this story.

I’d certainly agree that the authorities will pull out all the stops in an effort to prevent Khodorkovsky from running - if he were to win, the result would send shock waves through Russian politics, and if he were to lose in a clearly crooked election, the Kremlin would be humiliated in the eyes of the Russian public and the world. On the other hand, Khodorkovsky has much at stake, too - what if he discovers he has no public support?  Leonid Radzikhovsky, writing in Ezhednevny Zhurnal (translated by Lyndon) sets out exactly what is at stake, for Putin and for Khodorkovsky:

Well, and the most important thing: this would be not just a vote on the "Khodorkovsky question," but on the "Putin question," it would to some extent show the real feelings of people toward the authorities and to their most implacable foe. If Khodorkovsky (as many are certain) were to receive an insignificant percentage of votes, this would become for him both a personal drama (his illusions about the people would be destroyed) and a sobering moment. But if he were to come close to winning or actually make it into the Duma, then that would be a small political earthquake, and perhaps a portent of larger tremors.

Finally a couple of quick predictions.  Now, I’m the first to admit that I know virtually nothing of Russian electoral law, so consider the following speculation about as reliable the predictions you’d get from reading tea leaves:

• I wonder if there is some clause that says that politicians who want to stand for the Duma must register their candidacy in person.  Khodorkovsky would have problems fulfilling such a criteria, being currently under lock and key.  If not this particular method, then I’d expect something similar.
• No matter what they throw at Khodorkovsky, I think he’ll come out of this smelling of roses.

Jailed Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky has announced that he is considering standing for election to the State Duma in an upcoming by-election.

"I  am absolutely confident that they will not allow me to run. But if I receive  letters from people whose opinions are important for me, I will agree,  even  being  aware of the fact that, firstly, they will not let me win  the  elections,  and, secondly, that renewed repression will follow,"  Khodorkovsky’s  lawyer Yury Shmidt quoted the former Yukos CEO as saying.

According to a report in Vedmosti, quoted by RIA Novosti, several senior liberal politicians have already asked Khodorkovsky to run. 

At first glance, the chances of Khodorkovsky running for the Duma would seem absurd.  After all, he’s in jail.  However, the deputy head of the Central Election Commission has gone on record to confirm that Khodorkovsky is eligible to stand in the by-election, although he does cast some doubt on whether he will actually be able to:

"Under the law, he [Khodorkovsky] has this right. Time will show if he is registered [on time]," Deputy Chairman of the commission Oleg Vilyashev told reporters on Wednesday, commenting on press reports that some right-wing politicians had advised Khodorkovsky, 42, to run for a seat in the lower chamber of parliament, the State Duma, in a Moscow by-election.

Vilyashev went on to clarify that Khodorkovsky was eligible because, although he had been convicted, his appeal against the conviction had not yet been confirmed.

If Khodorkovsky does stand for election (is allowed to stand for election?) and goes on to win a seat in the Duma, this will really set the cat amongst the pigeons in Russian politics.  It would show that Khodorkovsky is a credible challenger to Putin (or whoever is nominated to succeed Putin) in an electoral contest.

If Khodorkovsky were to become a Duma representative, it would pose a real question as to his legal status.  As a Duma representative, Khodorkovsky would have immunity from prosecution, guaranteed under the Constitution. 

1. Deputies to the Federation Council and deputies to the State Duma shall possess immunity throughout their term in office. A deputy may not be detained, arrested, searched except when detained in the act of perpetrating a crime, and may not be subject to personal search except when such search shall be authorized by law to ensure the safety of other people.
2. The question of stripping a deputy of immunity shall be decided on the recommendation of the Prosecutor-General of the Russian Federation by the corresponding chamber of the Federal Assembly.

I’m certainly no expert on Russian law, though, so I have to say I have no idea as to whether this applies to someone who has already been convicted of a crime, but is appealing the verdict.  I’d imagine it’s probably something that Russian lawyers don’t agree on, though, and it could spark yet another huge legal case.

I’m still in shock about this announcement, and these are just my initial reactions.  Take them for what you will and bear in mind that Khodorkovsky still has to overcome three major obstacles:

• First, Khodorkovsky must persuade himself that it is worth running and that he wants to take this risk - especially when he considers that his popularity is greater outside of Russia than it is within Russia.  If he harbours political ambitions and loses in what is perceived as a fair fight, this could destroy his political career. 
• Second, the Central Election Commission must confirm that he is eligible to run.  His opponents will place huge obstacles in his way but he appears to have the law on his side.
• Finally, he must actually win the election…

Update:  I’d been meaning to post on the news that Khodorkovsky was recently moved to a new cell with 10 other inmates, but the news that he might stand for election superceded it.  The change of cell means that not only is Khodorkovsky now living in far more crowded accomodation, but has lost most of his priviliges (fridge, tv, etc).

Earlier today, speculation as to the motives for the move centred around Left Turn, an article that Khodorkovsky had recently written.  Prison officials denied that the move was in response to the article, and explainted that he had been moved because his original cell was being "renovated."  This explanation was, as you would expect, greeted with much scepticism. 

In the light of today’s news, I’m forced to wonder if the Kremlin somehow got news that Khodorkovsky was considering standing for election, and decided to give him just a tiny warning of their power over him…

Or is that just me being overly cynical again?

Update 2: This excellent overview report in The Moscow Times gives a few further details, including the district in which Khodorkovsky may run:

Analysts said the Kremlin would be unlikely to allow Khodorkovsky to run, since he would have a good chance of winning in the Universitetsky district, an area that is home to many of the city’s intelligentsia.

Update 3: Nothing much more to write at this stage - the only key variable at the moment is whether Khodorkovsky decides to run or not, and we’ll have to wait for the man himself to find the outcome of that decision. 

In the meantime, two posts worth checking out on the affair:  First, Robert at Publius Pundit notes that yesterday also brought the announcement that a group of Far Eastern lawmakers have drafted an amendment to the constitution that would allow Putin to run for a third consecutive term:

Maybe we should just go ahead and change his title to “President-for-life Putin” while we’re ahead of the game. That way it won’t come as any shock when the rubberstamp Duma eventually approves a constitutional amendment like this.

And Lyndon at Scraps of Moscow has a roundup of all the major stories in Russia yesterday, including the Khodorkovsky will he won’t he, including plenty of links to Russian news sources on the story in both Russian and English.

As there will be no Amnesty International letter-writing campaign to secure Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s release, his supporters have decided to start their own campaign to mark Khodorkovsky’s 42nd birthday on Sunday (his second in prison).  A website has been set up where you can write a birthday greeting for Khodorkovsky, and they promise that all messages will be delivered directly to him in prison. 

So far the birthday wishes page is only in Russian, although you can, of course, type your birthday greetings in English (Khodorkovsky speaks pretty good English, I believe).  If you don’t speak Russian, however, there is a slightly cut-down english language version of the site that you can look at to get the latest news on his appeal.

Two weeks was all it took for a Russian court to say what we had known they would say all along - that Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev are guilty. 

They’ve been sentenced to nine years each, only slightly less than the 10 year sentences that the prosecution had requested.  The third defendant, Andrei Krainov was handed a 5 year suspended sentence, again only slightly below the 5.5 years requested by the prosecution.  Presumably, the court was showing it’s lenience.

More later.